The kingdom is expected to record about 100,000 new Covid-19 cases per day following the Songkran holiday, according to Dr Prasit Watanapa, dean of Siriraj Hospital's medical school under Mahidol University.
According to government figures, 50–60% of Covid-19 patients who died in the past 30 days were unvaccinated, while 30% received a second dose more than three months before and 5–10% had been inoculated with a single dose.
Dr Prasit said most of those deaths were either people who weren't fully vaccinated or weren't vaccinated at all.
Fully vaccinated means two doses plus a booster shot, he said. Some 85-90% of those who died were members of vulnerable groups such as the elderly and people with underlying health conditions, he said.
The rise in fatalities comes as the authorities renew their campaign urging people to get fully vaccinated, which began early last month.
The campaign was set up to curb an expected surge in caseloads from people returning home for the Songkran holiday this week.
According to Dr Prasit, more than 1 million people aged 60 and over have not been vaccinated.
"The message is: Don't think one can be safe from the virus by staying at home. The virus can come knocking on your door during the festival when children and grandchildren come for a visit," he said.
Dr Prasit said that before Covid-19 could be declared an endemic, fatalities must be brought down to 0.1% or less of all infection cases. If 20,000 people get infected a day, there should be no more than 20 deaths, he said.
The current fatality rate accounts for 3–4 times the acceptable 0.1%, he said, adding daily caseloads could be between 50,000 and 100,000 after the Songkran festival.
It is essential that authorities keep the fatalities below 200 a day and the number of hospitalisations manageable to prevent medical capacity from being overwhelmed, he noted.
Meanwhile, the XE coronavirus strain may not be spreading as fast as many previously feared, according to the Center for Medical Genomics (CMG) at Ramathibodi Hospital.
Citing United Kingdom infection data from January to last month, the CMG said cases only grew from 600 to 736. The XE variant is a recombinant virus of two sublineages of the Omicron variant, BA.1 and BA.2.
Early this month, the Public Health Ministry played down concerns raised by the detection of the first case of the XE Covid-19 strain in the country, saying there is no need to panic as it is not believed to result in as many complications as some previous mutations.
The head of the CMG, which diagnosed the patient found with the strain, said the individual had already made a full recovery.
