We know, we know, there are a pretty fair amount of predictions making the rounds on the internet for Ohio State and Notre Dame’s epic College Football Playoff Championship Game coming to a high-definition television or streaming device Monday night. However, one outlet that most folks are interested in following is “worldwide leader,” ESPN.
When it comes to ESPN, there are a couple of models used as predictive outcomes. One we follow all year is the Football Power Index and its “Matchup Predictor.” It’s not perfect, but give a percentage chance of each team winning a particular game. And in this case, it does indeed have some Scarlet and Gray colored glasses on, with OSU favored to beat the Fighting Irish by a 55.4% to 44.6% margin.
Aside from that, ESPN also has its SP+ model and that too favors Ohio State. According to the model run by analytic guru Bill Connelly, the Buckeyes are favored to win the CFP title game, 27.6-21.7 (subscription required).
SP+ RANKINGS AFTER THE SEMIS.
The Big 12 passes the ACC in the averages, and do injuries finally catch up to Notre Dame (like the point spread suggests)?https://t.co/s6LViixMvI
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) January 12, 2025
Now, all the caveats in the world apply here obviously. OSU was favored in every single game it played this year and somehow found a way to lose to a rather pedestrian Michigan team, so it can’t take anyone lightly, the least of which is a Notre Dame squad that has a very stout defense, is coached well, and has one whale of a leader at quarterback, Riley Leonard.
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