European Commodity Winners Last Week
White Sugar #5 (SWK25), +5.76%
This contract has experienced an incredible rally since Jan. 22, however, the forward curve is pointing sharply downwards throughout 2025 and 2026. Reduced output from India (the second largest producer) from 32 million tons last year to 27 million tons this year is fueling the current price increase.
President Trump's tariffs are contributing to increased sugar prices in the U.S., challenging North American sugar industries, and introducing uncertainties in the global sugar market. The global sugar market is expected to produce 186.6 million tons in 2025, an increase of 2.8 million tons from the previous year, but the USDA forecasts a 4.7% year-over-year decline in global sugar ending stocks for the 2024/25 season, reaching a 13-year low.
Among the bullish factors, India is facing difficulties in meeting its sugar export quota of 1 million metric tons this season, per Reuters. Brazil, as a major sugar producer, is currently having a dispute with the U.S. over tariffs. Expect increased volatility in the coming weeks given this scenario.
Sugar prices are trading well above their 10-, 20-, and 50-unit exponential moving averages (EMAs), marking a clear uptrend. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fast approaching the 70 level, which has served as a reliable resistance level in the past.
Tin Refined 3M (Cash) (Q2Y00), +4.93%
The recent surge is attributed to low ore supply and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for demand. Indonesia exports are having breaks in the Lunar New Year following a seasonal bullish pattern from previous year. In 2024, Indonesia exports declined by 33% and Myanmar production declined by 40%.
Political conflicts remain in Myanmar Man Maw mine, which continue to limit supply. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin stocks as of Feb. 19 at 3,965 tn are at an average level and Futures and Options Fund net positions are at 1,141 contracts which is supporting of the current trend.
Prices are trading well above the 10, 20, and 50 EMAs, confirming the current uptrend.
Key levels to watch include 33,000-33,200, which has presented strong resistance since April 2024, and 28,500, which has been an outstanding long entry point since 2024.
European Commodity Losers Last Week
UK Natural Gas (NFH25), -16%
In February, UK natural gas futures were trading at a 24-month peak slightly above 140, with high volatility. These levels were last seen in October 2023.
Norway (which is the largest Europe supplier) is estimated to keep high delivery levels in 2025, according to Reuters. This is already restricting rallies in the UK gas market, despite the current low UK storage levels.
However, in the EU market supply remains tight, as Europe is still working on building its LNG infrastructure (scheduled for 2026).
Prices are now below the 10, 20, and 50 EMAs, marking a sharp reversal from the peak.
The 14-day RSI at 42.71 is in the area of “oversold.” Watch out for price levels close to 100, as these have proven to be excellent entry areas for long positions in the past. Also, the 14-day RSI approaching 30 has been very profitable for technical traders.
Crude Oil Brent (CBK25), -1.71%
The Brent contract remained last week below the 50-day EMA, and it looks set to break it upwards. The forward curve points downward well into 2026, but there are short-term supply risks, mainly from Russian supply.
The market is closely following peace negotiations between the U.S. and Russia. A favorable outcome would put a limit to any current rally. In the short term, disruptions in the Russian supply given the Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced exports from Kazakhstan by 35%.
Brent has a solid support at 69.5-70, tested 4 times since September 2024 with a reliable technical precision. This would offer a good entry point to long positions.
The highs around 80, last reached on Jan. 15, remains a technical top that can be used for profit taking.
