Well, it’s going to be a very interesting Sunday when the College Football Playoff committee unveils the four teams that will be a part of the journey to a national championship.
Why?
Because it’s the most chaos we’ve seen since the start of the playoff system, and there’s going to be legitimate concerns and very reasonable arguments against at least two of the teams that get in no matter what is announced on Sunday.
Michigan and Washington are almost assuredly in as No. 1 and No. 2. Beyond that, the committee will have to choose among Florida State, Texas, Alabama and Georgia. The Seminoles are undefeated but are hobbled on offense with starting quarterback Jordan Travis sidelined by injury.
The other three teams have one-loss, but two of them — Texas and Alabama — are conference champions — a tie-breaker with all things being equal. Georgia was the clear No. 1 team for a few weeks prior to this. Will the Bulldogs really fall below No. 4 after the nail-biter in Atlanta against Alabama in the SEC Championship game?
It’s going to be messy and one of the reasons most folks can’t wait for the start of a 12-team playoff next season. We even got in on the act and tried to predict the final College Football Playoff rankings and which four teams will be a part of the journey to confetti. We also predicted and projected all of the Big Ten bowl games including the New Year’s Six games and the CFP semifinal games.
But we’re not the only ones. All season, ESPN has been plugging data to spit out bleeps and bloops with a dash of unknown algo rhythms to give us percentage chances of teams making the College Football Playoff. And … now that we know the results on the field, here’s what the “Playoff Predictor” says about the four teams that have the best chance of making the CFP.
Let the debating begin in earnest as we unveil which teams ESPN believes will make the playoff based on the ESPN playoff predictor.
7
Georgia Bulldogs (12-1)
CFP chances according to ESPN Playoff Predictor
3%
The narrative
Amazingly enough, despite being in the driver’s seat as the No. 1 team in the CFP rankings and in the committee’s eyes for a few weeks now, Georgia might be on the outside looking in because of the loss to Alabama on Saturday. When there are this many teams with a claim to a playoff spot, not having a conference title is probably going to cost the Bulldogs. It’ll probably go down as the most talented team with the best résumé to not make the College Football Playoff since it all started in 2014.
6
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
CFP chances according to ESPN Playoff Predictor
4%
The narrative
In all reality, Ohio State’s chances of making the playoff went down the drain in the Big House against Michigan last weekend. However, there was still a little hope if things fell the right way on Championship weekend. It wasn’t meant to be, and although the Buckeyes’ only loss is to what will be the No. 1 ranked Wolverines in a close one at their place, there’s no conference title to hold up to the light with other teams.
5
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
CFP chances according to ESPN Playoff Predictor
41%
The narrative
There is a push by many that Alabama should get in. After all, how can you leave out the SEC champion? It’s never happened to a league that has been known as the best in college football for years. But how do you keep three undefeated Power Five teams and a Texas team that has the head-to-head over ‘Bama?
4
Texas Longhorns (12-1)
CFP chances according to ESPN Playoff Predictor
55%
The narrative
Texas had the most impressive win during the championship games of the one-loss teams, at least by way of score and opponent. The Longhorns should be given a nod over Alabama because of the head-to-head win in the early season and a Big 12 conference championship they can boast about. If the Tide get in, so should Texas, right?
3
Florida State Seminoles (13-0)
CFP chances according to ESPN Playoff Predictor
97%
The narrative
There seems to be a major push to keep Florida State out of the CFP because of its quarterback situation with Jordan Travis lost for the year. However, this team still won an ACC conference title against a good team with its third string QB (where have we seen that before) and it has a defense that can play with anyone.
The Seminoles are one of three undefeated Power Five teams. How can they be left out? Will the committee do something controversial and bow to what many in the media are stating? I’ll be the first FSU apologist should it be left out. The results on the field matter.
2
Washington Huskies (13-0)
CFP chances according to ESPN Playoff Predictor
>99%
The narrative
This is where the drama stops. You might as well bump this up to 100% because there’s no way the Huskies are left out of the playoff. They are undefeated and don’t have the same questions with injury like Florida State does. This is most likely your No. 2 team when the playoff rankings are unveiled on Sunday. Will it be Pasadena or New Orleans?
1
Michigan Wolverines (13-0)
CFP chances according to ESPN Playoff Predictor
>99%
The narrative
With Georgia’s loss, Michigan is almost certainly going to be the No. 1 team when we see the CFP rankings on Sunday. The Wolverines have the wins over Ohio State and Penn State and won convincingly in Indy on Saturday over the Iowa. Jim Harbaugh can kick back and relax in his freshly pressed khakis for now knowing his team is probably headed to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl. But who will be the opponent?
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