England will not be “smoke-free” until 2039, missing a key public health target by almost a decade, an analysis has found.
While smoking rates are in decline they are not falling fast enough to realise the government’s ambition of England being “smoke-free” by 2030, according to Cancer Research UK (CRUK).
And stark socioeconomic inequalities in smoking – with poorer people much more likely to light up than the well-off – will continue for decades to come, its research shows.
In 2019, the government announced its intention for England to be “smoke-free” by 2030, which it defined as 5% of adults, or fewer, still smoking. It is a key measure of progress towards improving the population’s health, given smoking causes almost 80,000 deaths a year across the UK from cancer, heart disease and other conditions and costs the NHS billions to treat.
However, CRUK’s latest analysis of when the 5% target will be reached has concluded that it will not be until 2039, even though smoking rates are expected to keep coming down in the next few years.
“Our updated projections, based on the continuation of recent trends, indicate that smoking prevalence will continue to fall in England, but not fast enough to achieve the smoke-free ambition set out.
“If recent trends continue, England will achieve 5% average adult smoking prevalence in 2039 – almost a decade behind schedule,” it says.
About 6 million UK adults – fewer than one in eight (11.9%) – smoke, the lowest proportion on record and down from 20.2% in 2011, according to the most recent Office for National Statistics data. England has the lowest prevalence (11.6%) – 4.9 million people there still smoke – and Scotland the highest (13.5%).
Although that downward trend is expected to continue, CRUK’s projections show that even this will not narrow what it calls “the deprivation gap” in smoking habits.
For example, smoking prevalence is expected to hit the 5% target among the best-off tenth of the population by 2025 but will still be stuck around the same 5% figure for the poorest tenth until 2050.
In addition, even when the smoke-free target is finally achieved in 2039, almost four times as many of the poorest people will still be using tobacco than the wealthiest.
“When England is projected to reach smoke-free in 2039, of the remaining 5% of people who still smoke, more than 459,000 people in the most deprived tenth of the population will still smoke, compared with about 119,000 in the least deprived tenth.
“By 2039, almost two in 10 (17.47%) people who smoke in England are estimated to live in the most deprived tenth of areas,” the charity’s analysis found. In comparison, 4.54% of the best-off tenth of the population will still be smoking by 2039.
Michelle Mitchell, CRUK’s chief executive, urged the government to publish its long-promised tobacco and vapes bill as soon as possible, to help speed the shift away from smoking.
“Every day around 160 people in the UK are diagnosed with cancer as a result of smoking. The government must prioritise the health of the nation by introducing the Tobacco and vapes bill without further delay. Continued hesitation could disrupt the path to a smoke-free UK.”
The Guardian disclosed recently that the bill has been delayed amid opposition within No 10 to going ahead with a plan to ban smoking in some outdoor areas, such as pub gardens.
The Department of Health and Social Care did not respond directly to CRUK’s findings. A spokesperson said: “Smoking is the number one preventable cause of death, disability and ill-health, claiming the lives of 80,000 people a year in the UK.
“The tobacco and vapes bill will be the biggest public health intervention in a generation, tackling the harms of smoking, breaking the cycle of addiction and paving the way for a smoke-free UK.”
