If you look at the statistics, at the number of years since India last lost a series at home, how dominant they have been and for how long, it would be very easy for England’s fans and for that matter their players to think: “Why bother?” Instead they need to be asking: “What needs to change?” What might make this difficult challenge more achievable?
In that context the news Virat Kohli will miss at least the first two Tests is a massive boost for England and a blow for their opponents. It is like taking Joe Root out of the England side. It will leave a huge hole, and what a tonic for the tourists to know they can go hard against opponents without their premium player. Harry Brook’s absence for England is unfortunate, but not comparable.
Then, of course, there is Bazball. Brendon McCullum has been coaching this group of players for nearly two years and he has brought about a massive shift in mentality. England have not gone to India with this mentality before, not as a group. I think of the trip to Sri Lanka in 2018, when England under Trevor Bayliss were determined to be aggressive but in a calculated way. They were 113 for five by lunch on the first day of the first Test and, yes, the wickets had fallen but the team had set out their stall, and after that Ben Foakes on debut played in a calculated, calm way to put them in control and on the way to a 3-0 series win.
I read an article about Ravichandran Ashwin, in which he said the most challenging time to bowl is when a batter is successfully controlling his emotions, being proactive about when to take on boundary options and helping themselves to low‑risk singles. That is the balance you’re looking for between risk and reward in Asian conditions, which Foakes found that day, and Root demonstrated so brilliantly in the first Test of England’s last series in India, scoring 218 and helping his team to reach a position from which they could win the match. Root is now just 30 runs away from overtaking Ricky Ponting and becoming the highest runscorer against India in Test cricket, which is some feat. I hope he can find the mentality that took him to No 1 in the world before McCullum took over, and the level of ruthlessness that allowed him to post scores of that magnitude.
There was Kevin Pietersen’s magnificent hundred in Mumbai in 2012 and Chris Lewis way back in 1993. Batters prepared to take calculated risks, to go up and down the gears and control their emotions, can succeed – but we have only ever seen individuals do it, never a whole batting lineup.
I think it is fair to question this England side’s ability to control their emotions. Like many ex‑cricketers I was particularly struck by that session at Lord’s in last summer’s Ashes where three batters got out hooking to an obviously leg-side field. I want to see a more ruthless mindset, a determination to go on and win matches. Against very good opponents in their home conditions you may have passages of play where you are dominating, but can you sustain them long enough to win matches? And how does that sit with this team’s mantra of entertainment above everything?
There is going to be a fascinating battle between England’s two batting left‑handers, Stokes and Ben Duckett, and Ashwin. I was on the trip when Duckett played in India in 2016, and he was obviously very talented but also inexperienced. Nearly eight years later he has complete belief in his skills and absolute clarity in how he wants to play, using his reverse sweep almost as a forward defensive as his first option against spin. Ashwin might come on quite early to bowl to Duckett and how he goes about it might well set the tone for England’s innings. Meanwhile, Ashwin has played 12 Tests against Stokes and dismissed him 11 times, more than any other player, and England’s captain will need to find methods of combating him.
Of course, if England are to win a match they need to get 20 wickets. It is great to see Jack Leach back in the fold, and he is their only specialist spinner of any experience or track record. The selections of Rehan Ahmed, Shoaib Bashir and Tom Hartley are risks and easy to criticise, but when it comes to spinners England’s cupboard is almost bare. I can only think of Liam Dawson who can reasonably feel he has been overlooked, but England have gone with the data and most of all the height: Hartley and Bashir are both 6ft 4in, and the feeling is that by bowling at decent pace and with a high release point they are harder to counter. Of course what data does not show is character and how those players will react in a huge series. But for a young player what a fabulous chance to travel to the home of spin bowling and to play against Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja, two of the modern greats. I hope across the tour they will have the chance to sit down with those guys and tap into that experience and knowledge.
Looking at the itinerary and matches played in the past in the same venues, I’m not sure we’ll see surfaces as challenging as the ones England faced on their last visit. The World Test Championship encourages teams to win matches and that means result pitches. An England series win is not likely, but it’s not impossible – particularly given Kohli’s absence, an India side facing a couple of selection issues, and a sense that they are not a juggernaut rolling at full pace, at the height of its powers. Stokes is about to lead his side into one of the toughest tasks in world cricket, and they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
