After overcoming an early injury, New York Giants edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux flashed at times as a rookie. He recorded just 4.0 sacks but had 18 pressures, 13 QB hits, and 10 knockdowns.
Thibs also showcased his talents in other ways, recording 49 tackles (33 solo, six for a loss), five passes defensed, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and one significant defensive touchdown.
While Thibodeaux wanted more out of himself, he still finished fourth in 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. He also showed why the Giants selected him early in the fourth round and why expectations remain sky-high.
Despite all of that, ESPN projects that Thibodeaux will record just 6.5 sacks in 2023, which would be good for just 39th overall according to their predictive metrics.
It might not feel strong, but this is a bullish projection, with DraftKings setting a line of just 5.75 sacks (and it opened lower) for Thibodeaux. The No. 5 overall pick from last year’s draft got off to a slow start but finished with an 18% pass rush win rate, an above-average rate which was good for 15th among edge defenders. Plus, he plays for coordinator Wink Martindale, who blitzed at the highest rate in the league last season.
Add in the caveat I gave about Hutchinson — that the model probably is underrating top draft picks early in their career — and Thibodeaux has a chance to break out.
Interestingly, ESPN also projects that Giants edge rusher Azeez Ojulari will lead the team with 7.5 sacks (rounded up from 7.3). That would be good for 25th in the league (again, based on projections).
I was a little surprised to see teammate Azeez Ojulari ahead of him, but Ojulari has strong numbers, including eight sacks as a rookie in 2021 and a 21% pass rush win rate last year at edge. He didn’t play enough for that second number to qualify, but would have ranked 12th if he had.
If the pair can remain healthy, that seems like a low number for both Ojulari and Thibodeaux.
Ojulari is an underrated and perhaps overlooked edge rusher — potentially one of the best in the NFC — and Thibodeaux is just scratching the surface of his potential. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale expects Thibodeaux to be a regular at the Pro Bowl.
Frankly, those of us at Giants Wire would take the over on sacks with both Ojulari (7.3) and Thibodeaux (6.5). Each player could realistically reach double-digits.
