Every week during the 2023 college football season, we’ve been keeping tabs on what ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) matchup predictor indicates about Ohio State football’s chances of winning each regular-season game. It has ebbed and flowed throughout the season, and had the Buckeyes as favorites in every game for most of the year.
However, as both OSU and Michigan continued to win, the odds of the Buckeyes beating the Wolverines shrank until the Maize and Blue were finally favored a few weeks ago. Now, with “The Game” on the doorstep, the matchup predictor has updated Ohio State’s chances of winning in Ann Arbor, and we’re here to update you on what the “worldwide leader’s” formula says.
We’ll start by recapping the schedule so far this season, where Ohio State lands in the top 10 of the ESPN FPI rankings, then update you on where the percentage chance of OSU winning has swung this week.
Recapping the schedule and results
Ohio State schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Score |
| 09/02 | at Indiana | Win, 23-3 |
| 09/09 | vs. Youngstown State | Win, 35-7 |
| 09/16 | vs. Western Kentucky | Win, 63-10 |
| 09/23 | at Notre Dame | Win, 17-14 |
| 10/07 | vs. Maryland | Win, 37-17 |
| 10/14 | at Purdue | Win, 41-7 |
| 10/21 | vs. Penn State | Win, 20-12 |
| 10/28 | at Wisconsin | Win, 24-10 |
| 11/04 | at Rutgers | Win, 35-16 |
| 11/11 | vs. Michigan State | Win, 38-3 |
| 11/11 | vs. Minnesota | Win, 37-3 |
Ohio State's ranking in the top 10 of the FPI
ESPN FPI Top ten
| Ranking | Team | FPI Metric |
| No. 1 | Ohio State | 27.5 |
| No. 2 | Michigan | 27.2 |
| No. 3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 25.5 |
| No. 4 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 25.1 |
| No. 5 | Oregon Ducks | 24.9 |
| No. 6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 24.4 |
| No. 7 | Oklahoma Sooners | 22.2 |
| No. 8 | Texas Longhorns | 21.3 |
| No. 9 | Florida State Seminoles | 20.8 |
| No. 10 | LSU Tigers | 20.6 |
Résumé - FPI strength of record top ten
ESPN FPI top 10 strength of record
| Ranking | Team |
| No. 1 | Washington |
| No. 2 | Ohio State |
| No. 3 | Michigan |
| No. 4 | Florida State |
| No. 5 | Georgia |
| No. 6 | Texas |
| No. 7 | Alabama |
| No. 8 | Ole Miss |
| No. 9 | Oregon |
| No. 10 | Louisville |
NEXT … ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor chances vs. Michigan
Nov. 25 at Michigan
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Michigan
Buckeyes Win Probability: 45.0%
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6
Projected running record: 11-1
NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends
ESPN Matchup Predictor Trending Summary for The Game vs. Michigan
How Ohio State’s chances of victory against Michigan is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor
| Opponent | Chances of Winning | Chances Last Week | Trend |
| at Michigan | 45.0% | 42.6% | ⇑ |
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