New York-based The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. Valued at a market cap of $21.1 billion, the company owns a diverse portfolio of well-known brands including Estée Lauder, MAC, Clinique, La Mer, and Jo Malone London. It is scheduled to announce its fiscal Q3 earnings for 2025 before the market opens on Thursday, May 1.
Ahead of this event, analysts expect this cosmetics company to report a profit of $0.30 per share, down 69.1% from $0.97 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company has a solid trajectory of consistently beating Wall Street’s earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. In Q2, EL’s EPS of $0.62 topped the forecasted figure by a notable margin of 93.8%.
For fiscal 2025, analysts expect EL to report a profit of $1.35 per share, down 47.9% from $2.59 in fiscal 2024. Nonetheless, its EPS is expected to rebound in fiscal 2026 and grow by 65.9% year over year to $2.24.
EL has fallen 60.2% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 8.2% uptick, and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLP) 6.7% rise over the same time frame.
On Feb. 4, EL’s shares crashed 16.1% after its Q2 earnings release despite delivering stronger-than-expected adjusted EPS of $0.62 and revenue of $4 billion. However, its net sales declined 6.4% year-over-year, driven by a notable 11.6% drop in skincare sales and weaker performance in its makeup and hair care segments. The results were impacted by a difficult retail environment in the Asia-Pacific region and continued weakness in its Asia travel retail business, particularly due to subdued consumer sentiment in China. Additionally, its adjusted EPS fell 29.5% from the prior-year quarter. Adding to the downtick, EL expects a 10% to 12% decline in Q3 sales and a steep 69% to 79% year-over-year drop in adjusted EPS ranging $0.20 to $0.30.
Wall Street analysts are cautious about EL’s stock, with a "Hold" rating overall. Among 27 analysts covering the stock, three recommend "Strong Buy," one indicates a “Moderate Buy,” and 23 suggest “Hold” rating. The mean price target for EL is $71.04, which indicates a 21.1% potential upside from the current levels.
