Teachers are preparing to target Rishi Sunak’s make-or-break Tory conference speech with strike action this autumn, amid growing cabinet support for a compromise to end months of public sector walkouts.
Should ministers fail to support a deal that would hand teachers a 6.5% increase this year, all major teaching unions in England are increasingly confident that their members will back more strikes when the new school year begins.
The Observer understands that, such is the anger at the impasse, senior teaching union figures want to target the Tory conference – and Sunak’s keynote speech in particular. This year’s conference is seen as crucial, effectively marking the beginning of the general election run-in. Thousands of teachers would also be mobilised to protest at the Manchester gathering.
“What you would see, if the government hasn’t come back to the negotiating table despite this huge crisis, is a day of coordinated action across schools by all of the unions,” said a senior union source.
“It could well be during the Tory conference and the day of the prime minister’s speech for maximum publicity. It would show parents that this really is not a deliberate act of sabotaging our schools. This is about sending out a message, at key points, that if we aren’t fighting for education, who is going to?”
The issue of teachers’ pay was coming to a head this weekend, with a compromise deal emerging. It would see teachers handed the 6.5% increase recommended by the independent pay review body. The government would stump up about 3% of the increase, with schools expected to contribute the remaining 3.5% from their existing budgets. Some union chiefs fear that even if ministers do agree the 6.5% increase, they will fail to fund it properly.
Whitehall sources suggested that Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, supports a compromise, which would end school disruption. But No 10 and the Treasury are said to be more hesitant, concerned it would fuel inflation. Other cabinet ministers in big departments are also said to be keen on similar deals that would finally end other public sector disputes.
Confronted about the teachers’ pay talks on Saturday, Sunak said awarding unaffordable pay rises would be “short-sighted”, as they could increase inflation. He said the government would offer increases that considered “fairness, affordability and responsibility”. He is expected to make a decision imminently, but insisted none had yet been made.
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows that more of the public support striking teachers than oppose them, but by a narrow margin: 48% back them, and 43% disagree. Support is highest for striking nurses, at 62%. Labour’s lead over the Tories stands at 15 points.
Kevin Courtney, joint general secretary of the National Education Union (NEU), confirmed his union was thinking of striking during the Tory party conference in October: “For the NEU we would plan on striking during the Conservative conference in early October and calling on parents, teachers and support staff to mount a huge demonstration in Manchester,” he said.
If all the main unions were to strike together then almost all of the 23,000 schools in England would have to close – hugely increasing the pressure on the government. Courtney said signs the government might not agree to give teachers a pay rise in line with the recommendations of the official pay review body would “significantly fuel the anger”.
Sunak and Keegan have previously said that they would take their cue from the pay review bodies, but in recent weeks, with inflation refusing to come down as quickly as expected, they have indicated they may offer less. Courtney said that the government was failing to address a recruitment crisis which had seen tens of thousands of teachers leave the profession.
The Department for Education said: “We hugely value the work of teachers. Schools are receiving significant additional funding as part of the extra £2bn of investment we are providing for both 2023/24 and 2024/25, which will take school funding to its highest level in history next year, as measured by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
“As part of the normal process, the independent school teachers’ review body has submitted its recommendations to government on teacher pay for 2023-24. We will be considering the recommendations and will publish our response in the usual way.”
