The Jaguars were active as ever this offseason, dishing out the two biggest contracts in team history by extending quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen, signing eight free agents and making one trade in March, and drafting nine rookies in April after moving down in the first round and collecting future picks.
Jacksonville’s aggressive approach to retooling its squad followed its second consecutive 9-8 campaign last year. But unlike the season before when the Jaguars made an AFC Divisional round appearance, they were eliminated from postseason action in Week 18, igniting their urgency to tweak their personnel.
However, Jacksonville’s efforts resulted in a C+ offseason grade from ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder, with coaching staff changes, free agency and trade additions and departures, draft picks and contract extensions factoring into his mark for every NFL team.
Walder’s report card rubric “focused on the choices each team made based on the situation it was in at the start of the offseason,” he wrote.
For example, he deemed Chicago’s expected No. 1 overall NFL draft selection of quarterback Caleb Williams in April less influential than the Bears trading for wide receiver Keenan Allen to support their anticipated rookie passer in March.
Beginning his analysis with Jacksonville’s staff shakeup, Walder questioned the team’s firing of defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and retention of offensive coordinator Press Taylor, suggesting he would have considered the opposite moves after the Jaguars ranked No. 26 in expected offensive points added and No. 14 in defensive EPA in 2023.
He didn’t comment on Jacksonville hiring former Atlanta defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen to supplant Caldwell.
Walder called Lawrence’s extension the Jaguars’ “biggest move” of the offseason and expanded on the contracts he and Allen received between April and June.
The most significant moment in Jacksonville’s offseason came last week, though, when the team signed Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract with $142 million guaranteed at signing. Though the $55 million per year number ties Joe Burrow for the most expensive APY, Burrow’s deal was signed a year ago and therefore was more expensive.
Though big money, after adjusting for cap inflation Lawrence’s deal is not among the top 10 contracts in terms of APY over the past decade and is closer in line to Dak Prescott’s deal in 2021, according to historical contract data from OverTheCap. I’m a believer in Lawrence and think signing him now makes sense — the price will go up next year because of cap inflation but also because he’ll likely be coming off a better season.
The team also signed edge rusher Josh Allen to a five-year deal with $76.5 million fully guaranteed, averaging more than $28 million per year. I’m a little wary given that Allen has just one season with 11 sacks or more (17.5 last season) and his pass rush win rate is just average at 16%. I might have been tempted to let him play on the franchise tag in 2024 and see if he can repeat his performance.
Of the roster acquisitions Jacksonville made and the exits it allowed, Walder praised the Jaguars for trading down to take wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. in the draft and expressed distaste about the team releasing former starting cornerback Darious Williams.
Jacksonville picked up a 2024 fifth-round pick, which it used on running back Keilan Robinson, and 2025 third and fourth-rounders by exchanging the No. 17 overall selection with Minnesota for No. 23, where the Jaguars took Thomas, who posted 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in his final season at LSU.
Thomas is expected to replace Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville’s leading receiver in 2023, in the Jaguars’ offense. Ridley signed with AFC South rival Tennessee on a four-year, $92 million deal in free agency.
Williams was cut amid the Jaguars’ defensive scheme change under Nielsen, creating $11.5 million in salary cap space. Jacksonville signed veteran Ronald Darby on a two-year deal worth $4.25 million per season to replace Williams.
Walder also recognized Jacksonville’s signing of former San Francisco defensive lineman Arik Armstead as the team’s attempt to upgrade its rushing defense, and commended the Jaguars for bringing in former Buffalo center Mitch Morse and extending guard Ezra Cleveland on the opposite front, the offensive line.
On offense, the Jaguars lost a key player in wide receiver Calvin Ridley. While a blow, I don’t think I’d fault the Jaguars for not matching the high price. Instead, the team signed Gabe Davis and drafted Thomas to join Christian Kirk. The Thomas selection came after the team made a heist of a trade with the Vikings, moving down six spots in exchange for third-, fourth- and fifth-round picks across 2024 and 2025.
The Jaguars signed defensive tackle Arik Armstead, who is coming off knee surgery, to a deal that included $28 million fully guaranteed. They hope he can shore up their run defense, the weakness of their defense last season, and assist the pass rush. The team also got value in signing center Mitch Morse and re-signing guard Ezra Cleveland, but lost Williams, who is coming off a strong season in which he allowed a better-than-average 1.0 yards per coverage snap, to the Rams in free agency.
Do you agree with Walder’s analysis? Should Jacksonville have received a better or worse grade? Let us know your thoughts via social media at JaguarsWire on Facebook and @TheJaguarsWire on X (formerly known as Twitter).
