It’s really, really difficult to predict how a team’s season is going to play out. Especially months in advance, before pricey free agent additions have even hit the field and the rookie class has been drafted.
But ESPN’s Mike Clay is a very well-regarded prognosticator. He maintains a model of individual stats for fantasy football each season, and he’s looking very lukewarm on the New Orleans Saints. He’s predicting a modest performance from Derek Carr and his supporting cast, and a respectable showing from the Saints defense (despite all the talent they’ve lost this spring).
Let’s break down his projections for each position group two weeks out from the 2023 NFL draft:
Quarterbacks
- Derek Carr: 343-of-528, 3,746 passing yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs, 32 sacks; 33 carries for 124 rushing yards, 1 TD
- Jameis Winston: 20-of-31, 226 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks; 3 carries for 10 yards
Carr completed 67.3% or more of his passes every year from 2018 to 2021, when he was running a West Coast-style offense much more similar to New Orleans’ than the flawed system Josh McDaniels installed a year ago, so a 64.9% completion percentage feels a little low (as does the 10.9 yards per completion, which would be his lowest number since 2018). We’re also seeing some skepticism that Carr can connect on touchdown passes in scoring position. And 32 sacks would be his second-highest total in the last five years. He and the Saints offense have some things to prove this season.
Clay’s model also has Winston starting a game in Carr’s absence, averaging a slightly higher mark in yards per completion but with the same up-and-down performance we’ve seen before. Turning the ball over as often as he’s scoring points would be a tough look, but that’s been the case for him at times in his NFL career.
Running backs
- Alvin Kamara: 165 carries, 693 yards, 4 TDs (53 receptions, 473 yards, 2 TDs)
- Jamaal Williams: 163 carries, 670 yards, 6 TDs (22 receptions, 136 yards, 1 TDs)
- Eno Benjamin: 11 carries, 45 yards (11 receptions, 86 yards)
It’s a near-equal workload for Kamara and Williams on the ground, though Kamara of course is expected to see more targets. This projection assumes Kamara is limited to 12 games likely as part of the NFL suspension he’s expected to receive from last year’s off-field incident. It remains to be seen how a rookie draft pick could shake up these expectations. Clay’s initial model has Dwayne Washington with 21 carries and 8 targets, but he is not currently signed for the 2023 season.
Wide receivers
- Chris Olave: 121 targets, 73 receptions, 1,047 yards, 5 TDs
- Michael Thomas: 100 targets, 74 receptions, 719 yards, 4 TDs
- Rashid Shaheed: 50 targets, 33 receptions, 409 yards, 2 TDs
- Tre’Quan Smith: 21 targets, 14 receptions, 158 yards, 1 TD
- Bryan Edwards: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 84 yards, 1 TD
- Keith Kirkwood: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 39 yards
Olave is expected to repeat with another 1,000-yard season but we aren’t seeing the lofty expectations predicted of his pairing with Carr — probably because Thomas is expected to siphon targets away from his younger teammate if he can suit up for 13 games (as is the case in Clay’s model).
Shaheed’s numbers actually take a step back, too, after he put up 488 yards in just 12 games (with 6 starts) a year ago. Hopefully Edwards can reestablish his chemistry with Carr and push Smith and Kirkwood down the depth chart.
Tight ends
- Juwan Johnson: 66 targets, 41 receptions, 499 yards, 4 TDs
- Taysom Hill: 7-of-10, 76 yards, 1 sack; 61 carries for 323 rushing yards, 3 TD runs; 12 targets, 8 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 1 TD catch
- Adam Trautman: 27 targets, 19 receptions, 197 yards, 2 TDs
- Lucas Krull: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 378 yards
Clay is predicting similar volume of catches and yards for Johnson but a big regression in touchdown receptions, which doesn’t feel likely given his upward trajectory and the upgrade at quarterback. Carr has always used his tight ends well and Johnson feels like a great match for him in the red zone.
Trautman’s numbers are more in line with what we’ve seen before. He struggled to handle a larger volume of targets in 2021 (43, catching 27 of them) and has otherwise posted receiving totals of 15 and 18 catches. He isn’t likely to be much of a factor in the passing game especially if the Saints draft a tight end or sign Foster Moreau and wait out his lymphoma treatment.
As for Hill: he’s still listed as a tight end, but as we’ve discussed before, his do-it-all role sees him continuing to line up at quarterback more often than anywhere else, where he’s a real threat to take off and run. Four total touchdowns from scrimmage feels conservative for him after he scored 11 times last year.
Defensive line
- DE Cameron Jordan: 60 tackles, 8.0 sacks
- DE Carl LGranderson: 51 tackles, 7.0 sacks
- DE Tanoh Kpassagnon: 27 tackles, 3.8 sacks
- DT Khalen Saunders: 50 tackles, 3.4 sacks
- DE Payton Turner: 19 tackles, 3.0 sacks
- DT Nathan Shepherd: 38 tackles, 2.7 sacks
- DT Prince Emili: 32 tackles, 2.3 sacks
- DT Malcolm Roach: 36 tackles, 1.9 sacks
- DE Jabari Zuniga: 7 tackles, 1.1 sacks
Clay is projecting more production out of Granderson as he takes over for Marcus Davenport at the right end spot, with another solid year from Jordan. Depth is an issue behind them, though, and that’s also true at defensive tackle. The Saints shouldn’t be calling up guys from the practice squad like Emili and Zuniga to fill out the rotation. Turner needs to dramatically outperform these expectations. This is a good example of why the Saints need to invest another premium pick along the defensive line.
Linebackers
- Demario Davis: 111 tackles, 2.2 sacks, 1.0 INT
- Pete Werner: 106 tackles, 1.4 sacks, 0.6 INT
- Zack Baun: 42 tackles, 0.7 sacks
- Ryan Connelly: 15 tackles, 0.2 sacks
Clay’s model expects another strong year out of Davis and continued solid play from Werner, but things are dicey after those two. Baun really needs to show something and prove he was worth trading up for back in 2020. The Saints should be looking to add another linebacker as a Davis succession plan and for depth so they don’t have to bring Connelly up from the practice squad.
Defensive backs
- S Marcus Maye: 96 tackles, 1.6 INT
- S Tyrann Mathieu: 89 tackles, 2.9 INT
- CB Marshon Lattimore: 70 tackles, 2.2 INT
- CB Paulson Adebo: 71 tackles, 1.6 INT
- CB Bradley Roby: 42 tackles, 1.1 INT
- CB Alontae Taylor: 32 tackles, 1.2 INT
- S Lonnie Johnson Jr.: 20 tackles
- S Johnathan Abram: 17 tackles
It feels very optimistic to project Maye to play 1,000-plus snaps after his injury-plagued debut last year and with an NFL suspension (stemming from a 2021 DUI charge in Florida) likely ahead of him, but we’ll see. It’s also surprising to see Taylor so far down the depth chart after he outplayed Adebo and Roby last year. He should be starting. We’ll take the over on those numbers for him.
