Turkey’s opposition is accusing Europe of abandoning those fighting to keep democracy alive, as European leaders and the EU offer only muted criticism over the jailing of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the crackdown on protests.
Rubber bullets, water cannons, and mass arrests continue to meet demonstrators protesting the detention of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival. Yet, the EU is treading cautiously. "The arrest of the mayor is deeply concerning. As a member of the Council of Europe and an EU candidate country, Turkey must uphold democratic rights," said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
EU and UK reactions
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, once a human rights lawyer, has so far remained silent on İmamoğlu’s arrest. Only one of his aides issued a muted statement, saying the UK expects Turkey’s judicial process to be respected.
Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrest
Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition CHP party, has lashed out at Europe’s response. "Those who champion democracy at home but empower autocracy in Turkey — those who say, ‘We’ll give the money so the Syrians are taken care of’ — will know this government will change next year. When all is said and done, Turkey will remember the silence of its friends more than the voices of its enemies," Özel told supporters.
The UK and EU rely on Turkey to act as Europe’s gatekeeper, hosting millions of Syrian refugees in exchange for billions of euros in aid.
Erdoğan’s two-decade grip on power, having repeatedly defeated the opposition at the polls, has left European leaders feeling powerless. "The consensus is that this is something we cannot change, something we cannot influence from outside. Europeans have mistakenly concluded they have no leverage over Turkey," says Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
But Aydıntaşbaş insists Europe still has powerful tools at its disposal. "Of course, Europeans have had — and still have — enormous leverage, particularly economic leverage, especially through Turkey’s EU accession process. But they simply don’t want to push."
Erdoğan’s importance to Europe is only growing, as European leaders scramble to strengthen their defences against a resurgent Russia and an unreliable United States. With NATO’s second-largest army, Turkey is increasingly seen as critical to Europe’s security.
"Turkey is more important than ever in this era of brutal geopolitical realities; it stands between two wars. President Erdoğan has been masterful in playing the West off against Russia, and the US against Europe. He has become an indispensable middle power — not exactly an ally, but certainly not someone you want to cross," Aydıntaşbaş explains.
"Europeans are interested in bringing Turkey closer into European defence plans," she adds. "The Americans, too, see Turkey as essential to stabilising Syria. Western countries simply don’t want to risk pushing Erdoğan away."
Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayor
EU and Turkey
Even before Europe’s lukewarm reaction to İmamoğlu’s arrest and the crackdown on protests, Turkey’s opposition had accused the EU of abandoning Turkish democracy. Local human rights groups, still battling to defend civil liberties, claim the EU has quietly been cutting its funding since Erdoğan’s election victory in 2023.
"There’s a visible hesitation among international donors when it comes to Turkey," warns Sinan Gökçen, Turkey representative for the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders.
"When it comes to bilateral or intergovernmental funding, the refugee deal with the EU remains central to Turkey’s relations with Europe. No one wants to upset that. In fact, no one wants to risk provoking Turkey," Gökçen adds.
Turkey’s opposition, however, shows no such restraint. As many as two million people took to the streets of Istanbul last Saturday to protest against Erdoğan and İmamoğlu’s arrest. CHP Deputy Chairman İlhan Uzgel says that with Turkish democracy at breaking point, he is dismayed by Europe’s silence — but remains confident in the people’s resolve.
"We are losing our democracy. Every other day, a businessperson, a trade unionist, a student, a journalist, a doctor, an ordinary citizen, or an academic is taken into custody. We are facing our authoritarian leader alone," Uzgel declared.
The CHP has vowed to continue mobilising mass protests across the country, stepping up its resistance. With Erdoğan accusing the opposition of treason and rebellion, further mass arrests are expected, along with legal moves against the party itself. Whatever the outcome of the battle for Turkey’s democracy, Europe’s leaders seem destined to be remembered as bystanders.
