Predictable isn’t always bad. Billion-dollar businesses have been created out of the recognition that we are creatures of comfort, and that, at the end of the day, we often follow behavioral patterns.
Personally, I stress eat. You might crack your knuckles when you’re uncomfortable. Former Patriots assistants who’ve landed head coaching jobs elsewhere turn to other former Patriots in desperate attempts to keep their franchises from collapsing. Life is about accepting those tics and loving who we are anyway.
So it goes that the Jimmy Garoppolo–Raiders union was cemented hours into the early-tampering period. Las Vegas had already jettisoned Derek Carr one season after signing him to an extension with more outs than a celebrity prenuptial agreement. This was always going to happen, as sure as death, taxes and Gorilla Rilla.
That doesn’t mean it was the wrong move for the Raiders. In fact, it was brilliant. Garoppolo, should he remain healthy, would make them a legitimate playoff contender in 2023 within the most loaded division in football. That also doesn’t mean Carr is bad or that the Saints were somehow sold damaged goods. Win-win scenarios still exist. This is one of them.
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If we were to chart quarterbacks based on who we’d entrust a franchise to, Garoppolo and Carr may overlap, stuck near the upper-middle tier. Of course, it goes without saying that Garoppolo is infinitely more valuable to someone such as Josh McDaniels than Carr ever was. I would venture to guess that Carr, too, is more suited for a system inspired by Sean Payton, which gussies up a West Coast offense with enough stage magic and complementary run action to maximize Carr’s unique quarterbacking profile.
The Raiders avoided multiple worst-case scenarios. The first would have been to jam themselves into a dysfunctional marriage. Last season, Carr’s touchdown volume was down, his interceptions were up and his yards per attempt were the lowest they’ve been since 2017. There were enough moments during games where it was clear the ideal throw would have been out of Carr’s hand about a split second sooner. His 2.93 snap-to-throw time was among the longest in the NFL (but, especially following his renaissance under Jon Gruden, was largely excused and understood because he made some great second- or third-read touchdown throws). Garoppolo, meanwhile, is more suited to play in a regimented structure. His 2.66 snap-to-throw time was far closer to that of Tom Brady, or someone who has already preprogrammed the destination of the football to some degree.
The second worst-case scenario for Las Vegas would’ve been to pin itself into a situation where it would have to draft Carr’s replacement and force that person to play immediately.
Garoppolo works in Las Vegas because there will be no lag time in acclimating to Davante Adams. A McDaniels offense with a decisive presnap-determined thrower is one that will not depend as much on chemistry or understanding. Just watch Garoppolo’s tape from his years in San Francisco. While it matters that he was accompanied by one of the best supporting casts of the past decade, and it also matters that he made some incorrect reads that still led to massive gains thanks to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle mauling potential tacklers, it also matters that, most of the time, what Kyle Shanahan uttered into the mouthpiece of his headset is what occurred on the field. It’s also worth mentioning that a fully utilized Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller (should they all remain on the roster) isn’t an off-the-cliff drop-off for Garoppolo.
While the systems are different, the Raiders, too, enjoy predictability. The Patriots built a dynasty on predictability in the sense that they mastered the core tenets of a simple system that could pick apart a defense by its weaknesses. Ask coaches who used to work there why they never seemed to develop a more modern marriage of the run and the pass, like we’re seeing pioneered by Shanahan and Sean McVay in different ways. It’s because they didn’t need to (until it was far too late; Brady moved on to Tampa Bay and the Patriots hired Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to change it over the course of an offseason).
With the Raiders, we will see fewer games this year where the offensive balance rocks like a ship in choppy waters. In New Orleans, we will see fewer games this year where the offense seems to be crawling through swampland.
Garoppolo will provide McDaniels with a familiar sense of security. In that way, it doesn’t really matter that we all saw it coming from a mile away.
