Sports science is becoming a bigger factor in covering the NFL every day, with predictive models quickly carving out a niche. ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder shared his projections for the top 50 pass rushers in the league this year, following the same model he’s used to some success in past seasons.
It’s not a great outlook for the New Orleans Saints. Despite having invested multiple contract extensions and early-round draft picks in their defensive line, just one player is projected to rank inside the top-50: defensive end Cameron Jordan.
That in itself isn’t much of a surprise. Jordan has led the team in sacks more often than not since his 2011 rookie year. But ESPN’s model forecasts just 7.4 sacks for Jordan in 2023, which both leads the team and ranks 22nd around the league. Jordan won the official Saints sacks record last season from Rickey Jackson, but pre-1982 charting at Pro Football Reference still awards Jackson with the unofficial franchise record (123). If this is an accurate prediction for Jordan, he’d come up half a sack shy of Jackson’s unofficial total.
Now, in real life the NFL counts half-sacks, so Jordan would either have 7.5 (if we round up) or 7.0 (which would be rounding down, of course). That latter number would be the move here, and it’s a dire picture. Jordan hasn’t had fewer than 7.5 sacks in a single season since he entered the league. For that number to set the pace for his teammates would be worrisome to say the least.
But it matches what we’ve seen so far. Carl Granderson peaked last year with 5.5 sacks as a part-time starter at defensive end. Payton Turner only has 3.0 sacks through his first two years as a pro. Tanoh Kpassagnon, Jordan’s primary backup, only had 2.0 sacks last season which lines up with his career average. Rookie draft pick Isaiah Foskey is looking like a typical slow-to-develop Saints defensive end.
Is this model legit? Last year it predicted Jordan and Marcus Davenport would have 6.5 and 6.4 sacks, respectively; they posted 8.5 and 0.5 each. A year earlier it called for 8.3 sacks for Jordan (he had 7.5), so it’s made more hits than misses.
Some other interesting names jump out from the 2023 projections. Davenport is expected to produce 6.8 sacks for the Minnesota Vikings this fall, while former Saints defensive end Trey Hendrickson is lined up for 9.5 sacks (he had just 8.0 sacks last year after bagging a career-high 14.5 of them the year before). One of the players picked immediately after Turner in 2021, Baltimore Ravens edge rusher Odafe Oweh, is predicted to bag 6.2 sacks. He has 8.0 sacks through his first two seasons.
