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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Eurozone on brink of recession as economy shrinks by 0.1%; Odey Asset Management winding down – as it happened

European Union eurozone GDP Economy United States Inflation
The centre of Paris, France, where growth has slowed from 0.6% to just 0.1%
The centre of Paris, France, where growth has slowed from 0.6% to just 0.1% Photograph: Sergey Borisov/Alamy

Closing post

Time to wrap up….

Here’s our news story on today’s eurozone GDP growth report….

…and the latest on the situation at Odey Asset Management:

And here’s the other major news of the day:

Russia "tightens capital controls on western companies"

Russia has reportedly imposed additional currency controls in an attempt to prop up the falling rouble, restricting western companies that sell their Russian assets from taking the proceeds in dollars and euros.

International companies that want to exit Russia after its invasion of Ukraine have to sell their assets in roubles under new government restrictions, according to the Financial Times, which cited people familiar with the matter.

If they insist on receiving foreign currency for their assets, they face delays or even losses on the sums that can be transferred abroad, the FT reported.

In the City, Hotter Shoes owner Unbound Group has warned shareholders it will not be able to release its interim results by the end of today, the deadline under stock market rules.

Unbound’s shares have been suspended since 17 July 2023 pending clarification of the Company’s financial position.

It has previously missed the deadline of 5th August to publish its latest Annual Report.

Unbound admits:

It remains unlikely that the Company will be in a position to publish its Annual Report and its Interim Results in the near future.

It also says it continues to explore opportunities for “a Transaction”, but these talks remain at an early stage so there is no certainty that it will be completed.

Back in July, Drapers reported that industry insiders believe the company has struggled to maintain Hotter Shoes’ proposition after it moved to a marketplace model.

Back in the eurozone, disinflation is “well on its way”, declares analysts at ABN Amro.

They say this morning’s rapid fall in eurozone inflation, and the drop in GDP in Q3, show price pressures easing.

ABN Amro say:

To begin with, HICP inflation fell to 2.9% in October, down from 4.3% in September, which was below the consensus and our own forecast. The bulk of the drop was thanks to energy price inflation, which fell to -11.1% from -4.6% on the back of a sharp negative base effect (in October 2022, energy inflation peaked at 41.5%), but the inflation rates of all other main components also declined in October.

The inflation rate of food, alcohol and tobacco fell to 7.5%, down from 8.8% in September, services price inflation declined to 4.6% from 4.7% and non-energy industrial goods price inflation fell to 3.5% from 4.1%.

Energy price inflation is still influenced by the implementation and unwinding of government support measures after the start of the war in Ukraine. This will continue to impact household energy inflation for the rest of this year and in the first half of 2024.

Still, based on recent trends in energy commodity prices, we think that the trough in energy inflation has been reached now, and we expect a rise in the coming months, which could also result in overall inflation temporarily rebounding somewhat in the short term.

UK stock market in a ‘doom loop' after rough month for stocks

October has been a painful month for shares in UK companies, and there could be worse times ahead for the market.

The domestically-focused FTSE 250 index has fallen by over 6% this month, its worst performance since September 2022 (when stocks were hit by the mini-budget chaos).

The wider picture for the market is concerning too, with UK investment bank Peel Hunt warning today that Britain’s market for small and medium sized stocks is shrinking rapidly

Bloomberg has the details:

A lack of initial public offerings, along with a flurry of takeovers by overseas and private equity firms, mean there are more companies leaving the UK market than joining it.

The trend is particularly pronounced for the FTSE Small Cap Index, which Peel Hunt says has lost 10% of its members and 20% of its market capitalization this year.

“We are currently in a doom loop, where valuations are low, liquidity is reducing, investors are seeing withdrawals and there is little desire to IPO,” Charles Hall, Peel Hunt’s head of research, wrote in a report. “If this continues, the UK could lose a crucial part of its financial ecosystem.”

Updated

US consumer confidence dips amid recession worries

Just in: US consumer confidence has dipped this month, but was higher than expected, as people fret about inflation and conflict in the Middle East.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to 102.6 in October, down from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September, and the third monthly decline in a row.

Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions declined this month, as did their short-term outlook for income, business, and the jobs market.

The report says:

Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024.

Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board says consumers are preoccupied with rising prices, particularly grocery and gasoline prices.

Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.

Worries around war/conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.”

Updated

Odey Asset Management to close down

Newsflash: Odey Asset Management (OAM) is in the process of winding down, months after its founder was accused of sexual misconduct by junior female members of staff.

In a statement on its website, the group says:

Odey Asset Management, including Brook Asset Management and Odey Wealth, will be closing. Fund Managers and Funds have moved to new Asset Managers.

Some Odey funds, and their managers, have been transferred to other City firms, while others have closed.

OAM was thrown into turmoil in June after the Financial Times revealed that 13 women had accused Odey of abuse or harassment over decades. Odey denies the allegations.

Earlier this month, it emerged that the group’s wealth management arm was being wound up.

Back in the eurozone, the head of France’s central bank has declared that inflation has clearly passed its peak, after falling to 4% this month (see earlier post).

Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who is also a policymaker at the European Central Bank, said:

“This state of the economy fully justifies the halt to the rate hike sequence decided by the [ECB] Governing Council last Thursday.

“Our monetary policy must now be guided by confidence and patience: confidence that we are making firm progress towards bringing inflation down to 2% by 2025; patience in stabilising interest rates at their current level for as long as is still necessary.

Asda has completed its buyout of sister business EG Group’s UK petrol forecourts business for £2.07bn, our retail correspondent Sarah Butler writes.

The sharp-eyed may notice a £200m drop in the valuation from the deal which involves 356 sites and was first announced this spring between the companies, both owned by the billionaire Issa brothers and UK private equity group TDR Capital.

That’s because EG will now be retaining several foodservice brands including Cooplands, its bakery business, and its franchises with Starbucks, KFC, Sbarro, Chaiiwala and Cinnabon.

Asda will still be acquiring the Leon fast food business, however, under the deal so expect loaded Mexican fries and vegan sausage muffins to appear in a supermarket near you before long.

Asda is also taking on 462 Greggs, Burger King and Subway outlets as franchise agreements from EG.

Over in the US, house prices in the 20 largest cities have risen for the sixth month in a row, helped by a shortage of properties on the market.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rose 1% month-on-month in August, as compared with the previous month.

On a year-over-year basis, home prices in the 20 major metro markets in the U.S. have risen by 2.2%, despite the impact of higher US interest rates on borrowing costs.

S&P Dow Jones Indices, who produce the report, say:

Chicago led the way for the fourth consecutive month, reporting the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities in August. For this month, seven of 20 cities reported lower prices.

Rwelve of the 20 cities reported higher prices in the year ending August 2023 versus the year ending July 2023. Nineteen of the 20 cities show a positive trend in year-over-year price acceleration compared to the prior month.

Back in the energy sector, BP’s interim chief executive has dismissed speculation the British energy major could become a takeover target.

Murray Auchincloss told the Financial Times he wasn’t concerned that BP could be caught up in the wave of consolidation in the oil and gas sector, saying:

“I don’t feel vulnerable, in fact I feel quite confident.”

Recent multibillion-dollar acquisitions by ExxonMobil and Chevron have sparked predictions there could be further M&A activity in the energy sector.

And writing in the Telegraph today, Ben Marlow argues that oil’s next mega-merger should be Shell and BP.

Ben writes that BP suddenly looks extremely vulnerable, having lost chief executive Bernard Looney in September over personal relationships with colleagues, adding:

There are unmistakable echoes of the Deepwater Horizon crisis when Shell briefly weighed an opportunistic rescue of a company that looked to have been plunged into a death spiral by the exorbitant clean up and legal costs associated with the catastrophic Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

In the end, Shell chickened out, concerned that BP’s mounting legal liabilities could prove too big a handicap.

It is the deal that keeps getting away. In his memoirs Lord Browne, the former BP chief executive, revealed how management had wanted to merge with Shell in 2004.

BP’s shares are down 4% today, after it posted lower-than-expected profits this morning.

In the transport sector, the UK government has pulled a screeching u-turn over the controversial, unpopular plans for the mass closure of England’s railway ticket offices

The transport secretary, Mark Harper, has announced the “government had asked train operators to withdraw their proposals”.

Our transport correspondent Gwyn Topham explains:

The move came after a huge public backlash to the cost-cutting proposals, which attracted 750,000 responses in a public consultation, 99% of which were objections, according to the passenger watchdogs managing the survey.

Harper announced the decision minutes after the watchdogs, Transport Focus and London TravelWatch, announced that they would formally object to all of the closure proposals.

Back in the UK, the number of home sales has dropped by 17% year-on-year.

New figures from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) show that an estimated 85,610 home sales took place in September 2023.

That was also a 1% drop compared with August, as high UK interest rates continue to hit demand.

High interest rates, low consumer demand and negative global sentiment are all weighing on the eurozone economy, says Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm.

Following this morning’s GDP and inflation reports, Flax says:

“Today’s slew of data releases provides a broad overview of the underlying health of the European economy (or the lack thereof). The preliminary reading of the Eurozone CPI has shown headline inflation falling to its lowest levels in over two years, as price pressures continue to ease, primarily with lower energy prices. Headline inflation dropped to 2.9% YoY, well below the 3.1% expected, while core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, eased to 4.2% (within expectations) from 4.5% previously.

“While inflation has eased thanks to the ECB’s aggressive hikes, the central bank’s tightening has also had an impact on the wider economy, with GDP falling by -0.1% in Q3 2023 – worse than the stagnation predicted by economists. In YoY terms, Eurozone GDP is currently growing at +0.1%, but another decline in Q4 would place the region in a technical recession. The high interest rates, low consumer demand and negative global sentiment are certainly weighing on the economy. Germany shrank by 0.1% in Q3, while Ireland, Austria and Czechia clocked bigger declines at -1.8%, -0.6% and -0.3% respectively.”

Deutsche Bank’s chief European economist, Mark Wall, points out that underlying inflation in the eurozone is running at twice the ECB’s target, saying:

“Euro area inflation dropped more than expected again in October, falling below 3% for the first time since mid-2021. The ECB will hold this news at arm’s length.

Core inflation remains above 4%, twice the target level of inflation. The ECB needs to see wage inflation slowing and this could take a further six months.”

Pushpin Singh, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, warns that growth in the eurozone will be sluggish this year and in 2024.

Singh explains:

“Today’s Eurostat figures reveal a quarterly contraction in the Eurozone economy for Q3 2023. The currency bloc continues to be affected by elevated inflation and the ECB’s response to higher interest rates, the impacts of which continue to feed through to the economy.

The ECB, trying to balance the need to fight inflation with the desire to avoid unnecessary economic harm, opted to pause its monetary tightening campaign at its latest Governing Council meeting last week.

Nonetheless, key interest rates in the currency bloc are expected to remain elevated as the ECB looks to stamp out lingering price pressure, and this will likely act as a drag on growth. As such, Cebr forecasts that the Eurozone economy will face sluggish growth over this year and next.”

A chart of eurozone GDP
A chart of eurozone GDP Photograph: CEBR/Eurostat

Updated

ING: Eurozone recession this year is certainly possible

There is a “realistic” prospect that the eurozone falls into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, says ING analyst Bert Colijn.

Colijn argues that the 0.1% drop in eurozone GDP in the last quarter is not a meaningful decline, but that there is a broad stagnation in the region.

He explains:

The drop of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in eurozone GDP is not very dramatic. It was led by Irish GDP falling by 1.8% – a figure which is often subject to dramatic revisions. Germany experienced a small decline of 0.1%, while Italy stagnated over the quarter. Growth in France and Spain remained positive but still lower than last quarter. All in all, growth continued to trend around zero in the third quarter.

While a technical recession is certainly possible in the second half of this year on the back of the third-quarter GDP reading and a weak start to the quarter according to first business surveys, we don’t see too much reason for real alarm so far. It does look like the economic environment is weakening at the moment, but no sharp recession is in sight either. Still, continued economic and geopolitical uncertainty alongside the impact of higher rates on the economy will weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters.

Here’s a handy chart showing how European countries fared in the third quarter of the year:

The 0.1% drop in eurozone GD in the last quarter was partly caused by a sharp decline in Ireland.

Irish GDP shrank by 1.8% in July-September, Eurostat reports, a notable decline, following 0.5% growth in Q2.

However, Irish GDP is volatile, and heavily influenced by the activity of multinational companies based in the republic.

Over the last year, both the eurozone and the European Union have only grown by just 0.1%.

Moody’s Analytics economist Kamil Kovar says the eurozone is undergoing “what can be best described as stagnation”.

Growth is far from healthy, but neither it is an outright recession, he adds.

The fall in eurozone GDP and the inflation rate suggests the interest rate increases across the region since summer 2022 are having an impact.

It takes the pressure off the European Central Bank to lift rates any higher, argues Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

Mahony says:

Yesterday’s lower than expected inflation data out of Spain and Germany shaped expectations for today’s wider eurozone figure, with the latest CPI figure of 2.9% (from 4.3%) further easing any pressure on the ECB to tighten further.

With eurozone growth coming in at an uninspiring -0.1% for the quarter, there is a feeling that tightening undertaken over the course of the past year has brought to the kind of soft landing and disinflationary environment the ECB has been aiming for. Their hope is that we do not see economy weaken to the point that they come under pressure before inflation has been brought under control.

Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist at BCA Research, says:

“European inflation fell below expectations.

The deceleration is strong and supported by various factors such as advantageous base effects, slowing wages, muted inflationary pressures and tame inflation expectations for next year.

While it will make the ECB comfortable, it is still too early to bet on an imminent rate cut.”

Eurozone inflation falls to 2.9%

Inflation across the eurozone has fallen by more than expected, to the lowest in over two years.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.9% in October, down from 4.3% in September, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat.

That’s the lowest eurozone inflation reading since July 2021, and takes it closer to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

Food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in October (fallinng to 7.5%, compared with 8.8% in September), followed by services (4.6%, compared with 4.7% in September).

Non-energy industrial goods inflation slowed to 3.5%, compared with 4.1% in September,

And energy prices fell by 11.1% year-on-year, a sharper fall than the 4.6% drop in September.

Updated

Eurozone shrank in last quarter

Newsflash: The eurozone economy shrank in the last quarter, a worse result than expected.

Eurozone GDP fell by 0.1% in July-September, data just released by Eurostat shows, worse than the stagnation which economists expected.

This highlights how Europe’s economy is being held back by high interest rates, the cost of living crisis, and weaker demand from the global economy.

The wider European Union grew by 0.1%.

Latvia (+0.6%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Belgium (+0.5%) and Spain (+0.3%).

The highest declines were recorded in Ireland (-1.8%), Austria (-0.6%) and Czechia (-0.3%).

Germany, the eurozone’s largest member, shrank by 0.1% during the quarter.

And as we’ve covered this morning, France only grew by 0.1% while Italy’s GDP stagnated.

Updated

UK company insolvencies have soared this year

Back in the UK, company insolvencies have been running at the highest level since 2009 over the last six months.

There were 6,208 company insolvencies registered in July-September, the Insolvency Service reports, a 2% drop compared with the 14-year high set in April-June.

Last quarter there were 4,965 creditors’ voluntary liquidations (CVLs), where a company’s directors choose to wind up their firm.

The last two quarters have both seen the highest quarterly insolvency numbers since the second quarter of 2009, and “the highest numbers of CVLs since the start of the series in 1960”, the Insolvency Service says, adding:

The numbers of compulsory liquidations and administrations increased to levels last seen before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

A chart showing UK insolvencies
A chart showing UK insolvencies Photograph: The Insolvency Service

Mark Ford, partner in restructuring and recovery services at professional services firm Evelyn Partners, says:

“Despite a slight tick down in the third quarter from the second, company insolvencies have soared this year to levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2007/08 against a grim backdrop of continuing cost increases, a harsh and uncertain macroeconomic environment and continuing friction in supply chains and trading conditions.

While insolvencies fell on the quarter they are significantly up on the year, and the first three quarters’ insolvency data does not paint a pretty picture of the challenges facing UK businesses as we head towards the end of 2023.

Updated

Portugal's GDP shrinks by 0.2%

Newsflash: Portugal’s economy shrank in the last quarter.

Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Portugal’s statistics body, reports that the Portuguese GDP fell by 0.2% in July-September, following a 0.1% rise in April-June.

Weaker external demand weighed on GDP, due to a drop in exports of both goods and services, including tourism.

INE adds:

The contribution of domestic demand moved from negative to positive in the third quarter, with increases in private consumption and investment.

A chart of Portuguese GDP

On an annual basis, Portugal registered year-on-year growth of 1.9% in the third quarter of 2023, after increasing 2.6% in the previous quarter.

Italy's economy stagnates in Q3 but dodges recession

Breaking: Italy’s economy stagnated in the last quarter, as it narrowly avoided a recession.

Italian GDP was flat in July-September compared with April-June, statistics body Istat reports, slightly weaker than expected.

That follows a 0.4% contraction in April-June, and means Italy has avoided shrinking for two quarters in a row (a technical recession).

The economy was also unchanged on a year-on-year basis.

A chart showing Italian GDP

Istat reports that agriculture, forestry and fishing shrank, while industry grew.

Domestic demand had a negative impact on GDP, while net exports had a positive one.

Updated

Beyond the eurozone, we also have weak GDP figures from Hong Kong and the Czech Republic this morning.

Growth in Hong Kong was just 0.1% in July-September, missing forecasts of 1.4% growth.

While Czech GDP fell by 0.3% in the last quarter, with growth “negatively affected” by foreign demand while domestic demand stagnated.

Updated

French inflation slows

Back in France, inflation has slowed to its lowest level since last year’s invasion of Ukraine.

The French consumer prices index rose by 4.0% in the year to October, down from 4.9% in September, estimates just released shows.

That’s the lowest inflation rate since February 2022.

A chart showing French inflation

Stats body INSEE says the fall in inflation is due to a slowdown in price rises of energy, food and manufactured products, while service prices rose at a faster pace.

On an EU-harmonised basis, French inflation fell to 4.5% in October, down from 5.7% in September.

For comparison, UK inflation was 6.7% in September, but is also expected to fall in October due to the drop in energy bills this month.

Updated

UK shop price inflation at lowest since August 2022

There’s good news for UK consumers this morning – shop price inflation has hit its lowest level in over a year.

Prices at British store chains rose by 5.2% per year in October, new data from the British Retail Consortium show. That’s the slowest pace since last August.

Food inflation decelerated to 8.8% in October, down from 9.9% in September, and the lowest since July 2022.

Helen Dickinson, OBE, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, explains:

Imported goods saw higher levels of inflation due to a weaker pound, still-high producer costs and emerging trade frictions, while prices for some domestically produced foods, such as fruit, were lower compared to last month. Prices of children’s and baby clothing also fell as retailers continued to support families as the colder weather descended.

This is the fifth straight month that shop price inflation eased, points out Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, adding:

Shop price inflation continues to travel in the right direction, although food price inflation is still stuck more than four times higher than the Bank of England’s 2% target, highlighting that there is still a long way to get back to more sustainable, lower levels for price increases.

Retailers have been trying to keep a lid on their price rises in an attempt to uphold demand amid the sluggish consumer backdrop as rising interest rates and the broader macro pressures take their toll. However they are trying to balance this against preserving margins during a period of elevated cost pressures.”

The French economy is facing a significant economic slowdown that is likely to persist over the coming quarters, warns ING.

They say the details of this morning’s GDP report are “solid”, with domestic demand rebounding strongly.

But ING analyst Charlotte de Montpellier predicts that average growth in 2024 is likely to be weak, and well below the government’s forecast of 1.4%. ING estimates it will be just 0.6%.

De Montpellier says:

In line with expectations, French GDP growth slowed sharply in the third quarter to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, following an upwardly revised 0.6% rise in the second quarter.

Despite the sharp deceleration in growth, the details of the figures are fairly solid, with domestic demand accelerating and making a very positive contribution to GDP growth (+0.7 points compared with +0.2 points in the second quarter).

Household consumption grew by 0.7% over the quarter, after stagnating in the previous quarter, thanks to a rebound in the consumption of capital goods, transport equipment and food.

Consumption of services slowed. Investment also accelerated sharply in the third quarter (+1.0% compared with +0.5% in the second quarter), particularly in manufactured goods and information and communication services. However, construction investment stagnated over the quarter.

Updated

Danish brewer Carlsberg has warned that the trading environment in Europe remains uncertain because of weak consumer sentiment.

Carlsberg reported a 3% drop in sales volumes last quarter, in its latest financial results this morning, although price rises meant revenues rose by 5.8%.

But volumes fell faster in Western Europe, by 5.2%, while in Central & Eastern Europe they dropped -6.3%.

Carlsberg says volumes in Western Euroe were hit by “the cold and wet weather, especially in July and August, and weak consumer sentiment”.

BP profits lower than expected amid gas trading slump

In the energy sector, BP has reported weaker than expected profits of $3.3bn (£2.7bn) for the third quarter of this year after a slump in its gas trading business.

The company said its profits halved in the three months to September compared with bumper profits of $8.2bn in the equivalent months last year when oil and gas prices soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The result was also well below analysts’ expectations of $4.01bn for the quarter.

Over in Germany, retail sales have dropped unexpectedly in another sign of weakness in Europe’s largest economy.

German retail sales fell by 0.8% month-on-month in September, dashing expectations of a 0.5% increase.

On an annual basis, retail sales were 4.3% lower than a year ago, suggesting that weak household consumption is dragging on the economy.

French finance minister Bruno Le Maire has welcomed the rise in household spending in the last quarter.

He told reporters this morning:

“The upturn in household growth is good news. It drove growth in the third quarter, proving that for the first time in many months household income is rising faster than inflation.”

Le Maire added that recent trends of easing inflation will allow France to meet its 2024 economic growth target of 1.4%, Reuters adds.

Here’s Claus Vistesen, macroeconomist for Pantheon Macro, on this morning’s French GDP report:

Updated

Introduction: French economy grows 0.1% in Q3

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Today we get a detailed healthcheck on the eurozone economy, with the latest GDP and inflation data from across the single currency bloc.

And the first word comes from France, where growth has slowed sharply in the last quarter in the face of high interest rates, cost of living pressures and a weak global economy.

French GDP expanded by just 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023, a slowdown on the upwardly revised 0.6% growth recorded in April-June.

Statistics body INSEE reports that foreign trade shrank in July-September, with exports shrinking faster than imports.

It says:

Against this backdrop, foreign trade contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (‑0.3 points after ‑0.1 points).

Companies also ran down their inventories of stocks, which had a negative impact on growth.

But on the upside, domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth, driven by household spending and company investment.

That’s a better performance than Germany, which we learned yesterday shrank by 0.1% in July-September.

We’ll get GDP data from Italy and Portugal later this morning, ahead of the eurozone-wide report at 10am, plus new stats on the cost of living.

The eurozone is not expected to have grown in the last quarter, as Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, explains:

On the wider EU measure the economy is expected to have slowed to 0% in Q3 from 0.1%, meaning that over the last 4 quarters we’ve seen little to no growth at all.

Inflation is also expected to have slowed sharply with French CPI for October expected to have slowed to 4.5% from 5.7% on an annualised basis. EU flash CPI is expected to have similarly slowed from 4.3% to 3.1%, with core prices forecast to remain a little stickier at 4.2%, down from 4.5%.

The agenda

  • 7.45am BST: French inflation report for October

  • 8am BST: Czech Republic Q3 GDP report

  • 9am BST: Italian Q3 GDP report

  • 9.30am BST: Portuguese Q3 GDP report

  • 10am BST: Eurozone flash Q3 GDP report

  • 10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for October

  • 12.30pm BST: Canadian August GDP report

  • 1pm BST: US house price index for August

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