- J.D. Power has adjusted its EV sales outlook 2025. It now anticipates only 9% of new car sales will be electric, compared to its initial predcition of 12%.
- Concerns about charging infrastructure and other (non-EV) alternatives are tugging at EV growth.
- PHEV growth is up, but likely not to stay long-term because of low PHEV satisfaction scores compared to BEV models.
It's hard to know who or what to believe when it comes to the auto industry eventually going all-electric.
Lots of other media outlets, political pundits and EV detractors alike will say that EV sales have completely nose-dives, and the whole attempt at a zero-emission transition was a waste of time. Others say that EV sales are better than ever; a fact backed up with data. A recent study from J.D Power affirms the latter rather than the former—EV sales are definitely up. But interest in, and adoption of, the technology are both slower than expected.
In short, J.D. Power insists that there are a number of factors at play here that have caused EV adoption growth to slow. However, because growth has slowed so much, the firm has adjusted its EV adoption forecast downward. Initially, it predicted that 12% of the U.S. new car market would be made up of EVs by 2025. Now, it says that EV sales will only make up 9% instead. Still, 2030 EV sales are predicted to make up 36% of all sales and reach 58% by 2035.
So why the adjustment? J.D. Power says there are a multitude of reasons, but one of the biggest is the growth of gasoline-alternative models—specifically, the growth in PHEV models.
“While HEVs and BEVs currently account for the lion’s share of sales in this category at 8.6% and 8.4%, respectively, PHEVs have recently gained more widespread attention and now account for 1.8% of retail sales,” the study showed. The PHEV number is up from 0.6% in 2020.
But J.D. Power also insists that the surge in PHEV interest is merely temporary since they tend to score lower in user satisfaction and running costs compared to completely electric vehicles. It remains an open question whether buyers will even plug them in if a wider array of models are coming out.
The other reason, not surprisingly, is charging infrastructure. People love home charging, but public charging for both Level 2 and DC fast charging still isn’t great. We’ve learned that public charging scores have improved this year, but it’s more like going from “terrible” to “bad.”
But things aren’t all bad news here. The firm says that about 66% of all drivers could purchase a viable EV alternative to their gas-powered car because affordability has gotten even better. J.D. Power also said that estimates that 72% of all mass-market EVs are leased because of manufacturer incentives and the Inflation Reduction Act’s $7,500 cash.
These two things have helped make a new EV purchase so affordable for many drivers. It said that 94% of people it surveyed with a BEV will likely buy another, so when those leases end these EV drivers will stay EV owners. That’s good news.
In all, despite things being a little rocky right now, J.D Power still sees EV growth continuing upward, so long as we keep improving our charging infrastructure and improving affordability for EV hopefuls.
That’s easier said than done, though. Automakers of all sorts are pulling back from their initial full EV plans. Many are open about how they’re unable to make any money on their not-so-cheap EV shapes, causing other analysts to insist that a cheap EV won’t ever really happen in volume from established brands. The one place that has figured out how to make low-cost EVs, China, remains a huge point of contention. If Chinese EVs come here in some form or fashion, it’s not clear if the U.S. government or automakers will be all peachy keen on Americans buying BYD Seagulls or Xpeng Mona M03’s en masse.
Still, EV sales are still steadily increasing. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Contact the author: kevin.williams@insideevs.com
