Manchester United defeated Charlton 3-0 in the quarter-final of the League Cup on Tuesday and only three players who started that game - Diogo Dalot, Antony and Lisandro Martinez - are likely to line up in the Manchester derby.
United progressed to the semi-final of the League Cup with that comfortable victory and their possible opponents ahead of the draw for that double-legged tie were Newcastle, who had already progressed, Southampton or Manchester City, and Nottingham Forest or Wolves. Erik ten Hag was hoping for Southampton or Forest in the next round, although that seemed highly unlikely
Yet it actually happened. City were the favourites to win the competition but they were stunned on the South Coast on Wednesday. Saints defeated City 2-0 and that result was manager Nathan Jones' third win in charge of the club.
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Southampton are rooted at the bottom of the Premier League. They were given no chance against the reigning Premier League champions and yet they were able to record an unlikely win, which they deserved against a poor City side.
City have an embarrassment of riches and a bench of players that could start for most elite clubs in Europe, but their performance at St. Mary's was dire and one of the worst during Pep Guardiola's six-and-a-half-year spell in charge.
Guardiola has persisted with tweaking the formation this season and his team have started to feel like they're in transition. Some in the dressing room, like Bernardo Silva, don't want to be there and the warning signs have been flashing red.
The pressure on Guardiola to get it right again has been exacerbated by Arsenal setting the pace in the top flight and the recent progress which United have made in the Premier League table.
City were not convincing in a 1-0 win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last week and they were bailed out of that game thanks to Guardiola's changes, which were necessary after Plan A and Plan B failed.
Against Southampton, the tactics failed again, but the lack of application from his players must have been of particular concern for Guardiola, who warned his side will have 'no chance' in the derby if they reproduce a performance of that standard.
Guardiola said: "Of course, if we perform in this way [vs United] we don't have a chance. I know the moment they have. Many years they're looking forward to stay in this position. We know exactly what to do to play better and we're going to try to do it.
"The best team won. They were better. We had a bad night, they played good. We had a bad start. They performed well. We have to deserve it. I want to deserve it and today was not the case. Southampton deserve to be in the semi-final of this competition.
"It was a bad night. I know them quite well. We didn't get close to what we are. After three days against Chelsea and today, the difference. Nothing to say. They were better, we congratulate them and accept it."
City have a day less to prepare for Saturday's match than United and Guardiola also started as many as six players, who could line up from kick-off at Old Trafford, against Southampton. Ten Hag started three against Charlton in comparison.
That means both side's preparation for the match must favour United, who are genuinely confident approaching the derby for the first time in years after going seven games undefeated through the festive period and beyond.
Of course, context is required and that run has been against relatively poor opposition, but the manner of the performances have been encouraging, whilst simultaneously the other side of Manchester, City are beginning to look vulnerable.
That is the mood among both sets of supporters and perhaps that's shared in dressing rooms. Ilkay Gundogan, speaking after the Southampton defeat, said United are 'stronger than ever' and that Ten Hag has the team playing 'great football'.
Guardiola has always shown respect to United in the Manchester derby, but he's perhaps never been fearful of the matches since his first season in charge. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer had an excellent record against him but the Norwegian was never feared.
Ten Hag is different and Guardiola should be especially fearful of the derby after his side's midweek defeat.
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