AUSTIN, Texas — The number of transgender youth in Texas is higher than previously predicted at least in part due to better data collection, according to new estimates from the nation’s top research institute for LGBT issues.
An estimated 29,800 Texans between the ages 13 and 17 identified as transgender on federal surveys the state administered between 2017 and 2019, the statistical analysis by the Williams Institute at the University of California at Los Angeles showed. This accounted for about 1.42% of Texans in that age group.
While still statistically small, the number was more than double the previous estimate of 13,800, and tracked with an uptick in the number of trans youth across the country. The institute’s estimates show there are now roughly 300,000 people in this age group who identify as transgender nationwide.
The Williams Institute study estimates the number of trans adults nationwide is around 1.3 million people, only slightly lower than previously estimated.
Researchers say better and more complete data collection accounts for some of the shifting numbers. The estimates are based on surveys about sexual orientation and gender identity from the Centers for Disease Control that can be optionally administered by the states.
Texas was not taking part in the survey when the Williams Institute’s was putting together its first study on transgender demographics, said Jody L. Herman, the new study’s lead author explained, forcing researchers to estimate the state’s numbers based on other factors.
Since Texas now takes part in the CDC’s optional survey, the estimates released this week provide the first and best look at the number of trans Texans over time based on this more accurate information.
“It’s coming direct from the people, which is different” than in previous years, Herman said.
She cautioned, however, that there is likely no one explanation for the shift in numbers. The higher estimates of transgender youth, which Herman said are “notable” but still statistically small, could be attributed to better data as well as more awareness among teens of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people.
The new estimates come as conservative Texas politicians are targeting gender-affirming care for trans youth. Last year, the region’s largest medical program for trans youth based at a hospital in Dallas shuttered treatments like puberty blockers and hormone therapy to new patients, and earlier this year, the state began investigating the families of trans teens receiving this kind of care for child abuse.
Both decisions are being challenged in court. Doctors at the Dallas hospital were allowed to resume seeing trans youth seeking gender-affirming medical treatments temporarily while the issue is being litigated, and at least one abuse investigation is on hold. Three additional families sued this week.
Age-appropriate and individualized medical treatments for trans youths, including the ones Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has called abuse, are supported by the state and nation’s largest physicians groups including the American and Texas Medical Associations. These groups have opposed the state’s abuse investigations and other efforts to block or alter gender-affirming care for minors.
The study estimates there are about 92,900 adult transgender Texans.
The region identified as the south, including Texas, had the highest number of transgender residents of all ages. But the northeast had the most transgender youth and adults per capita, at 1.82% and 0.57% of the total population respectively.
A higher rate of youth than adults identify as transgender nationwide, the estimates found. This was also true of bi- and multi-racial respondents, who identified as transgender 1% of the time, compared to 0.5% for white and 0.6% for Black respondents.
In Texas, more Latinx people identified as transgender than any other racial group in sheer number and by rate, according to the estimates. Roughly 42% of adult transgender Texans identify as Latinx, compared to one in three white and one in 10 Black respondents.
The number of LGBT Latinx Texans is slightly higher than their overall share of the population, which sits at just less than 40%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. White Texans account for about 41% of the state’s population.
Herman explained that Latinx populations also skew younger. Since the transgender population also skews younger, there are naturally going to be higher rates of Latinx transgender people.
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