It won’t be the same after this. Well, that’s the way of the world. The people don’t always get what they want, but they do get what they pay for, and there is enough economic demand for an expanded College Football Playoff to bring it to fruition.
As soon as 2024, the CFP will feature 12 teams. That means if undefeated Ohio State plays undefeated Michigan, as they will Saturday, it will be winner-take-very-little. For most of the 20th century, these kinds of showdowns were the best drama in sports, the stakes both enormous and clearly defined. Conference championship games and a four-team playoff diluted them a bit. But when the CFP goes to 12 teams, 11–0 Michigan and 11–0 Ohio State will really just be elbowing each other for a place in line.
Most college football fans seem happy about this. The idea of a 12-team playoff, with some games at campus stadiums, excites them, and understandably so. We’ll see whether the reality is as exciting. The best teams will effectively clinch spots in October; the best programs will make the Playoff pretty much every season, even in down years; and there will be unintended and unforeseen consequences, as there always are.
We can argue about whether it will be better or worse, but we can also agree it will be different. College football has always been built on rivalries, and Michigan–Ohio State was as good as there was. Maybe Alabama–Auburn featured a little more hatred. Maybe Notre Dame–USC was more glamorous. For a long stretch, Florida State–Miami, and then Florida State–Florida, had a bigger annual impact on the national title. Army–Navy is special in a way that no other rivalry can replicate. But Ohio State–Michigan did the best job of capturing the sport’s appeal. The Game was regional and national—a personal feud that drew in casual fans. It matched two programs that are essentially historical equals and yet very different.
There was nothing else in sports quite like it. Think about all the hype a few months ago about North Carolina and Duke’s meeting in the Final Four for the first time. In the 1970s, almost every Michigan–Ohio State game felt that big.
Carlos Osorio/AP
Those days are ending. Ohio State–Michigan will still feature the pageantry, the familiar helmets, the script “Ohio” and the block “M,” the famous fight songs, and a beautiful and unhealthy degree of loathing. It will be a great rivalry, just as Duke-UNC is a great rivalry.
But it won’t be the same.
Two great teams playing for seeding, or the right to host a Playoff game, is just not as compelling as a national-title elimination game. There will probably be Big Ten titles on the line, but a) just a division title, b) with the Big Ten stretching from New Jersey to Los Angeles, will feel more like a conglomerate than a conference, and c) conference titles, which used to be a benchmark, have already diminished in importance. With a 12-team playoff, winning the Big Ten could be like winning the NFC North: a nice accomplishment, but mostly because it helps with playoff seeding.
For most Michigan or Ohio State fans, the mere mention of a calendar year evokes a memory of that year’s game. Some were more memorable and meaningful than others, of course. But a quick look at some of the most famous clashes should show you what is ending.
In 2006, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan were both undefeated. Ohio State won, 42–39, and went to the national title game. With a 12-team playoff, that game is just for seeding. Michigan, which fell to No. 3 in the polls, probably wouldn’t even lose a home playoff game. In 1996, Michigan—a 17-point underdog—stunned undefeated Ohio State in Columbus, ruining the Buckeyes’ national title hopes. Ohio State fell to No. 4 in the country. Michigan rose to No. 15—still not good enough, probably, for a 12-team playoff. With an expanded Playoff, the consequences would have been minimal, if there were any at all.
There is absolutely a big tradeoff coming. Many—probably most—college football fans will say today that it’s worth it. A lot of Ohio State and Michigan fans would, too. But what is an acceptable reward for diminishing your favorite part of your favorite sport?
The great thing about college football rivalries was not just the games themselves; it is the anticipation. It is quite possible the loser of this week’s game will make the Playoff, but it’s unlikely. Michigan and Ohio State fans are on edge this week, because they know the winners move on, and the losers cross their fingers. With a 12-team playoff, this week’s game becomes Ravens-Steelers in Week 17.
There is no going back. Ohio State coach Ryan Day and Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh are both in favor of the expanded Playoff. Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel is on the CFP selection committee, and Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith used to be on it. They all see where the sport is heading and they have embraced it. But Michigan and Ohio State fans should take a moment to appreciate the feeling that The Game gives them this week.
They will miss it.
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