Scotland take on Hungary in their final group-stage game of Euro 2024.
Steve Clarke's side head into a crucial clash in Stuttgart with progression into the knockout rounds possible with either a win or a draw.
However, Scotland could be eliminated even with a win - despite no side having ever failed to qualify with four points in the group.
Here, we explain how tonight's result will impact Scotland's chances of progressing at Euro 2024.
If Scotland win
Scotland's best chance to progress is, of course, with a win over Hungary tonight.
A win would see Clarke's side move to four points and with a shot at even finishing second in Group A rather than as a best-placed third-place side.
To finish second: Scotland need a win over Hungary and a Germany win against Switzerland with a six goal-swing, with Scotland scoring three goals at a minimum.
To finish third and qualify: Scotland must win and then await the results of other matches in group stage to see if they qualify. Barring a staggering four of five scenarios coming to fruition then Scotland would progress as one of the best-placed third-place teams and face either Spain, Portugal or the team finishing first in Group E in the last 16.
However, Scotland could still be eliminated from Euro 2024 even with a win against Hungary - but it requires four of five scenarios to go against us.
For that to happen, Albania would have to beat Spain, Slovenia beat England and Denmark and Serbia not to draw, Austria to draw or win against France, either match in Group E being a draw and Georgia to beat Portugal.
No team has ever been eliminated from the tournament with four points from the group stage but as brilliantly explained by Scotland's Coefficient on X - it is still a possibility.
If Scotland draw
Here's where things get interesting. Scotland could still advance from Group A even with a draw against Hungary.
However, it would require a helping hand from other results. It would require two of three result pairings to help us out- and for two other third-place sides having a worse record than two points and a minus-four goal difference.
For that to happen, we'd need two of the following three pairs of results to happen:
- Spain beat Albania and Italy beat Croatia.
- Denmark beat Serbia and England beat Slovenia by five goals - four goals if Scotland score more against Hungary than Slovenia against England.
- Portugal beat Georgia and Turkey beat Czech Republic
Corrected to say: 'Switzerland' victory instead of 'Germany' & Austria didn't lose to 'Netherlands' instead of 'France' pic.twitter.com/3TwfdWWC6z
— Scotland’s Coefficient (@scotlandscoeff1) June 22, 2024
If Scotland lose
It's a straightforward situation if Scotland lose. A loss would mean instant elimination from Euro 2024.
Should Scotland fall to defeat against Hungary then they will end the competition on one point and be heading home.
