College football odds and metrics ebb and flow with the results on the field, and it’s no different with Ohio State football and the ESPN FPI matchup predictor we like to check in on every week.
When the ESPN sauce was originally made with some Scarlet and Gray at the beginning of the season, it was a savory one. The Buckeyes enjoyed the better chance of winning against every team on the schedule. As the season wore on, there’s one team that drew closer and closer and finally overtook OSU. We’re sure you know what team that is.
Now, just a couple weeks ahead of playing Michigan, have percentages changed? Especially after the Buckeyes dismantled Michigan State? Ohio State only has a game against Minnesota before the massive one at the Big House, so what does ESPN think of those matchups after the Wolverines disposed of Penn State in Happy Valley?
Here’s how ESPN and its FPI matchup predictor see the percentage chances of winning each of the two remaining games on the Buckeyes schedule ahead of Week 12.
We’ll start by looking at the schedule and results so far, see where OSU is in the FPI rankings, go through what the matchup predictor says about each game, then look at trends from last week to end it all.
Ohio State's ranking in the ESPN FPI model
ESPN FPI Top ten
| Ranking | Team | FPI Metric |
| No. 1 | Michigan | 27.8 |
| No. 2 | Ohio State | 27.2 |
| No. 3 | Oregon Ducks | 24.9 |
| No. 4 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 24.9 |
| No. 5 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 24.5 |
| No. 6 | Georgia Bulldogs | 24.4 |
| No. 7 | Oklahoma Sooners | 22.7 |
| No. 8 | Florida State Seminoles | 22.0 |
| No. 9 | Texas Longhorns | 21.3 |
| No. 10 | Kansas State Wildcats | 20.3 |
Ohio State 2023 schedule and results so far
Ohio State schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Score |
| 09/02 | at Indiana | Win, 23-3 |
| 09/09 | vs. Youngstown State | Win, 35-7 |
| 09/16 | vs. Western Kentucky | Win, 63-10 |
| 09/23 | at Notre Dame | Win, 17-14 |
| 10/07 | vs. Maryland | Win, 37-17 |
| 10/14 | at Purdue | Win, 41-7 |
| 10/21 | vs. Penn State | Win, 20-12 |
| 10/28 | at Wisconsin | Win, 24-10 |
| 11/04 | at Rutgers | Win, 35-16 |
| 11/11 | vs. Michigan State | Win, 38-3 |
NEXT … ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor game win chances
Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.1% (up from 96.7% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 25 at Michigan
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Michigan
Buckeyes Win Probability: 42.6% (down from 45.3% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6
Projected running record: 11-1
NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends
Prediction Trending Summary
How each remaining Ohio State game is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor
| Opponent | Chances of Winning | Chances Last Week | Trend |
| vs. Minnesota | 97.1% | 96.7% | ⇑ |
| at Michigan | 42.6% | 45.3% | ⇓ |
Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.
