It is now 54 years since Tony O’Reilly, briefly back on loan from the executive world, turned up at Twickenham in a chauffeur-driven Rolls-Royce to play for Ireland. At no other time in rugby history, though, has an Irish squad cruised more smoothly into south-west London, nor been more widely tipped to accelerate away from an England team currently positioned several rows behind them on the grid.
The pre-match stats certainly hint at a Max Verstappen-esque procession: Ireland are chasing their fifth straight Test victory in this fixture and have won all three of their previous championship games by 21 points, 36 points and 24 points respectively. In their past 25 Tests they have lost just twice (to New Zealand, on both occasions). Aside from their agonising one-point defeat to the All Blacks in the World Cup quarter-final, they have been sweeping all before them.
Back-to-back grand slams, a feat not achieved since France did the double in 1998, would be further testament to their class, unless either England or Scotland (in Dublin next week) can lob some kind of spanner into the green machine. It tends to be easier said than done but, equally, England have reached the stage where they badly need to deliver a performance that restores a little public faith.
Even within the England camp there is open acceptance there can be no repeat of the myriad handling errors and turnovers which eroded their belief against the Scots at Murrayfield. Raining on Ireland’s parade would be the perfect response but, in truth, England are also craving something more touchy-feely: the renewed pride of their supporters and the rosy inner glow that comes with playing to their full potential.
Getting the crowd roaring early and requiring Ireland to play an unfamiliar game of catchup would clearly help. Keeping 15 men on the field for a change in this fixture is another prerequisite. Remarkably England have had a player sent off – Billy Vunipola, Freddie Steward and Charlie Ewels respectively – in each of the past three Tests between these sides and lost by 13, 17 and 19 points. Even when they are not at their best, the Irish keep the scoreboard ticking over and can be relied upon for at least a couple of tries.
In almost all those contests, though, England have at least shown the necessary stubbornness that will again be required by the bucket-load. Despite Ewels’ dismissal after only 82 seconds in 2022, they were still level in the final quarter and forced Ireland into conceding five penalties and a free-kick at the scrums. A year ago in Dublin they were only 10-9 down after 60 minutes before Ireland’s numerical advantage told eventually.
Factor in the lineout problems the Irish had against Wales and it is possible, if you squint hard enough into the late winter sun, to construct a case for England making life more awkward than many anticipate. Kick the ball off the field, back their bolstered lineout with Ollie Chessum, George Martin and Maro Itoje to pose Ireland the Twickenham equivalent of the three peaks challenge and squeeze Andrew Porter’s side of the scrum, and Ireland will have to problem solve for almost the first time in the tournament. “Ireland haven’t lost that many games so you look closely at the games that have been tight,” said Steve Borthwick. The digested read? Stop Ireland at source or pay the inevitable price.
Even then, though, they still have to crack the cohesive code upon which Andy Farrell’s Ireland are based. As Dan Cole observed on his For The Love of Rugby podcast this week – even urbane tighthead props are busy building their digital brands these days – Ireland’s secret lies in the closeness of their connections. Those little passes to shift the point of attack, the numbers instantly on hand to resource the breakdowns, the quick transfer out the back to the next wave of runners, the convincing dummy runners, James Lowe’s raking left boot. If Farrell was selecting a British & Irish Lions squad next week, there could well be more representatives from Ireland than England, Scotland and Wales combined.
Should Ireland sew up this season’s title with a round to spare, it will also reignite another frequent debate. Borthwick rates Ireland as “the world’s best team right now” but what he really covets is the aligned structure supporting their national side. “You look at it and it seems so joined up,” he said this week, clearly of the opinion that, as things stand, the English equivalent is nothing of the sort. “They have 15 players from the same (provincial) team in the 23. I think every country would look at that in an envious manner.”
The net result, either way, is that Ireland’s players have been steadily improving while many of England’s have plateaued by comparison. Bundee Aki, Tadhg Beirne, Dan Sheehan, the barnstorming new lock Joe McCarthy … slot them in alongside Caelan Doris, Tadhg Furlong and Jamison Gibson-Park and the effect is akin to a shamrock-wearing octopus whose tentacles are everywhere at once.
Ronan O’Gara also offered the view this week from his vantage point in La Rochelle that the Premiership is collectively weaker than a decade ago, notwithstanding the occasional decent win by, for example, Northampton in Munster in January. He is right in terms of forward power but that still does not entirely explain why so many obviously talented backs seem to disappear into the rugby equivalent of the Bermuda triangle when they pull on an England shirt.
This is as significant a game, then, for George Ford and Ollie Lawrence as it is for the 21-year-old Manny Feyi-Waboso on the occasion of his first Twickenham start. If England are still in the game after an hour, maybe it will leave the stage set for Harlequins’ familiar attacking triangle of Danny Care – in line to to win his deserved 100th cap off the bench – Alex Dombrandt and the fit-again Marcus Smith.
England cutting lovely angles, putting pace on the ball, making their opponents think and showing a ruthless edge in the red zone? Maybe that is projecting the mirage too far, too soon but what do England, ultimately, have to lose? “I’ve seen the England team in recent times going into situations where the opposition were fancied ahead of us and I’ve seen them jump at the challenge,” Borthwick said. “I sense that from them now.” Ireland should still return home victorious but expect England to fire more shots this time.
