ESPN updates its SP+ Rankings. Where is Ohio State after offensive explosion vs. Toledo?

One of the most interesting metrics we like to follow that correlates to a college football team’s strength and talent is ESPN’s SP+ rankings (subscription required) by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The model has heaped some love on Ohio State over the last few years and we like to see where things stand from year-to-year, month to month, and week to week.

Early on before the season, the SP+ was bullish on the Buckeyes. And it makes sense because the model takes into account things like historical performance of recent years, recruiting, and returning talent. That’s always going to bode well for a program like OSU. But since the season started, Ohio State has dropped a wee bit in the SP+. But what goes into the ratings, bleeps, and bloops of the model?

Buy Buckeyes Tickets

According to ESPN:

“The SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a resume ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

OK. Kind of makes sense, right? Ohio State wasn’t entirely impressive against Notre Dame, looked a bit better against Arkansas State, and then blew the doors off of Toledo.

But where are the Buckeyes after that 77-point output? Here is what the newly released top 25 of the SP+ looks like, with Ohio State still very near the top.

25

Baylor Bears (2-1)

Jan 1, 2022; New Orleans, LA, USA; Baylor Bears helmets on the sidelines in the first quarter of the 2022 Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

14.1

24

Michigan State Spartans (2-1)

November 19, 2011; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartan helmet on sideline during the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Spartan Stadium. Michigan State won 55-3 to clinch the Legends division of the Big Ten. Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

14.5

23

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-1)

Dec. 26, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; A Mississippi State Bulldogs helmet on the field prior to the game between the Miami Redhawks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tropicana Field. Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

14.5

22

LSU Tigers (2-1)

Oct 6, 2018; Gainesville, FL, USA; A detail view of LSU Tigers football helmets against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

14.6

21

Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0)

Nov 23, 2019; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; General view of Arkansas Razorbacks helmet during the second half game against LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium. Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

14.8

20

Oregon Ducks (2-1)

An “End racism” sticker joins the American Flag on the helmets of Oregon players Saturday Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

14.8

19

NC State Wolfpack (3-0)

Nov 13, 2021; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; A North Carolina State Wolfpack helmet seen on the sideline during the second half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Truist Field. Credit: William Howard-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

15.9

18

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2)

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 29: A detail view of a Notre Dame Fighting Irish players helmet showing the CFP logo during the College Football Playoff Semifinal Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic against the Clemson Tigers at AT&T Stadium on December 29, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

SP+ Overall Score

15.9

17

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1)

Oct 3, 2020; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats helmet during the game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the South Florida Bulls at Nippert Stadium. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

16.4

16

Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0)

Nov 10, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of a Minnesota Golden Gophers helmets before a game against the Purdue Boilermakers at TCF Bank Stadium. Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

16.8

15

Wisconsin Badgers (2-1)

Nov 9, 2019; Madison, WI, USA; A Wisconsin Badgers helmet during the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

17.2

14

Texas Longhorns (2-1)

Nov 10, 2018; Lubbock, TX, USA; A Texas Longhorns helmet on the sidelines during the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium. Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

17.4

13

Oklahoma State (3-0)

Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of an Oklahoma State Cowboys helmet during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

17.6

12

Utah Utes (2-1)

Sept. 14, 2019; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; A general view of the helmet worn by Utah Utes quarterback Tyler Huntley (1) against the Idaho State Bengals at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

18.0

11

Texas A&M Aggies (2-1)

Oct 23, 2021; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies helmet on the sideline during the game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Kyle Field. Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

18.2

10

Kentucky Wildcats (3-0)

Oct. 27, 2018; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Kentucky Wildcats helmet during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

18.5

9

Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)

Nov 16, 2013; University Park, PA, USA; General view of a Penn State Nittany Lions helmet prior to the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

18.8

8

Tennessee Volunteers (3-0)

Nov 23, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Tennessee Volunteers helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

20.8

7

Clemson Tigers (3-0)

The Clemson football helmet near the Fiesta Bowl trophy at the coaches’ press conference in Scottsdale, Arizona Friday December 27, 2019. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network

SP+ Overall Score

21.4

6

Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)

Oct. 12, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Mississippi Rebels helmet during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

21.9

5

Michigan Wolverines (3-0)

Nov 18, 2017; Madison, WI, USA; An Michigan Wolverines helmet during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

25.4

4

Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)

Oklahoma helmets are seen before a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

26.1

3

Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)

Sat., Jan. 1, 2022; Pasadena, California, USA; A special rose helmet stripe adorns Thayer Munford’s helmet before the start of the 108th Rose Bowl Game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Utah Utes at the Rose Bowl. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

30.0

2

Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

Jul 18, 2018; Atlanta, GA, USA; An Alabama Crimson Tide helmet is shown on the main stage during SEC football media day at the College Football Hall of Fame. Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

32.2

1

Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

Dec 12, 2020; Columbia, Missouri, USA; A detailed view of a Georgia Bulldogs helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ Overall Score

33.5

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on Twitter.

Let us know your thoughts, and comment on this story below. Join the conversation today.