Could the Carolina Panthers have a say in the NFL draft’s No. 1 overall pick for the third year in a row? According to some numbers from the worldwide leader, they seem to have a pretty good chance.
ESPN recently released their NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections for the 2024 season. As you’d assume, the model and its predictive ratings aren’t too kind to the Panthers—who were given the lowest FPI at -6.7.
That, obviously, would put Carolina in contention for the worst record in the league (again) as well as the 2025’s draft top selection. And for that, FPI gives them a 21-percent chance at the pick—second only to the New England Patriots and their 22 percent.
Seth Walder, ESPN analytics writer, noted the following:
New England’s league-topping strength of schedule combined with the FPI’s skepticism regarding its roster has the model believing the Patriots are the most likely team to pick first in the 2025 NFL draft, with a 22% chance. The Panthers rate lower than the Patriots in the FPI, but their chance at picking No. 1 is slightly worse (21%).
If Carolina ends up earning the No. 1 pick again (it would get to use it this time), it will likely be looking for Bryce Young’s successor — although it remains to be seen whether there’s a 2025 quarterback worthy of going first.
The Panthers picked from the very top in 2023, after they agreed to a massive deal with the Chicago Bears. Included in that trade was their 2024 first-round pick—which, of course, ended up being the No. 1 overall pick of the whole event.
FPI is also giving Carolina a 63-percent chance at landing a top-five pick for next spring.
