Manchester City have won 14 of their past 15 games which, given the general sense that they are not quite firing, says a lot about both their quality and expectations. Perhaps Tuesday’s 6-2 FA Cup victory at Luton was the beginning of an upturn; if it was, it is much needed before a March that will probably define their season. And if Erling Haaland’s five goals indicate that he is back in peak scoring form that will also be very welcome given the disorienting sense that City have become reliant upon him.
City’s run has been very odd. Those 15 games, starting after the draw with Crystal Palace in December, took in fixtures in the Club World Cup, the FA Cup and the first leg of the Champions League last 16 as well as nine Premier League games, none of them against sides that started the day in the top eight. Given Urawa Red Diamonds, Fluminense and FC Copenhagen probably wouldn’t make it into the top eight of the Premier League, it is a remarkably gentle run of fixtures in the middle of the season.
The sense has been of a phoney war, of waiting and preparing for the real business – the Manchester derby at home on Sunday, followed by a trip to Liverpool, then home games against Arsenal and Villa – to begin. (A potentially tricky trip to Brighton has been postponed because of an FA Cup quarter-final against Newcastle, which also has the capacity to be draining.)
There is an irony here in that a Pep Guardiola side seem to have become reliant on their centre-forward. In a season in which Arsenal have looked like they needed a goalscorer to nick points when they are not playing well, City, who had been the epitome of a team that relied on process rather than individual excellence, have shown the value of a striker with the capacity to seize on a half chance. But there is equally a sense that the problems Haaland is solving would not exist were it not for him.
Take the past four league games. Against Everton, City were frustrated and conceded a handful of opportunities for a breakaway that a more confident centre-forward than Dominic Calvert-Lewin might have capitalised on. Although City were way ahead on xG, Everton seemed to be holding out relatively comfortably when Haaland lashed in a loose ball from a corner after 71 minutes. He added a second 14 minutes later.
Against Chelsea, as in the 4-4 draw at Stamford Bridge, City conceded chances to relatively straightforward balls played in behind them. What Everton had not been able to turn into chances, Raheem Sterling and Nicolas Jackson did, taking one in the first half and drawing an exceptional save from Ederson in the second. Late pressure eventually told with Rodri’s equaliser but, although City again won the xG, a more ruthless pairing might have had Chelsea out of sight.
During the 1-0 win over Brentford, there was real frustration from the crowd at the Etihad Stadium as City seemed unable to find their usual fluency, although the xG had them winning by about 3-0. Given they lost both games against Brentford last season, perhaps that is achievement enough, but still, it took a Haaland goal in the final 20 minutes to win it. Then against Bournemouth, City were much better in the first half, scoring as Phil Foden knocked in the rebound from a Haaland effort, but far less dominant after the break.
Which, as ever with a prolific striker, raises the question of whether he is getting his side out of jail, or whether there is something about the way he plays that gets them into trouble. With Haaland, City have traded a prolific striker for an auxiliary midfielder and that, necessarily, gives them less control, fewer passing options, which in turn reduces their fluency.
And Haaland, despite going into the weekend top of the Premier League goalscoring charts on 17, has not been in the form of last season – although scoring five in a Cup game is a pretty convincing argument that an uptick has begun. He stands 543rd of 551 Premier League players in the ranking of non-penalty goals minus xG, which can be taken as a rough measure of goalscoring efficiency; he is, in other words, missing a lot of chances and he still hasn’t scored a header since the last Manchester derby in October.
It’s not just about Haaland, obviously. John Stones and Kevin De Bruyne have also had lengthy spells out and are just returning to peak form and fitness. Jack Grealish, after his stellar performances last season, has barely figured this, largely because of injury. None of Manuel Akanji, Rúben Dias or Julián Álvarez have been at their best. And yet, counterintuitively for a Guardiola side, it feels mainly about Haaland. It doesn’t take much for an edgy 1-0 to become a professional 2-0.
But it’s not just his goalscoring. Haaland likes the ball played quickly in front of him. It’s how four of his five goals at Luton came about. De Bruyne is extremely adept at playing those passes. But it has meant a modification for City. The more direct they are, the less time they have to set themselves to head off a potential counter – the 15 passes to instigate an attack Guardiola once spoke of – which is why they have begun to look vulnerable again to balls played in behind their defensive line. They have conceded six times to fast breaks this season, more than in any previous season under Guardiola, and more than any Premier League club bar Crystal Palace.
This is a world of interlocking paradoxes. If Guardiola sides have had a vulnerability, it has always been to balls played quickly behind them, and yet the shift away from pure guardiolismo to an approach with a more traditional centre-forward has somehow made that flaw worse.
Haaland remains both solution and problem. The balance is not quite right. And that’s why doubts remain. They are doubts the vast majority of clubs would love to have, doubts rooted in comparison with the all-conquering sides of the past three years. But, as they head into a crucial month, City look less convincing than a team that have won 14 of their last 15 games perhaps should.
