Erik ten Hag was in attendance at Selhurst Park on Sunday as he watched his new Manchester United side fall to a lacklustre 1-0 defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace.
It was a fitting end to a forgettable campaign for United who finished the season with their lowest points total in a Premier League season, sneaking a spot in the Europa League thanks only to Brighton ’s victory over West Ham.
The defeat was a reminder of the size of the task on Ten Hag’s hands, and work for him will properly start on 27 June which is when Man Utd players will begin to return for pre-season.
Speaking to the club’s in-house media, Ten Hag confirmed the date of their return to Carrington, stating: “First, we have a break. We will then start pre-season on 27 June and I will get a few of the squad and individual players (coming in).”
The 52-year-old also spoke about wanting to “renew certain positions” in the squad, though he did reference United’s second-place finish from 2020-21 as proof of the current group’s potential.
“In certain positions, we want to renew the squad, but as I said, one year ago, this squad was second in the league, so there is potential.”
This comment from the new United boss should raise some concern. Because although the Reds did secure a top-two finish last season, there’s plenty of evidence to indicate that they were rather fortunate to do so.
This is a point captured by looking at their Expected Points (xP) total from last season. In basic terms, xP indicates how many points a team should have taken from a game based on the scoring opportunities that they both created and conceded. It tends to be a better measurement of performances beyond just who scored more goals.
An accumulation of the same over the course of the season can highlight where a team should have finished based on the level of their performances. Notably United finished with an xP of 65.64 according to Understat last season. That actually ranked fourth across the division rather than second.
Furthermore, United benefitted from a large number of penalties (11) last season - only Leicester City were awarded more. And it’s telling that in terms of Expected Goals (xG), with penalties removed for all sides, United’s attack fell to only the sixth-best.
While performance metrics such as xP still remain equivocal and not widely accepted in the wider football community, it’s difficult to ignore the same metrics did suggest there could be a huge drop in United’s points return this season.
The same was pretty much ignored though. Last summer, when asked about his side’s prospects of competing for the title, then-manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer said: “Well we have gradually closed the gaps. Nothing is beyond these players, I wouldn’t put (winning) it past them.”
Despite going into this campaign with a much stronger squad than last season after adding the likes of Jadon Sancho, Raphael Varane and Cristiano Ronaldo, United ultimately finished 35 points behind champions Manchester City and much closer to where their xP indicated they should have finished last season.
While Ten Hag would have undoubtedly undertaken a thorough review of the United squad, he must be careful to not overvalue what the current group is capable of based on their rather fortunate achievements of last season.
