Everton, Leeds United and Burnley are locked in a three-way battle to avoid the drop and a £55.6m shortfall in their accounts next season.
The unlucky team that finishes 18th in the Premier League is facing a whopping financial black hole next season, new research from Mirror Football has found. Norwich City and Watford have already had their fates sealed with just one spot left to fill.
Leeds enjoyed a bumper turnover of £171m in 2020/21, their first season back in the top flight for 16 years and the latest season for which accounts are available. That was despite games being played behind closed doors. It would have been more like £181m with gate receipts included - that’s as much income as in their previous four seasons combined (£177.9m).
Burnley had a turnover of £115.1m in 2020/21 and Everton £193.1m. However, those incomes will significantly drop should either club be relegated. Everton can, of course, allay any fears of the dreaded drop this term if they seal victory in their penultimate game of the season.
Frank Lampard's side welcome Crystal Palace to Goodison Park on Thursday with a win guaranteeing safety. But any other outcome will ensure a final day shoot-out.
Burnley go to Aston Villa, also on Thursday, and can move out of the bottom three by avoiding defeat at Villa Park. Leeds are in the most precarious position with just one game left to play. All three will contest their final games of the season at 4pm on Sunday.
Clubs demoted from the top flight between 2016/17 and 2019/20 - last season hasn’t been included due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic - saw their turnovers drop by an average of £55.6m in the season immediately following relegation. That works out as a drop of 45 per cent on average. The biggest fall in income source was from broadcasting. Broadcast revenues dropped by an average of £43.8m.
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Commercial revenue dropped by an average of £7.5m for clubs in that first season outside the top flight, while matchday income dropped by an average of £2.5m. Financially speaking, then, clubs are desperate to get promotion back to the Premier League as soon as possible. However, only around a quarter of clubs manage it at the first time of asking. There have been 88 relegations from the Premier League between 1991/92 and 2020/21. A total of 25 - which works out at 28 per cent - were promoted back up to the Premier League in their first season.
In stark contrast, the match that will decide who replaces the team in 18th place will offer the biggest cash prize in world football to the winners. This season's Championship play-off final pits Huddersfield Town against Nottingham Forest with the winners of the May 29 showpiece not only guaranteed a place at the top table of English football but also a bumper cash boost to the tune of between £180-200million.
