Closing summary
… and on that note, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa.
Here are the three things to take away from today’s blog:
After a tumultous sitting, the German parliament has rejected a draft bill to tighten immigration controls in response to recent knife attacks in the country (17:14, 17:15, 17:25). The highly-controversial proposal, put forward by the CDU/CSU opposition party which leads in the polls, failed to secure a majority in the Bundestag, despite the backing of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland.
A group of French lawmakers reached a provisional agreement on an amended text of the budget, which is expected to be put to vote in the parliament on Monday. Embattled prime minister François Bayrou is likely to have a busy weekend as he needs to secure as much support as he can to avoid having to trigger the controversial article 49.3, which could prompt opposition parties to call for another vote of no confidence (17:00).
Hundreds of striking Serbian students are continuing their arduous march from Belgrade to the northern city of Novi Sad, as they plan to block three bridges over the Danube this weekend in their continuing protest against the alleged corruption of state institutions. Saturday will mark three months since a huge concrete construction at the railway station in Novi Sad collapsed on Nov. 1, leaving 15 people dead and prompting the wide-spread protests (13:36).
And I leave you with the news about growing anger in Romania after a daring heist from the Drents Museum in the Netherlands, with the near-2,500-year-old gold Helmet of Coțofenești – one of Romania’s most revered national treasures – among the stolen items.
And so, that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
Have a great weekend and see you again on Monday.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Updated
Lack of party discipline undermines Merz as a potential chancellor, AfD’s Weidel says
In a blistering statement after the vote, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel directly attacks Merz for failing to get his lawmakers to back the proposal, saying it undermines his credentials to be the next chancellor of Germany.
She stressed that no AfD lawmakers voted against the proposal.
She uses the results to repeat her claim that only the AfD is capable of delivering a radical change in migration policy.
'It's up to next Bundestag now,' Merz turns to voters
Speaking at a press conference after the vote, Merz says he respects the will of some of his lawmakers who did not support the proposal, even if it directly contributed to the defeat.
He turns to the future, and says that the issue of how to respond to irregular migration will now fall to the next Bundestag as he repeats he will campaign on the proposals in both the motion adopted on Wednesday and the bill that failed today.
In a direct call to the electorate, he says that while he would have wanted a different result today, this outcome also offers clarity on where his party stands opposed to Olaf Scholz’s SPD and the Greens and he intends to make that point on the campaign trail.
Updated
Greece following the German vote closely
in Athens
The Bundestag debate was being followed closely in Greece, an EU frontier country that has seen migration flows jump considerably with refugee arrivals on Crete and the adjacent isle of Gavdos increasing six-fold last year to the astonishment of locals.
As Europe’s southernmost point, Gavdos in particular has become the focal destination for would-be asylum seekers setting off from the port city of Tobruk in Libya. Boats are frequently crammed with unaccompanied minors.
Greece’s centre-right government has applied what it has called a “tough but fair” migration management policy. But for migrant solidarity workers, the measures, including containing refugees in closed controlled access centres (CCAC) on Aegean isles, have been unduly harsh - a reflection, say NGOs, not only of political sentiment across the continent but of the unspoken desire to deter would-be asylum seekers from making similar journeys.
This week, the Human Rights Legal Project (HRLP), described conditions in the safe zone area of Samos island’s CCAC’s – the zone where unaccompanied minors reside – as “horrific.”
“The area, which was originally designed to accommodate 200 children, is now hosting 485 unaccompanied minors, many of whom lack shoes and adequate clothing,” it said.
Shortages not only included beds and lack of access to education and health services but basic products such as soap and toothpaste.
Refugee Support Aegean, another NGO, also deplored the “inadequate presence of organisations and authorities” to deal with the upsurge in flows to the country. The lack of preparedness, had it said, resulted in ever growing numbers of newly arrived refugees being compelled to stay in “unsuitable facilities without basic necessities” in Gavdos and Crete.
Updated
Ooh, this is an interesting one.
As Der Spiegel notes, the parties that technically declared their support for the bill would have the majority if all their members voted for it. But clearly, some did not (or didn’t turn up to vote.)
There will also be some questions about Friedrich Merz’s insistence to force this proposal to a vote.
Given his key argument hinged on the suggestion that this needs to be passed because that is what the electorate wants, there will surely be questions about how it ended up in failure – despite the AfD’s backing!
Proposed draft law rejected by the Bundestag
338 in favour
350 against
5 abstentions
What is going on? - recap
Just a reminder on what is going on if you’ve only just joined us on Europe Live:
The German parliament has just closed the vote on a draft law suggesting tightening of the country’s immigration rules, with changes to family reunification rules and stronger powers to the federal police.
The motion, put forward by the main opposition party CDU/CSU, is highly controversial as it could be passed with the votes of the Alternative für Deutschland, breaking the historical firewall against any sort of political cooperation with far-right parties.
The sitting broke for a few hours earlier today as the main parties sought to strike a last-minute agreement that would allow them to avoid the vote, but the crisis talks ultimately failed – and this is why we are here.
We are now waiting for the results and they should come very soon.
Back to Germany, the deputy speaker confirms that the vote has now closed; we’re waiting for the results as they count the votes.
(In the meantime, the session continues with a debate on Afghanistan.)
French budgetary breakthrough - analysis
in Paris
Monday could be an interesting day in the Assemblée nationale in Paris with the French parliament set to vote on the 2025 budget after a commission of seven deputies and seven senators reached agreement on an amended text earlier this afternoon (see 13.14 CET).
The opposition Socialist party (PS) - whose support prime minister François Bayrou has been courting and which his minority government aims to peel away from the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, dominated by the radical left Unbowed France (LFI) - claimed a number of minor victories.
But it did not by any means get all it wanted and the text of the belt-tightening budget remains similar in essence to the one proposed by the former prime minister Michel Barnier, whose government fell in December after the far right National Rally (RN) joined forces with the NFP in a vote of no confidence.
Analysts therefore expect the PS to vote against the budget on Monday, along with the other opposition parties: the RN, LFI, the Communists and the Greens. If the 66 Socialist deputies do vote against it, the bill will not pass.
Bayrou will spend the weekend trying to win over as much support as he can, but if he considers the risk of the budget being voted down is too great he may be tempted to make use of the controversial constitutional tool known as article 49.3.
This allows a government to push certain kind of legislation through parliament without a vote - but also allows MPs the chance to challenge that decision by submitting a no-confidence motion that is generally voted on 48 hours later.
It was just such a motion that saw off Barnier’s government at the end of last year, and France’s parliamentary arithmetic has not changed: the pro-Macron, centrist alliance plus the centre-right bloc can muster only 211 votes in the 577-seat house.
The Socialists have not said how they would vote on a no-confidence motion, which would almost certainly be submitted by LFI, and they – and, perhaps, the RN – may decide the stakes are now too high to bring down another government so early.
But it would take fewer than half of PS deputies to join LFI, the RN and the rest of the opposition in voting in favour of a censure motion for Bayrou’s government to suffer the same fate as his predecessor’s – as early as next Wednesday.
Watch this space.
Updated
As we await the result of the vote in Germany, let’s take a super quick look at the situation in France again…
Vote on the draft law under way in the Bundestag
Back to the Bundestag where a late attempt to refer the draft law back to the committee was rejected.
The parliament is now voting on the second reading of the draft law, with results expected by 16:50 CET.
Who will vote in favour? Will anyone abstain? Remember, the Wednesday vote was passed by just three votes.
Updated
'Some judges ... want to govern,' Meloni says in protest against her probe
And a quick update on Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, who caused quite an uproar with her comments last night, insisting that a probe into her role in the release of a Libyan war crime suspect was politically motivated.
We covered the context yesterday (here).
But Meloni insisted last night that passing the probe by a Rome prosecutor to a special court that considers cases against ministers was “clearly a deliberate act. Everyone knows that the prosecutors of these things have their discretion,” AFP says.
More broadly, she said the actions of “politicised magistrates” were “not normal”, adding: “Some judges, fortunately few... want to govern.”
She said the prosecutor involved had previously brought a case against her deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, and added: “I cannot be blackmailed, I will not be intimidated.”
Italy’s National Association of Magistrates (ANM) said there had been a “total misunderstanding” of the role of the prosecutor, who it said was obliged by law to pass complaints against ministers to the court, without investigating them.
The special court of ministers will now assess the complaint against Meloni and the others, but would need parliament’s approval to proceed.
But, but, but … if you’re already looking up flights and planning your trip to Paris to see the balloon, let me suggest an alternative place to consider: the Polish capital, Warsaw.
(I admit, I may be slightly partisan here – sorry, not sorry!)
Chef Karol Adamiak writes for Guardian Europe today on how the city has changed over the last two decades.
Warsaw has been ranked among the top vegan cities in the world by HappyCow (a vegan ranking website) for the past six years. In 2022, it was National Geographic’s number one vegan city in the world. Maybe your perception of Poland is all kielbasa (sausage) and conservative politics. Herring and hate. It’s more complicated than that. In the past two decades there has been a quiet vegan revolution in the country.
In February, we’re taking over Lotos, a traditional restaurant open since 1958, famous for its nóżki w galarecie (legs in jelly – literally a chicken soup served cold so the collagen has become gelatinous, with veg and carrots suspended in it). The owner, Hanna Szymańska, told us she’s looking forward to putting out a vegan menu for the night: “You have to move with the times.”
Updated
As the German debate continues – we will return to it for the vote, unless something significant happens earlier – let’s take a look at news elsewhere, starting with Paris.
Remember the flame-free Olympic balloon, the symbol of last summer’s Olympic Games in Paris?
French president Emmanuel Macron has just announced it will return every summer up until the next edition of summer games in Los Angeles 2028.
Reminder: this draft law, if passed, would still have to go to the upper chamber, and wouldn’t get passed before the election on 23 February.
But emotions are flying high because of what’s at stake: both electorally, but also in terms of “the firewall” principle.
Merz explains that the measures proposed in this draft bill do not go beyond German and EU law, and urges lawmakers to vote for it to send a clear signal to voters that the parties of the centre are serious about the challenges the country faces.
He says his party also takes some blame for the rise of the AfD, and insists more needs to be done if they are to be stopped.
He also urges others to dial down their rhetoric, saying the parties will have to be able to talk to each other after the election next month.
He gets briefly annoyed when asked by Alliance 90/The Greens’s co-leader, Felix Banaszak, if he contemplates a scenario in which he gets elected chancellor with AfD votes.
In response, Merz asks Banaszak if he’s read any papers of the last few weeks and says that he has repeatedly ruled out such scenario.
Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, for the Alliance 90/The Greens group, speaking next.
We will get back to their debate when we get closer to the vote.
Merz seeks to distance himself from far right but refuses to apologise for migration motion
Merz starts distancing himself from the AfD, as he says they are largely “a radical-right extremist party” which seeks to undermine democracy.
But in response to demands from the SPD, he refuses to apologise for passing the first migration motion on Wednesday with the AfD’s votes, even as he directly warns against the risks the party poses.
He insists that it is necessary to act after the recent knife attacks, and refuses to back down.
He presents the draft law outlining its three key elements: reducing immigration, suspending family reunification rights for asylum seekers, and expanding powers of the country’s police.
Updated
We can 'close the gates of hell together,' SDP lawmaker says
Mützenich ends his speech with a passionate plea to “close the gates of hell together,” not give up the “firewall” against the far right, and not allow for the draft law to be carried by the votes of the Alternative für Deutschland.
CDU/CSU’s Merz, the frontrunner to win next month’s election, is speaking next.
Updated
SPD’s Rolf Mützenich accuses CDU/CSU of trying to force their proposal through.
He describes long negotiations, but says they ultimately failed.
“If you want to put [the draft law] to the vote today, that’s up to you,” he turns to Merz.
Updated
Bundestag back in sitting after hours of delay
The sitting is back under way.
Apparently it would take an average person up to 21 hours to read Merkel’s 736-page book.
(The English edition is marginally shorter at 720 pages.)
Also, it appears that the picture of the book on government benches was originally first taken by Der Spiegel deputy editor-in-chief, Melanie Amann.
And yes, we are still waiting.
Merkel's biography placed on government benches as a signal to CDU/CSU
The eagle-eyed Robin Alexander of Die Welt has spotted that Angela Merkel’s biography is now placed on the government’s benches, between the seats of chancellor Olaf Scholz and vice-chancellor Robert Habeck.
A clear signal to, or probably more accurately a warning for, the CDU/CSU to listen to their former boss.
Auf der Regierungsbank liegt die Biografie von Angela Merkel. Zwischen den Plätzen von Scholz und Habeck. (via @MelAmann) https://t.co/W63eK921D3 pic.twitter.com/rbSnzsalJc
— Robin Alexander (@robinalexander_) January 31, 2025
Updated
Serbian students continue protest ahead of blockade of Danube bridges
After a freezing night out in the open, hundreds of striking Serbian students have resumed their 2-day anti-graft protest march from the capital, Belgrade to the northern city of Novi Sad, the Associated Press reports.
They plan to blockade three bridges over the River Danube this weekend, marking three months since a huge concrete construction at the railway station in Novi Sad collapsed on Nov. 1, leaving 15 people dead.
But AP also reported a worrying incident as a driver in Belgrade rammed their car into silent protest, slightly injuring a woman, the third such incident in weeks.
Updated
First poll shows Scholz's SDP up after Wednesday's vote
in Berlin
German media is reporting the first poll to emerge since the Bundestag showdown on Wednesday shows that Merz’s CDU/CSU has fallen by 1 percentage point, to 29%, while the SPD of Olaf Scholz has gained 1.5 points, bringing it to 17%, its best result since the end of December.
The AfD remains stable at 22%. The Greens have gained half a percentage point. The poll was carried out for INSA, exclusively for the tabloid Bild.
Back to Germany, we’re hearing that there is a chance we could be back under way at 1.30pm.
Let’s see.
Updated
Note that this breakthrough in budgetary talks is by all means not the end of the drama in Paris: as our correspondent, Angelique Chrisafis, explained yesterday:
The national assembly remains politically divided and the government does not have an absolute majority. Without majority backing, Bayrou may decide to use article 49.3 of the constitution, which allows a government to force through legislation without a vote in parliament.
This would probably cause opposition lawmakers to trigger a vote of no-confidence later next week, potentially on Wednesday.
Breakthrough in budgetary talks in France
Meanwhile, it looks like there may have been a breakthrough in budgetary discussions in France.
Reuters is reporting that Boris Vallaud from the Socialist party said that French lawmakers’ panel has reached an agreement regarding the budget.
The agreed budget is likely to be put to vote on Monday.
You can read more about the process in this update from our yesterday’s blog (13:07).
Political deadlock comes after Merkel's intervention - analysis
in Berlin
The CDU’s parliamentary secretary Thorsten Frei requested the interruption to the plenary session this morning to enable a meeting of the Union faction which was supposed to take half an hour.
Well over an hour since that break was called, we are hearing that the Union is negotiating behind the scenes with both the SPD and the Greens about the possibility of getting a majority without the AfD, by amending the law.
We understand the Greens and SPD have no intention of supporting the law – damaged goods, you might call it. Even if it is amended, there is no way they could give it their backing.
Merz is reported to have told his CDU/CSU MPs this morning:
“We have to weather this storm,” and said the members had to prepare themselves for tough times.
According to some in the Union parliamentary faction, many of the dissenters belonged to Angela Merkel’s ‘camp’.
Were they swayed, or at least felt supported in their reluctance to back the law by Merkel’s public pronouncement yesterday in which she strongly criticised Merz for his U-turn on cooperating with the AfD?
Mood shift in the Bundestag with majority vote looking 'unlikely'
Trickling out of the corridors of the Bundestag is the news that the mood has decidedly changed regarding the so-called influx limitation law that Friedrich Merz was hoping to get through the Bundestag.
A majority vote is looking unlikely largely due to the fact that the liberal FDP want to have the vote postponed and to have it returned to where it originated – the interior committee.
The SPD is likely to agree to postpone the vote, as are the Greens.
Several dissenters, not only in the CDU/CSU but among the FDP have raised their heads to object to the law’s progress. The FDP’s parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr has signalled that he doesn’t want to have a final vote on the law until 11 February, at the next meeting of the Bundestag, and 12 days ahead of the general election.
German lawmakers feeling pressure from the electorate - snap analysis
in Berlin
If the debate fails today, and it might, this will probably be put down to do with the huge pressure that the MPs are feeling from the electorate, including the protests last night.
There’s as yet no poll reflecting the public’s reaction to the events on Wednesday. They will be interesting to see.
Party groups in meetings as they try to agree on what's next
The person speaking to the visitors in the public gallery has just given us the latest update, also for the press (thank you!), saying that essentially everyone is in various meetings right now and it may take a while before they come back.
“We will not move forward until the parliamentary groups have clarity as to which proposals are going to be brought forward today... or whether there is going to be further discussion in the Bundestag committees,” she said.
She added that she was “internally preparing” that this could take a while to resolve and end up with a late finish.
It is highly commendable that on the exact fifth anniversary of Brexit, the German parliament has decided to commemorate it with a session that has the feel of the British parliament during the Brexit years.
Constant interruptions, parliamentary groups meeting behind the scenes to talk about what to do with immigration, and a lot of time you’re just waiting for things to happen.
And there are now even fewer lawmakers in the chamber than before.
Updated
Thank you for your patience, visitors to Bundestag told
In a kind update to visitors to the Bundestag’s public gallery, a voice in the chamber has just said that they are obviously very welcome, but may need to be patient for a bit longer.
Two parliamentary groups are now in faction meetings discussing the rest of the day, she said.
But she reassured the visitors that she’s very happy they are there.
And so am I, with all of you staying with Europe live!
Frantic behind the scenes talks in Bundestag
German media are reporting a number of frantic meetings behind the scenes, with CDU/CSU leader, and potential future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reportedly meeting with the SPD and the Greens.
Elsewhere, the liberal FDP party leader, Christian Lindner, is suggesting sending the draft back to committee to avoid having a showdown today and delay the crunch vote until mid-February.
This may take a while, but shows how seriously so many in the Bundestag take the integrity of the “firewall” as they desperately want to avoid passing a draft law with the votes of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland.
Bundestag delays continue
In case you’re wondering: yes, they’re still not back at the Bundestag.
Most lawmakers are not even in the chamber, but some are catching up on phone calls and social media to kill some time.
I will bring you the latest when the Sitzungsunterbrechung is over.
We can't and won't sell Greenland, Danish foreign minister insists
Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has just been speaking to the country’s public broadcaster, DR, and offered his reaction to Marco Rubio’s words on Greenland overnight.
He said that “the substance” of the interview was that the US was ready to talk about its demands, but insisted Greenland was not for sale and its future would have to be decided by Greenlanders (and they don’t seem too keen.)
The minister said that under domestic and international law, Denmark could not sell Greenland even if it wanted to.
“In 1917, we sold the West Indies without asking the people there. We cannot do that in a modern society, and we will not,” he is quoted saying.
Denmark sold the West Indies to the US, which renamed it as the US Virgin Islands, for $25m (equivalent to just over $600m in 2024 terms if the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’s calculator is to be trusted.)
I mentioned Brexit earlier (sorry!).
The German economic daily Handesblatt is not mincing its words in discussing UK public attitudes to Brexit five years on.
After quoting the legendary British pollster, John Curtice, as saying that most Britons regret the decision but do not necessarily want to reverse it, the paper said in its morning newsletter:
“It is a contradiction that can probably only be understood in a country where having a tap with cold water and another with boiling hot water is considered the same as having running hot water.”
Ouch.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz will be in London on Sunday, before Keir Starmer goes across the Channel on Monday to enjoy a “working dinner” with EU leaders as part of their informal retreat at the Palais d’Egmont in Brussels.
So, in the meantime, elsewhere in Europe…
Norwegian police said on Friday they had arrested a Norwegian ship with an all-Russian crew on suspicion of involvement in causing damage to a fibre optic cable in the Baltic Sea, Reuters reports.
The arrest took place at the request of Latvian authorities, the police in the northern Norwegian city of Tromsoe said.
“It is suspected that the ship has been involved in serious damage to a fibre cable in the Baltic Sea between Latvia and Sweden,” the police said in a statement.
The Norwegian-owned and flagged vessel, named as Silver Dania, had been sailing from St. Petersburg in the Baltic Sea to Murmansk in the Russian Arctic, police said.
Bundestag delay - snap analysis
in Berlin
The Bundestag debate has been delayed for half an hour on request of the CDU, thought to be to do with misgivings within the party over the debate, not least due to large numbers of protesters outside the CDU headquarters in Berlin.
Bundestag debate on migration draft law delayed
CDU/CSU’s Thorsten Frei has just asked for a 30-minute break to allow for a meeting of the parliamentary party before we move ahead with the Influx Limitation Act debate.
So we will have a further delay here.
As we are waiting for the Bundestag to get going (they are still voting on energy motions)…
Our Guardian Europe columnist, Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, she says that while there are rational explanations for the continent’s muted response to Donald Trump’s threats is not how you deal with this president.
In other words, faced with yet another serious crisis, Europe – through a combination of reason and fear – is deciding to just muddle through. But convincing ourselves that everything will be all right is precisely what prevents the radical renewal that the continent badly needs. And a mere week into Trump’s presidency, a vital question looms: if a US president threatening an EU member state doesn’t jolt Europe out of its complacent slumber, then what will?
And if you’re thinking, OK, Jakub, but what’s going on with Germany, aren’t they supposed to be starting any moment now?!
Don’t worry, I’m keeping an eye on this.
There’s a bit of a delay, but I will bring you the latest when they start the debate, now expected around 10:45 CET. There is one vote on energy before.
Now, I simply have to pay tribute to a travel agency which published a full-page advert in the Danish papers today promoting its trips to Greenland with this slogan:
Discover what Trump, Mette and Mute are talking about.
(It’s Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s prime minister Múte B. Egede if you’re in doubt.)
Well played, Albatros. (Other tour operators, no doubt, are available, too.)
A six-day trip from Copenhagen is £760 (€910). But take warm clothes; it’s -5 degrees there today.
Danes see US a bigger threat than North Korea, Iran - poll
Almost half of Danish people now consider the US to be a considerable threat to their country and the overwhelming majority oppose Greenland leaving to become part of the US, new polling has found.
The research by YouGov, shared exclusively with the Guardian, comes after weeks of tension between Denmark, Greenland and the US over Donald Trump’s repeated assertions that he plans to take control of the autonomous territory, which is part of the Danish kingdom.
The poll of just over 1,000 people in Denmark, conducted between 15 and 22 January, found that 46% considered the US to be either “a very big threat” or “a fairly big threat” to Denmark.
This is higher than the number who said they considered North Korea or Iran a threat – of which 44% and 40% did respectively.
But the threat of Russia remains considerably higher; 86% of respondents said they considered Moscow a threat.
Of those surveyed, 78% said they would oppose Greenland being sold to the US, but 72% said the final decision should be Greenland’s, not Denmark’s.
Miranda Bryant with the full story.
US interest in Greenland 'not a joke,' Rubio says
US state secretary Marco Rubio confirmed overnight that the US interest in Greenland is genuine and “not a joke.”
This is not about acquiring land for the purpose of acquiring land. This is in our national interest and it needs to be solved.
Speaking to Sirius XM, he said that as Greenland was already covered by the Nato mutual defence pact given its relationship with Denmark, it only strenghtened the US resolve to control it.
Here is his explanation in full:
The Arctic has some of the most valuable shipping lanes in the world and as some of the ice is melting, they become more and more navigable and we need to be able to defend that.
The Chinese are not an Arctic power, ... so they need to be able to have somewhere to stage from.
It is completely realistic that the Chinese will try to do in Greenland what they have done at the Panama Canal and other places: install facilities that get them cover to the Arctic, with the cover of a Chinese company, but then in reality that would serve a dual purpose that in a moment of conflict they could send naval vessels to that facility and operate from there, and that is completely unacceptable to the security of the world and the national security of the US.
Denmark can’t stop them, they would rely on the US to do so. So if the US is on the hook … as we are now … then we might as well have more control over what happens there.
I know it’s a delicate topic for Denmark, but it’s again a national interest item for the United States.
He declined to say if president Trump would succeed in buying Greenland (or restoring US authority over the Panama Canal), but insisted:
What I think you can rest assured of is that four years from now, our interest in the Arctic will be more secure; our interest in the Panama Canal will be more secure.
Why mainstream parties lose to insurgent populists – study
Speaking about that dilemma of how mainstream parties could or should deal with the far-right, Eleni Courea has the details of a new research that could give CDU/CSU’s Friedrich Merz some food for thought.
Voters in western democracies are turning away from mainstream political parties and towards populists because they are losing faith in their ability to implement meaningful change, a major report based on surveys of 12,000 voters has found.
The popularity of traditional centre-left and centre-right parties across major democratic countries has plummeted from 73% in 2000 to 51% today, according to research by the Tony Blair Institute.
Researchers looked in depth at the views of samples of 2,000 voters polled in each of six big democracies – the UK, US, Australia, Germany, France and Canada – and found they were “remarkably similar”.
They concluded that voters were increasingly turning away from centre-left and centre-right parties not for ideological reasons, but because confidence in their competence and integrity have plummeted.
Updated
Berlin protest against CDU/CSU’s migration policy – in pictures
Morning opening: Influx Limitation Act
The focus is back on Germany today, where the Bundestag will discuss the Influx Limitation Act, a draft law aimed at controlling migration better by tightening the rules in the existing laws on residence.
This is not a drill: unlike the vote on Wednesday, which was on a non-binding motion, this is an actual draft law.
Even if it is almost impossible for it to complete the legislative process before next month’s election, it sends a strong signal of intent and marks another milestone in German politics. And you can feel the tensions rising every day now.
On Thursday, former chancellor Angela Merkel has criticised CDU/CSU leader, and likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, for breaking the “firewall” and passing the motion on Wednesday with the help of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland.
Separately, Auschwitz survivors criticised the vote, which one of them, Albrecht Weinberg, saying directly: “What happened in the Bundestag on Wednesday reminded me of Germany in 1933 of how Hitler and the Nazi party managed to come to power through legitimate means.”
On Thursday night, a big group of protesters also showed up in front of the CDU/CSU headquarters to express their frustration.
For Merz, there is no easy way out. If he passes the draft law once again relying on the AfD votes, he will get more criticism in the final three weeks of the campaign. But if he suddenly fails to get a majority, he will appear weak and incapable of delivering on his promises.
Merz faces a perennial question of how to deal with the rise of the far right and whether more mainstream parties can make a dent in their electoral prospects by taking some of their language and ideas. But the fifth anniversary of Brexit today reminds us how it can end.
The debate on the proposal 20/12804 is scheduled to start 10:30am. We will bring you the latest.
There is also plenty of stories elsewhere in Europe, so it’s likely to be a lively one!
It’s Friday, 31 January 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.
