The Arizona Cardinals begin the 2022 NFL season this weekend with a game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. They are hopeful to improve over last season.
In 2021, they went 11-6, made the playoffs for the first time since 2015 but were blown out in the first round by the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
Entering 2022, they lost pass rusher Chandler Jones, receiver Christian Kirk and running back Chase Edmonds, but added receiver Marquise Brown and re-signed many of their key players from last season.
They are confident they can be good again, although there isn’t a ton of optimism for the team.
However, if we look at ESPN’s FPI probability each week for the Cardinals to win their individual games, you will be surprised to see they are expected to be good. Based on the most likely outcome of each game, per the football power index, the Cardinals could win at many as 13 games in the regular season.
Check out each game below.
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Week 1: Chiefs at Cardinals
FPI probability: 52.4% Cardinals win
The Cardinals are underdogs in the Week 1 home matchup against the Chiefs, but FPI shows it is more likely they win than lose.
Likely record, per FPI: 1-0
Week 2: Cardinals at Raiders
FPI probability: 51.3% Cardinals win
The Raiders loaded up their defense and added receiver Davante Adams, which should make their offense lethal. However, the Cardinals are given the more likely chance of winning.
Likely record, per FPI: 2-0
Week 3: Rams at Cardinals
FPI probability: 50% Rams win
This isn’t exactly a coin flip. There is a 0.4% chance of a tie and a 49.6% chance the Cardinals win. But this is more likely a Rams win than a Cardinals win.
Likely record, per FPI: 2-1
Week 4: Cardinals at Panthers
FPI probability: 66% Cardinals win
The Cardinals haven’t beaten the Panthers since 2013 but Carolina is not expected to be good.
Likely record, per FPI: 3-1
Week 5: Eagles at Cardinals
FPI probability: 60% Cardinals win
The Eagles are improved with receiver A.J. Brown and the Cardinals won’t yet have DeAndre Hopkins back, but Arizona is given a likely win.
Likely record, per FPI: 4-1
Week 6: Cardinals at Seahawks
FPI probability: 58.9% Cardinals win
The Cardinals love winning in Seattle. This isn’t as likely a win as the one at home against the Eagles, but it is against Geno Smith.
Likely record, per FPI: 5-1
Week 7: Saints at Cardinals
FPI probability: 61.3% Cardinals win
This will be the return of Hopkins against the Saints in a Thursday night prime-time matchup. FPI likes the Cardinals to win.
Likely record, per FPI: 6-1
Week 8: Cardinals at Vikings
FPI probability: 53.1% Vikings win
The Cardinals go on the road after their mini-bye. This is only the second likely loss of the season for the Cardinals and first on the road.
Likely record, per FPI: 6-2
Week 9: Seahawks at Cardinals
FPI probability: 67.1% Cardinals win
So far this season, it is the highest likelihood of a win for the Cardinals.
Likely record, per FPI: 7-2
Week 10: Cardinals at Rams
FPI probability: 60.9% Rams win
This gives the Rams a likely season sweep over the Cardinals.
Likely record, per FPI: 7-3
Week 11: 49ers at Cardinals in Mexico City
FPI probability: 57.6% Cardinals win
The Cardinals play a home game in Mexico but this is still a likely win for Arizona against Trey Lance and the 49ers.
Likely record, per FPI: 8-3
Week 12: Chargers at Cardinals
FPI probability: 51.3% Cardinals win
This will be a tough matchup but the Cardinals apparently have the slight edge right before their bye week.
Likely record, per FPI: 9-3
Week 14: Patriots at Cardinals
FPI probability: 56.8% Cardinals win
After the bye, the Cardinals host the Patriots on Monday night. Mac Jones vs. Kyler Murray, with the edge being given to Murray and the Cardinals.
Likely record, per FPI: 10-3
Week 15: Cardinals at Broncos
FPI probability: 55.1% Broncos win
The Cardinals face Russell Wilson on the road but they are likely to suffer their first loss of the season against the vaunted AFC West.
Likely record, per FPI: 10-4
Week 16: Buccaneers at Cardinals
FPI probability: 53.2% Cardinals win
Tom Brady and the Bucs come to Arizona to play Christmas night. The Cardinals have the edge.
Likely record, per FPI: 11-4
Week 17: Cardinals at Falcons
FPI probability: 60.2% Cardinals win
The Cardinals’ last trip to the East Coast is against a Falcons team that we don’t know how good they will be. The Cardinals, though, are given the edge in probability.
Likely record, per FPI: 12-4
Week 17: Cardinals at 49ers
FPI probability: 53.2% Cardinals win
Despite closing out the season with two road games, the Cardinals are given the edge in the finale, giving them a likely season sweep over the 49ers.
Likely record, per FPI: 13-4
