Led by the likes of Alperen Sengun (No. 16 overall pick in 2021), Tari Eason (No. 17 in 2022), and Cam Whitmore (No. 20 in 2023), the Houston Rockets have found a surprising amount of production in recent years from picks made in the second half of the first round.
Now, according to statistical models from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, there’s an ability to quantify just how much.
Over the past five drafts (2019 to 2023), the three teams that have added the most value on a per-pick basis relative to what we would expect based on where they picked all have ties to the Houston Rockets’ front office. Along with Houston, that group includes the Philadelphia 76ers, who hired longtime Rockets executive Daryl Morey in 2020, and the Sacramento Kings, who hired Monte McNair from Houston in 2020 as their lead executive. Those teams rank just ahead of the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz.
Although Morey oversaw only one of those drafts, the Rockets themselves are far and away No. 1 by this measure, getting almost double the expected value of their picks. Houston picked the two players who most exceeded the expectations for their draft spot, Alperen Sengun at No. 16 in 2021, and Cam Whitmore at No. 20 last year.
Per ESPN’s @kpelton, the #Rockets are “far and away” No. 1 for adding the most draft value over the past five years, relative to draft slots.https://t.co/CPy779DKS1 pic.twitter.com/IG2jpQlZJP
— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) June 23, 2024
It’s a strong endorsement for Houston’s current front office, led by general manager Rafael Stone and assistant general manager Eli Witus. Yet, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t currently have a pick in the middle-to-late portions of the 2024 first round, which is the area the Rockets have most frequently outperformed from.
So, for the Rockets to keep that streak going, the path will be a bit more challenging with only the No. 3 overall selection.
