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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Opec and allies to cut oil output in October; gas prices jump after Russia pipeline closure – as it happened

European Union United States Russia Euro United Kingdom Gas Prices Europe Gazprom Germany OPEC
Opec and its allies have decided to cut output by 100,000 barrels per day
Opec and its allies have decided to cut output, pushing up the oil price today Photograph: Ramzi Boudina/Reuters

Closing summary

That’s all for today – here’s our main stories on the energy crisis:

The challenges facing Liz Truss’s government:

And in other news….

We’ll be back tomorrow… GW

European markets close in the red

European stock markets have closed in the red, after after a choppy Monday which saw the euro plunge to a two-decade low.

The main bourse all lost ground, amid fears of soaring gas prices and possible winter shortages after Gazprom failed to restart Nord Stream 1 on Saturday.

Germany’s DAX led the selloff, falling over 2%, led by carmakers Mercedes Benz and Porsche, and tyre maker Continental.

Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 2%, with France’s CAC down over 1%.

The FTSE 100, though, recovered its earlier losses to finish slightly higher, with oil companies boosted by the rise in crude prices after Opec’s production cut.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says Liz Truss’s victory lifted energy and defence stocks.

The new Prime Minister’s commitment to spending more on defence by upping the budget to 3% of GDP has boosted the sector, with BAE systems extending gains in early trade following news of her announcement. She is likely to take up the baton from Boris Johnson in his dedicated support for Ukraine and is likely to clamour for more support in terms of military hardware from European nations.

Her expressed distaste for a further windfall tax on the oil and gas sector will have added to the strength of energy giants today, which had already been boosted by the ratcheting higher of gas prices and the march back upwards of crude prices over supply constraints. BP and Shell were among the biggest climbers on the FTSE 100, while Harbour Energy in the FTSE 250 also gained more than 3%.’’

OPEC+ members have trusted their chairman, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman al-Saud, to intervene whenever necessary to stabilize crude markets.

That’s the word from a “Gulf source with knowledge of the matter” speaking to Reuters.

German gas importer Uniper isn’t ruling out the possibility of gas rationing in Europe’s largest economy, following the closure of Nord Stream 1.

“We cannot rule out that Germany might look at rationing gas as something that might have to be considered,” CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of an international gas conference in Milan.

He added:

“We know that the government wants to avoid this as much as possible because that would be a disaster for so many reasons.”

More here: Germany might consider gas rationing - Uniper CEO

Opec+ cuts production: what the experts say

By cutting production, Opec are trying to halt the recent price decline caused by macro-economic headwinds - including a slowing global economy, the war in Ukraine, and the persistent Covid-19 restrictions in China.

So explains Srijan Katyal, Global Head of Strategy & Trading Services at ADSS, who adds":

Prices for oil futures will likely rally in the short-term as markets will see the news as a positive catalyst for oil prices. These upsides may persist in the medium-term as well, as cuts from OPEC+ signal that the coalition is more focused on risks associated with a deteriorating demand outlook.

Moving forward, traders should also keep an eye on any developments of a potential price cap that G7 countries are currently trying to apply on Russian crude.”

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, warned this morning that cutting production targets would create more volatility and uncertainty, when markets are already uneasy.

An output cut won’t make them any friends at a time when the world is facing a cost-of-living crisis already and the group has failed to keep up with demand this year.

Matthew Holland at Energy Aspects said oil market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty, are worrying Opec:

“OPEC+ is wary of protracted price volatility generated by weak macro sentiment, thin liquidity and renewed China lockdowns, as well as uncertainty over a potential U.S.–Iran deal and efforts to create a Russian oil price cap.

Here’s AFP’s take:

The OPEC+ oil cartel agreed Monday to cut production for the first time in more than a year as it seeks to lift prices that have tumbled due to recession fears.

The move could irk the United States as it has pressed the group to increase output in order to bring down energy prices that have fuelled decades-high inflation….

While analysts had expected another modest increase at Monday’s ministerial meeting, OPEC+ said in a statement that it decided to reduce output by 100,000 barrels per day in October, returning to the production level of August.

One hundred thousand barrels may sound like a lot of oil, but it only equates to around 90 seconds of world oil demand (which is forecast to reach 99.7 million barrels/day for 2022).

So it’s more of a symbolic move – that Opec is prepared to cut output if necessary.

Opec’s move is the second part of Moscow’s retaliation over the G7’s move to cap the price of Russian oil, following the ongoing closure of Nord Stream 1 (typo corrected) as Bloomberg’s Javier Blas explains:

Saudi Arabia had hinted last month that output could be cut, to address the decline in oil prices, but Russia’s support will have helped keep the alliance together.

Updated

Some snap reaction to Opec’s move:

Opec+ to cut oil production by 100,000 barrels per day

Just in: oil cartel Opec and its allies, including Russia, has decided to cut oil output by 100,000 barrels per day in October.

The Opec+ group has decided to reverse the 100,000 barrels/day increase it agreed a month ago – which was itself a snub to calls from the White House for a larger increase.

The move is an attempt to support oil prices, after Brent crude dropped below $100/barrel in August, on fears that major economies were falling into recession, hitting demang for energy.

Brent has now extended its earlier gains, up 3.75% to $96.60 per barrel.

It also follows the decision by G7 countries last Friday to impose a price cap on Russian oil, to cut financial support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Anouncing the move, Opec+ says

The OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting noted the adverse impact of volatility and the decline in liquidity on the current oil market and the need to support the market’s stability and its efficient functioning.

Opec has also asked its chairman to consider calling an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting anytime to address any changes in the market if necessary, due to the “higher volatility and increased uncertainties”.

Otherwise, the group will meet on 5th October to set production levels in November.

Opec slashed production at the start of the pandemic in 2020, but gradually began increasing output as the global economy reopened. For many months it lifted production by 400,000 bpd, whch increased to 600,000 bpd in July and August.

Updated

Full story: Gas prices soar and pound and euro fall as Russia shuts Nord Stream pipeline

Gas prices surged on Monday and the pound and euro slumped after Russia shut down a big pipeline indefinitely.

Russia has used its control of gas supplies to exert pressure on European countries in retaliation against sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled gas company, closed the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany on Friday, saying it had found a leak requiring repair.

The threatened cuts to supplies of gas from Russia have prompted a scramble by European countries to store as much gas as possible before winter, as well as efforts to find alternative supplies.

However, the prospect of Russia cutting off an important pipeline completely caused prices to increase on Monday, as investors brace for severe shortages. The contract for gas delivery next month in the UK soared by 35%, to 550p a therm. That was an increase from the 410p a therm cost on Friday afternoon, and approaching the five-month high of nearly 650p set last month.

Winter gas prices were also up sharply. The wholesale UK gas contract for November jumped 27% to 638p a therm on Monday morning, while the December contract rose 26% to 720p a therm. Both are near last month’s record highs.

The benchmark Dutch TTF October gas contract rose by 30%, up €62 to €272 a megawatt hour.

Here’s the full story:

Motorists received a “raw deal” at the pumps despite a record petrol price drop last month, according to the RAC.

The average price of a litre of unleaded dipped below 170p (169.8p) at the end of August for the first time since May, with price cuts made by retailers in recent weeks resulting in the typical cost of filling a 55-litre petrol car falling from £100.16 at the start of the month to £93.39 at the end.

But the motoring organisation said it believed average forecourt petrol prices should be about 161p based on current wholesale costs.

Back in the energy markets, oil is rising as Opec and its allies hold their monthly meeting to set production limits.

Brent crude is now up 3.5% to $96.50 per barrel, following reports that Opec+ will consider whether to make a small cut to output, and that Russia might support the plan.

Nothing official yet, but the Opec+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is said to be supporting a 100,000 barrel/day cut.

We should hear more soon….

Pound unmoved by Truss victory

The pound is little changed, hovering around $1.15 against the dollar, on the news that Liz Truss will become the UK’s next prime minister.

She’s beaten Rishi Sunak, as expected, to become the next Conservative Party leader, by 81,326 votes to 60,399 – closer than some forecasts.

But that’s still left sterling close to the 29-month low hit this morning.

Truss will become PM tomorrow, and take on an in-tray bulging with serious problems, Including the energy crisis.

Truss is speaking now, and says she will deal with the crisis in people’s energy bills, as well as delivering a bold plan to cut taxes and grow the economy.

Our Politics Liveblog has all the details.

Updated

Our daily liveblog on the Russia-Ukraine war has all the details on the conflict, including Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy reporting progress in the counter-offensive in the south, and the Kremlin blaming Western sanctions for the closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline:

Surging gas prices have hammered investor confidence across the eurozone, as recession risks rise.

The closely followed Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index plunged further into negative territory, at -31.8 for September from -25.2 in August.

This was the lowest reading since May 2020, at the height of the pandemic.

Economic expectations tumbled too, to the worst since December 2008 (when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis)

Summing up the dire picture, Sentix Managing Director Manfred Huebner says:

Never before in more than 20 years of history, with the exception of the financial crisis in 2008, have investors’ assessments of the euro zone economy been so weak - and at the same time expectations have been so low,”

A German government spokesperson has said today’s soaring gas prices (for example) are an intended consequence of the shutdown of Nord Stream 1, Reuters reports.

The spokesperson adds that “we are doing everything” to get through winter even wthout Russian gas, but warned there are “difficult months ahead”.

Euro and pound still lower against surging dollar

The euro has recovered some of this morning’s losses, but it still languishing below parity against the strong US dollar.

The single currency is trading around $0.99, having hit two-decade lows in early trading.

Thanim Islam, market strategist at international business payments firm Equals Money, says the gas crisis will continue to hurt the euro:

Whilst Germany has been preparing for a total shut-off of gas supplies from Russia by looking for alternative sources as well as having gas stores at 85% of capacity, the news is likely to weigh in on the euro over coming months. With risks of a recession rising and raising the prospects of rationing in the Winter.

Sterling has nudged back to $1.15, having hit its lowest level since March 2020 this morning. At one point, the pound came to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985.

It’s important to remember that the dollar is at 20-year highs against a basket of currencies, lifted by the prospect of higher US interest rates (and because America is less hurt by the energy crisis than Europe).

Economist Julian Jessop argues that we’re not facing a sterling crisis:

Kremlin blames Western sanctions for pipeline outage

The Kremlin has blamed Western sanctions for a complete shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, Reuters reports.

In a conference call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said sanctions were “causing chaos” in terms of maintenance work on the pipeline and rejected claims Russia had turned off supplies to Europe as a political move.

Peskov said:

“Problems with gas supply arose because of the sanctions imposed on our country by Western states, including Germany and Britain.

“There are no other reasons that lead to problems with supplies.

Peskov said that if sanctions were lifted, the repair work could be completed easily and gas flows could resume.

More here: Kremlin blames Europe for Nord Stream 1 halt, saying sanctions hamper maintenance

Last month German Chancellor Olaf Scholz posed with a Nord Stream 1 turbine which has been serviced in Canada, but was now at a Siemens Energy factory in Muelheim an der Ruhr.

Scholz said there was no reason the stranded turbine couldn’t be returned to Russia, while Moscow blamed a lack of documentation….

Updated

UK November and December gas prices jump

The British wholesale gas contract for immediate delivery has jumped 20%, to 360p per therm.

Winter gas prices are rising too – which will bring even more pain to businesses and consumers if they remain at these levels (or rise even higher).

The wholesale UK gas contract for November has jumped 27% to 638p per therm, while the December contract has risen 26% to 720p per therm. Both are near last month’s record highs.

Updated

UK next-day wholesale gas prices surges

The day-ahead wholesale UK gas price has more than doubled this morning, as prices surged back towards this year’s record highs.

Gas for delivery tomorrow has surged by 140% to 360p per therm, after Russia’s decision to shut the Nord Stream 1 pipeline intensified the energy crisis facing Europe.

The day-ahead UK gas price
The day-ahead UK gas price Photograph: Refinitiv

That more than wipes out Friday’s dramatic falls, when the markets were hopeful that Nord Stream 1 would resume operations on Saturday morning, as expected.

This contract closed at a record settlement price of 570p in mid-August, and briefly hit 670p back in March.

Two years ago, next-day gas cost around 30p per therm, before rising demand, energy shortages, and then the Ukraine war all drove up gas prices.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould, says:

“Predictably, wholesale gas prices are soaring, raising the prospect of even higher energy bills for businesses and consumers and sending the pound and the euro to new multi-year lows against the dollar.

“The US is in the enviable position of having relatively high levels of energy independence which insulate it from Putin’s proxy battle in the energy market as he looks to punish Europe for its support for Ukraine in the current conflict.

“This step was not entirely unexpected and everyone will be looking for answers to the current crisis, however it seems unlikely investments in new sources of energy will bear much fruit in the short term.”

UK recession looms after private sector shrank in August

More bad new. The UK economy shrank in August, in a sign that Britain’s economy could be falling into recession as energy prices spiral.

The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which covers UK service firms and factories, has fallen into contraction territory, due to a “severe and accelerated drop in UK manufacturing output” and a slowdown in the services sector.

The index, a gauge of activity, has dropped to 49.6, from 52.1 in July, and weaker than the ‘flash’ reading of 50.9 taken during August.

This is the first reading below 50 (showing a contraction) in 18 months, when firms were suffering from Covid-19 lockdowns.

The report found that demand for consumer-facing services such as restaurants, hotels, travel and other recreational activities is collapsing, as the cost of living crisis forces consumers to cut back.

Business confidence has slumped, with businesses reporting a drop in new orders – including the biggest drop in export demand since January 2021.

The report warns:

Elevated price pressures remain a worry for service sector companies, notably for energy, as does the prospect of higher interest rates and possible recession.

The report suggests Britain is slipping into recession, as soaring energy costs drive inflation into double-digit levels – highlighting the challenge facing the next prime minister.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chris Williamson says there is an “increasingly broadbased malaise” across the economy:

“Jobs growth is already starting to weaken and, with hiring tending to lag changes in order books, the recent slump in demand alongside surging energy prices points to a growing reticence to employ staff in coming months.

“Although the survey data are currently consistent with the economy contracting at a modest quarterly rate of 0.1%, deteriorating trends in order books suggest the incoming prime minister will be dealing with an economy that is facing a heightened risk of recession, a deteriorating labour market and persistent elevated price pressures linked to the soaring cost of energy.”

The energy crisis, soaring inflation, and recession worries have dragged down Eurozone business activity for the second month running.

The services sector contracted in August, the latest survey of purchasing managers shows, following a drop in manufacturing output reported on Friday.

The decline was particularly marked in the euro area’s largest economy, Germany, reports data provider S&P Global.

It found that the eurozone services sector shrank at the fastest pace in 17 months, pulling the wider euro economy into its biggest decline in 18 months.

This increases the risk that the eurozone has fallen into recession this quarter, explains Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The deterioration is also becoming more broad-based, with services now joining manufacturing in reporting falling output. Having led the growth spurt earlier in the year, consumer-facing services such as travel, tourism and recreation are now reporting falling activity levels as the rising cost of living pushes households to cut back on nonessential spending.

Financial services (notably including real estate) are meanwhile feeling the squeeze from higher interest rates, and industrial services are seeing their manufacturing customers reduce their spending amid the downturn in demand for goods.

Over in Turkey, inflation has hit a new 24-year high…. of over 80%.

Consumer prices jumped by 80.2% in the last year, the Turkish Statistics Institute reports, the highest since 1998.

It’s the 15th monthly increase in inflation in a row, as energy and food prices have rocketed, partly due to the weak lira following cuts to Turkish interest rates last year.

Such high inflation is a heavy blow for consumers and businesses, but Bloomberg points out that it’s slightly lower than feared:

The median forecast of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 81.2%. Price growth reached 1.5% on a monthly basis, less than anticipated in a separate poll.

“The somewhat lower-than-expected inflation in Turkey in August is welcome news for the government and the central bank,” said Per Hammarlund, chief emerging markets strategist at SEB.

“However, with energy prices set to rise again going into the winter months, the problem of high inflation has not been solved.”

Although European gas prices leapt by 30% this morning, they’re not yet above the record highs set this year.

That suggests that the risk of further disruption to Russian gas supplies to Europe had already been priced in:

French day-ahead baseload electricity prices have jumped 19%, touching €590/MWH.

Germany’s wholesale electricity prices have also jumped this morning.

The year-ahead baseload power contract has jumped 24% to €620 per MW hour.

A year ago, this contract traded €75/MWH – before the Ukraine war drove up energy prices so dramatically.

Last month, the contract briefly hit €1000/MWH, a record high, in the scramble to buy up energy.

UK wholesale gas prices are pushing even higher, as the markets react to Russia’s decision to indefinitely suspend flows of gas through Nord Stream 1 to continental Europe.

The month-ahead UK gas contract has rocketed by almost 35% today to 550p per therm.

That’s up from 410p/therm on Friday afternoon, when gas prices had fallen on hopes that Nord Stream 1 would resume operations as planned.

Updated

Oil rises - could Opec cut production?

The oil price is rising this morning, on suggestions that the Opec+ group of producers could decide to cut production today.

Opec and its allies hold a regular monthly meeting from around noon, and sources suggest that they will discuss reducing oil production by 100,000 barrels per day in October.

This has pushed up the Brent crude price by almost 3% this morning, to $95.65 per barrel.

Earlier this year, Opec had been steadily increasing production, with the White House urging them to pump even more to bring down gasoline prices.

Last month, they agreed to increase production by 100,000 bpd in September, much less than the 600,000bpd increase in both July and August.

Brent crude has fallen since June, when it hit $125 per barrel, bring some relief to businesses and motorists. But Opec members may be keen to restrict output to push the price higher.

Germany’s DAX index has fallen further into the red, now down 2.6%, as the ongoing shutdown of Nord Stream 1 spooks investors in Frankfurt.

German utilities are being hit hard, with Uniper tumbling 9%, and RWE, E.ON and PNE all in the red too.

Updated

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor sums up the early morning action so far:

“The euro has slumped below $0.99 for the first time in twenty years after Russia indefinitely shut down the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Europe as the G7 agrees to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. European stock markets have opened sharply lower while gas prices are soaring amid the fresh squeeze on supply.

Dutch wholesale gas prices are up almost 30% so far in today’s session.

Risk-off sentiment has lifted the US dollar index to the highest level since 2002, with the pound slumping to a 2.5 year low.

In a big week for UK politics, Liz Truss is expected to be announced as the next prime minister. She is poised to announce a plan to tackle the energy crisis this week if she is appointed Tory leader.

There are several reports this morning that Truss is mulling a freeze on energy bills, although no details of how this would be done.

My colleague Andrew Sparrow’s Politics Live blog has all the details, ahead of the results of the leadership race at lunchtime.

Updated

European stock markest have opened sharply lower.

Germany’s DAX was down 1.8% at the open, as was Spain’s IBEX, while France’s CAC lost 1.9%.

The London stock market has opened in the red, as the energy crisis worries investors.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 index has dropped by 60 points, or 0.8%, to 7221 points, towards last Thursday’s six-week lows.

Ninety of the hundred stocks on the FTSE 100 are in the red, with packaging firms Smurfit Kappa (-5.6%) and DS Smith (-3.1%), building materials firm CRH (3.5%) and investment groups 3i (3.5%) and Abrdn (-3.3%) among the fallers.

UK month-ahead gas price jumps 25% at open

UK wholesale gas prices have jumped sharply in early trading too.

The contract for gas delivery next month has risen by 25%, to 513p per therm, towards the five-month highs of nearly 650p set last month.

UK month-ahead gas prices
UK month-ahead gas prices Photograph: Refinitiv

Higher gas prices will have an immediate impact on businesses, and will also influence the price cap on British energy bills (which is already set to rise 80% in October, and will be next adjusted in January).

Updated

European benchmark gas contract soars 30% on market opening

As feared, European wholesale gas prices have surged at the start of trading.

The benchmark Dutch TTF October gas contract has risen by 30%, up €62 to €272 per megawatt hours (MWh).

The surge comes as traders react to the continued shutdown in Russia’s gas supplies to Europe through Nord Stream 1.

That pipline runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, and historically supplied around a third of the gas exported from Russia to Europe (but was already running at just 20% of capacity before the outage for maintenance last week).

Gas prices likely to hit new highs as Russia shuts pipeline indefinitely

Analysts are expecting gas prices to surge to record highs this week after Russia shut down the Nord Stream 1 key pipeline to Europe.

Nathan Piper, an oil and gas analyst at Investec, said:

“We are expecting record gas prices across UK/Europe next week as the impact of long-term restrictions of Russia gas supply is absorbed by the market following the indefinite shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.”

He added that the gas price “will remain volatile, and I’d expect a sharp move up tomorrow towards record 700-800p a therm highs.

“However, the key and worrying point is that this is in the middle of summer – prices could move higher as demand increases for heating into winter … A big price jump next week has major implications on the [UK] energy price cap, and the cost for business/industry, who don’t have a price cap at all.”

Pound falls to lowest since March 2020

Sterling is also falling in early trading, hitting its lowest point against the dollar in almost 30 months.

The pound has dropped by half a cent to $1.1460, its weakest point against the US dollar since March 20th 2020.

Below that point, it will be the weakest since 1985.

Naeem Aslam, chief markets analyst at Avatrade, says fears of an energy crisis this winter are hitting sterling and the euro.

We believe that the actual reason that we are experiencing such an intense sell for the Euro and Sterling is that traders are worried that as winter is approaching, the situation with respect to energy resources is going to become a lot worse. This is despite the fact that lawmakers in the EU and in the UK are trying their best to assure everyone that they have the situation under control and Russia cannot dictate their future.

However, the reality is that a conflict with Russia has sent the energy prices through the roof in Europe and in the UK. Consumers are struggling every day and worried about their energy bills. There is no short fix for this, given the nature of the economic health of the EU and UK, and a major disaster could be on the horizon.

Updated

Introduction: Euro hits two-decade low after gas pipeline shutdown

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

The financial markets are being rocked by the shutdown of Russia’s Nord Stream1 pipeline, as the energy squeeze on European economies intensifies as winter approaches.

The euro has fallen to a two-decade low in early trading this morning, after Russian energy major Gazprom extended the shutdown of its gas pipeline to Germany on Friday evening.

Fears over sky-high energy prices, and possible shortages, pushed the euro further below parity against the US dollar. sending the single currency as low as $0.9879 against the US dollar for the first time in two decades.

Nord Stream 1 was due to restart operations on Saturday morning, after a three-day shutdown for maintenance. But Gazprom dashed hopes of a resumption on Friday night, blaming a leak.

Analysts predict gas prices will soar, having fallen back from recent highs last week.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

Russia’s actions on Friday in indefinitely closing the pipeline could see renewed upward pressure on European and UK natural gas prices when markets reopen today, after seeing big falls in prices last week as UK natural gas prices fell 39%, while European prices fell 33%.

European stock markets are heading for sharp losses at the open, with Germany’s DAX down 2-3% in the futures market.

Also coming up today.

The OPEC group and its allies are meeting to set production targets for October today. They’re likely to leave output quotes unchanges, although they could consider a small cut to production to prop up the oil prices.

The latest service sector PMI reports will show how companies in the UK and eurozone fared last month.

And UK car sales are expected to have risen slightly in August, according to the monthly data from the SMMT.

The agenda

  • 9am BST: UK new car sales for August

  • 9am BST: Eurozone service sector PMI for August

  • 9.30am BST: UK service sector PMI for August

  • 10am BST: Eurozone retail sales for July

  • Noon BST: Opec meeting+ begins

Updated

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