It’s difficult to predict exactly how a season will go for a specific team. It’s even tougher to project the numbers a particular player will put up over the course of that season.
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects individual stats for players each season and he’s not expecting much from the Rams’ stars in 2023. He released his stat projections for the upcoming season, predicting a subpar season from Matthew Stafford and nothing particularly impressive from the running backs.
Clay does see Cooper Kupp having another big year, though. That should come as no surprise considering how heavily involved Kupp is on offense, eating up most of the targets from Stafford.
On defense, it’s Aaron Donald and then everyone else – though Clay does project Michael Hoecht to have seven sacks in what could be his first season as a starter.
Quarterback
- Matthew Stafford: 364-for-547, 3,914 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 42 sacks
That’s not a particularly impressive statline for Stafford. While the Rams would probably take 13 interceptions from him after he led the league with 17 in 2021, 22 touchdown passes is a disappointing number. It’s also hard to see him finishing with less than 4,000 yards passing; he’s hit that number in all but one season with at least 10 starts.
Running backs
- Cam Akers: 213 carries, 882 yards, 7 TDs (32 catches, 266 yards, 2 TDs)
- Kyren Williams: 104 carries, 447 yards, 3 TDs (23 catches, 174 yards, 1 TD)
- Ronnie Rivers: 37 carries, 158 yards, 1 TD (9 catches, 65 yards)
Akers hits 1,000 yards from scrimmage in this projection but it would be great to see him rush for at least 1,000 yards on the ground as the clear-cut starter.
Williams could eat into his carries some, but Sean McVay didn’t show a ton of confidence in him last year, even when the season was lost.
Wide receivers
- Cooper Kupp: 165 targets, 122 catches, 1,362 yards, 7 TDs
- Allen Robinson: 91 targets, 58 catches, 620 yards, 5 TDs
- Van Jefferson: 78 targets, 44 catches, 625 yards, 3 TDs
- Ben Skowronek: 36 targets, 22 catches, 245 yards, 1 TD
- Tutu Atwell: 12 targets, 7 catches, 90 yards
- Lance McCutcheon: 6 targets, 3 catches, 41 yards
Kupp is once again expected to dominate the share at wide receiver. Clay projects him to have more than twice the catches and yards as anyone else on the team, being Stafford’s favorite target on offense.
Robinson and Jefferson are viewed similarly by Clay, though neither of their statlines is all that impressive. It would be good to see one of them push 1,000 yards receiving.
Atwell’s numbers are especially shocking. Even with a crowded receiver room, there’s no way he only finishes with seven catches on the year.
Tight ends
- Tyler Higbee: 92 targets, 63 catches, 606 yards, 4 TDs
- Hunter Long: 30 targets, 20 catches, 205 yards, 1 TD
- Brycen Hopkins: 12 targets, 8 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD
As long as Higbee isn’t cut, he’ll be the No. 1 tight end. There isn’t much competition for the starting role from Long or Hopkins, though Clay does expect Long to catch about one pass per game after only recording one reception in his first two seasons.
Defensive line
- DT Aaron Donald: 74 tackles, 9.7 sacks
- DE Jonah Williams: 43 tackles, 2 sacks
- NT Marquise Copeland: 35 tackles, 1.4 sacks
- DE Earnest Brown: 28 tackles, 1.7 sack
- NT Bobby Brown: 17 tackles, 1 sack
Donald is really the only pass-rush threat along the defensive line now that Greg Gaines is gone. Williams and Copeland will be asked to step up early on, assuming the Rams don’t sign a free agent to take their spot, while Brown and Brown are projected to be backups heading into camp.
Linebackers
- OLB Michael Hoecht: 58 tackles, 7 sacks
- OLB Keir Thomas: 35 tackles, 4.8 sacks
- OLB Daniel Hardy: 29 tackles, 4.0 sacks
- ILB: Ernest Jones: 139 tackles, 1.2 sacks, 0.5 INT
- ILB Christian Rozeboom: 74 tackles, 1 sack
That’s actually a pretty favorable statline for Hoecht, who only transitioned from defensive tackle to edge rusher late last season. The Rams would happily take seven sacks from him next season.
Thomas and Hardy are battling for the spot on the other side, though a rookie or veteran addition this offseason could quickly bump both of them down a spot.
Jones is going to take on the Bobby Wagner role as the primary linebacker, playing all three downs on defense.
Defensive backs
- CB Derion Kendrick: 81 tackles, 1.5 INT
- CB Cobie Durant: 75 tackles, 2.2 INT
- CB Robert Rochell: 52 tackles, 1.5 INT
- S Jordan Fuller: 94 tackles, 1.6 INT
- S Russ Yeast: 91 tackles, 1.8 INT
- S Quentin Lake: 44 tackles, 1.2 INT
Predicting interception totals for defensive backs is almost impossible because it depends so heavily on how frequently a player is targeted in coverage.
Durant was a ball hawk as a rookie and in college, so he could easily pull down two picks. But it’s hard to see every other defensive back intercepting between one and two passes each.
