The NFL draft is approaching quickly, and the discourse about what the Minnesota Vikings will do at No. 23 is fascinating. According to an ESPN analytical model, the most likely pick for the Vikings at 23rd overall is Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker.
Here is how ESPN describes the model:
The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.
Using historical data is a great way to structure one of these models. The intrigue here is sending the Vikings a quarterback who has a long way to go as a 25-year-old coming off of a torn ACL.
Other players with higher probabilities include (percentages approximated):
