There is still one last remaining tango in Paris for both South Africa and England. The Springboks now have a delicious rendezvous with New Zealand in Saturday’s final, a showdown with all the ingredients to be a classic. England, meanwhile, have the less thrilling prospect of a “bronze final” against Argentina on Friday night, the rugby equivalent of a lukewarm kebab on the way home.
The stark contrast further underlines the fine margins involved at the highest level. England led on Saturday night for more than three-quarters of a compelling match and delivered their most rousingly committed performance for four years. Against most opposition it would have been sufficient but finishing off this multiheaded Springbok hydra continues to be easier said than done.
If it sometimes feels cliched to keep referencing South Africa’s “Bomb Squad”, it was their bench who once again left English hearts in pieces on the floor. Ox Nché, as his name suggests, is a formidable scrum adversary and the replacement prop’s second-half demolition job on Kyle Sinckler ultimately proved every bit as crucial as Handré Pollard’s nerveless, match-clinching 78th-minute penalty from close to halfway.
Whether or not the last penalty decision was entirely clearcut mattered less than the picture already lodged in the consciousness of Ben O’Keeffe, the referee: an increasingly dominant green-shirted pack with an edge over their toiling adversaries. Fair play, too, to Pollard who initially missed out on selection for this tournament through injury. As with Morné Steyn against the British & Irish Lions in both 2009 and 2021, there was never the slightest sense he was going to miss.
It was also a painfully familiar movie in other ways. South Africa, by their standards, were poor in the first half, discomforted by the rain, England’s kick-to-regather excellence and the collective resolve oozing from the opposition. The Boks, though, have a uniquely well-stocked toolbox for such emergencies. Nché, a lover of chocolate cake and a firm believer that “salads don’t win scrums”, was just one of several “pine riders” to make a gamechanging impact.
Not far behind were Vincent Koch, the try-scoring RG Snyman, Faf de Klerk and Pollard, none of whom started the match. England would love to replicate that sort of depth but a number of their senior players are now entering the final days of their Test careers. Who will replace Courtney Lawes, Dan Cole, Joe Marler, Ben Youngs, Danny Care and Jonny May, outstanding servants over many years? Not to mention Manu Tuilagi, Billy and Mako Vunipola, Sinckler, Elliot Daly and Jamie George, all unlikely to make the next World Cup in Australia in 2027.
Add the rising number of players relocating to France’s Top 14 – Joe Marchant, Henry Arundell and David Ribbans – and a slight end-of-an-era feel is hard to avoid. It makes the medium-term challenge of overtaking sides like South Africa that little bit tougher, particularly in key positions such as prop and centre where the Boks remain so blessed.
Something else also has to be acknowledged within English rugby: not all games resemble Saturday’s rain-sodden slugfest. For all the positives of the performance – how good was Owen Farrell’s drop goal that put his side 15-6 up with under half an hour remaining? – they barely looked like scoring a try and could not muster a last-quarter gear change when one was clearly needed. A fit Marcus Smith might have helped – and how England could also have done with a fit, firing Luke Cowan-Dickie – but it is a relative debate. The best in the world, as the two finalists have proved, have an array of different threats dependent on the situation.
Steve Borthwick, the man in charge of the rebuild, is currently prioritising the third-place playoff against the Pumas but hardly needs telling that more flexibility is required when plan A begins to falter. “What you have got to be is tactically smart and adaptable. I credit South Africa for how they found a way to get a result having been down on the scoreboard,” he said. “They are the No 1 side in the world for a reason.”
End of the road
A number of England’s starting XV against South Africa are set to end their international careers after the bronze medal match against Argentina. Courtney Lawes, Joe Marler, Dan Cole, Courtney Lawes and Jonny May are in that category, Manu Tuilagi too, and, of the replacements, Danny Care. Of the 10 players who were not in the matchday squad, Ben Youngs – England’s most capped men’s player – will surely call time after what should be a swansong against Argentina. Jack Willis, Joe Marchant and David Ribbans will, as things stand, be unavailable for the Six Nations having moved abroad.
Question marks
There are a host of players the wrong side of 30 and while they may continue their England careers into the 2024 Six Nations, it is unclear if they will make it to the 2027 World Cup. Jamie George, Elliot Daly, Billy Vunipola, George Ford and Kyle Sinckler are in that number, as is the captain Owen Farrell. It seems inconceivable that Farrell will not captain England into next year’s Six Nations but there will come a point where the question marks over his place in the side that are rarely far from the surface will loom larger. Borthwick may be tempted to install Marcus Smith as his No 1 fly-half sooner rather than later.
The future
Borthwick was quick to point out after the match that England had seven players in the matchday 23 who are 25 or under. He can also add Smith and Henry Arundell to the list which already includes George Martin, Tom Curry, Ben Earl, Freddie Steward, Ollie Lawrence, Ollie Chessum and Theo Dan. Jack van Poortvliet will come back into the reckoning and Borthwick would do well to blood youngsters such as Chandler Cunningham-South, Tom Pearson and Dan Kelly at the earliest opportunity. Gerard Meagher
For all involved with England, either way, this near miss will sting for a while. When will they next come this close to a World Cup final? Had they not wavered in those pivotal late lineouts and scrums, might they have generated sufficient momentum to drag down New Zealand? As the admirable Cole admitted: “It’s one of those where for the rest of your life you’ll think: ‘What if?’”
Instead there is now certain to be a ninth southern-hemisphere world champion in 10 editions of this tournament. South Africa have occasionally ridden their luck in seeing off both France and England by a solitary point but their ability to rise to the big occasion has been a credit to both their players and their coaching staff. If Rassie Erasmus’s half-time team talk was nothing extraordinary – “He just said: ‘We have to man up and start performing’,” revealed the lock Franco Mostert – the ruthlessness of the decisions to replace the toiling Manie Libbok and then Eben Etzebeth was spectacularly rewarded.
On the flip side, an ageing Bok pack is displaying some wear and tear in places and New Zealand could well be the fresher of the two teams. Things have also moved on, as England have shown, since the All Blacks suffered a record hammering to their old rivals at Twickenham in August. A one-sided final feels distinctly unlikely.
The winning nation, whatever happens, will be breaking new ground as the first country to lift the Webb Ellis Cup four times. England, now empty-handed for more than 20 years, have at least gone some way to restoring the faith of their supporters after two difficult years. If they are to prosper in 2027, though, they need to unearth a homegrown Ox or two.
