Last season could have been the closing act for this version of the Los Angeles Clippers. They looked like an elite squad for long stretches, but injuries and slumps ultimately caused another early playoff exit. Paul George’s departure and Kawhi Leonard’s continued knee troubles led many to believe the Clippers may compete for a high lottery pick.
Leonard hasn’t played a game this season, yet the Clippers have been one of the NBA’s most interesting teams. To this point, they’re 14-10 and sit sixth in a stacked Western Conference, just 1.5 games back of the second-seeded Houston Rockets. Los Angeles ranks 13th in net rating (plus-1.8, per Cleaning the Glass).
Winning With Defense
Excellent defense has been the driving force behind Los Angeles’ early success. The Clippers claim the NBA’s seventh-best defensive rating (109.3 points allowed per 100 possessions), helping compensate for a below-average offense (24th, 111.2). Without a true defensive star or an all-league anchor in the middle, their defense is as agnostic as any, swarming offenses with waves of rangy wings.
Center Ivica Zubac defends at a passable level, but he’s not an elite anchor like Rudy Gobert, Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren. The Clippers actually aren’t a fantastic defense when opposing offenses enter the paint — opponents shoot 68.5 percent at the rim against them, the league’s 26th-best mark.
Los Angeles forces offenses out of the painted area with some of the league’s most aggressive help principles. All of the Clippers’ wings are strong defenders. Kris Dunn leads the group, but Nic Batum, Derrick Jones Jr., Amir Coffey and Terance Mann all provide defensive utility.
Pinching help tendencies lead to high opponent 3-point frequencies. Opposing offenses take 41 percent of their shots beyond the arc (tied for fourth-most in the NBA). It’s fair to attribute some of their defensive success to fortunate shot variance. Opponents convert 35.1 percent of their threes against Los Angeles and only five teams sport lower marks than that this season. Still, the Clippers’ defensive wings sprint to close out hard and force tough jumpers whenever possible.
la gap helps as aggressively as any defense in the NBA, forcing offenses to shoot outside of the paint. long rangy wings and guards all make this gameplan work so well pic.twitter.com/BIGypQIGii
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 7, 2024
The Clippers are comfortable playing a math game, forcing poor shooters to punish their heavy helping approach. Domantas Sabonis shot a season-high five triples against the Clippers in their late November blowout victory over the Sacramento Kings. It’s a great example of their strategy delivering positive results, forcing offenses to play at Los Angeles’ pace.
Dunn deserves plenty of credit for this defensive success. He’s been one of the league’s best perimeter defenders so far, leading the NBA in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (plus-3.4) with a huge 3.2 percent steal rate. He’s a ball hawk hunting turnovers and glides through screens to disrupt offensive plans.
Despite Zubac’s limitations in defending in space and blocking shots, his excellent defensive rebounding helps Los Angeles limit second-chance opportunities. The Clippers allow the lowest opponent offensive rebounding rate in the NBA (21.7 percent), spearheaded by Zubac’s tendency to swallow up shots. He’s an elite rebounder on both ends, posting a 28.9 percent defensive rebounding rate (97th percentile) and a 14.1 percent offensive rebounding rate (95th percentile).
James Harden Is Still An Offensive Star
Those second possessions help boost Los Angeles’ otherwise limited offense. Head coach Ty Lue’s team plays through James Harden, who sports a 30 percent usage rate (95th percentile). He’s scoring at the least efficient clip since his rookie season (56 percent true shooting), but his ability to carry offense with special playmaking and shotmaking is still All-Star quality, even at 35 years old.
35 y/o james harden is still one of the league’s best playmakers and all-in-one offensive engines despite his scoring struggles. he’s helped LAC’s offense rise into the top 16 over the last 2 weeks
still deadly as ever in pnr and the clips have athletic finishers to capitalize pic.twitter.com/TLuEJ3uJ2h
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 7, 2024
Zubac and Norman Powell are having career-best scoring seasons, but even those two aren’t enough to lift Los Angeles’ offense to an above average ranking. The Clippers simply lack the perimeter creation outside of Harden and Powell. Most of those elite defensive wings are play finishers, unable to consistently impact winning with the ball in their hands.
In theory, a healthy Leonard would do wonders for fixing these offensive woes. It’s easy to forget Leonard played 68 games at an All-NBA level a season ago, his highest number of games played since 2017 (74).
But counting on Leonard’s health, especially in the postseason, feels more like a pipe dream than a realistic possibility. Maybe, he’ll be fresher for the playoffs if he misses more of the regular season, but even that feels like an unlikely outcome.
The Clippers are a playoff-quality basketball team as is, even without Leonard. Their future is still murky, too good to tank (and lacking in future picks) and not good enough to compete for titles. We’re once again witnessing Lue’s ability to construct a positive defensive infrastructure. That’s reason enough to keep hope alive that the Clippers can pry this window open and remain relevant.
Regardless of the long-term outlook, the current Clippers are worth praising. Harden is an evergreen star and they should make the playoffs, assuming this defense holds up. That should keep fans excited and the team competitive in the Western Conference.
