Voters across England have the opportunity to give their verdict on Rishi Sunak’s government on Thursday in the last set of local elections before the general election.
Many of the seats up for grabs were last contested in May 2021, when the Conservatives under Boris Johnson were enjoying a Covid “vaccine bounce”. Fast-forward three years and the Tories are trailing 20 points behind Labour in national polls.
There is therefore no doubt that the next few days are going to be difficult for the Conservatives as the results trickle in. Just how difficult they will be will depend on whether the extent of the Tory drubbing surpasses expectations.
This is a small set of local elections, covering 2,636 seats across 107 English councils. Labour and the Conservatives are each defending about 1,000 seats, and psephologists predict that the Tories may lose 500. Voters will also elect 10 metro mayors. A particularly bad set of results could destabilise Sunak’s position.
Here are the key results to look out for and when:
Early hours of Friday
The result of the parliamentary election in Blackpool South will set the tone early on. Labour is expected to win back the seat, which fell vacant after the former Tory MP Scott Benton resigned after breaching standards rules in a lobbying scandal. Benton won the once solidly Labour-voting constituency in the 2019 election with a 3,690 majority.
Between around 1.30am and 4am on Friday, 39 councils are expected to declare their results, giving a partial picture of the overall outcome. Among the councils due to declare at around 3am is Harlow, a key bellwether town and general election battleground where all 33 seats are up for grabs. Keir Starmer went to Harlow, which is currently Tory-controlled, for his eve-of-poll campaign visit on Wednesday.
Overnight results are also due to come in from Rushmoor, Thurrock and Redditch, all of which are Tory-controlled but which Labour hopes to take.
Friday lunchtime
Things will go quiet for a while on Friday morning, after the councils that counted overnight have finished declaring and the ones that only start counting in the daytime begin. The result of the Tees Valley mayoral contest, where Ben Houchen is fighting a challenge from Labour’s Chris McEwan, is expected at about 12.30pm.
Houchen won a second term as mayor in 2021 with a huge 72.8% of the vote. But in the last four years his popularity has taken a knock from controversy over the Teesworks regeneration project and the national collapse in the Tory brand. Nonetheless, YouGov polling this week put Houchen seven points ahead of McEwan. If he were unexpectedly to lose, it would deal a major blow to Sunak.
At around noon on Friday, Labour will find out if it has won the contest for the new North East mayor, which would be a shoo-in if not for the independent Jamie Driscoll.
Results will also come in from Tory-controlled Walsall, a key general election battleground that was part of the “red wall” that flipped from Labour in 2019. Labour is also fighting for three extra seats it needs for a majority on Cannock Chase council, which has been a bellwether since 1997.
Friday afternoon
The result of the new East Midlands mayoral contest is due at around 2pm on Friday, and Labour is expect to win. At around 3pm we will find out the result of the York & North Yorkshire mayoral race, where Labour is eyeing an upset in a Tory heartland – and Sunak’s back yard.
About half of the councils holding elections are expected to declare their results between noon and 6pm on Friday. Between 2 and 3pm these will include Basildon, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Hyndburn and Milton Keynes, all top Labour targets. Labour needs just two seats to take control in Milton Keynes, a bellwether area, for the first time in 24 years.
By around 4pm results are expected from Tunbridge Wells and Wokingham, two Lib Dem target areas that are “blue wall” Tory strongholds in the south-east of England. The Lib Dems are hoping to take control of both councils.
Around 6pm it will be clear how many Green gains there have been in Bristol at Labour’s expense. Bristol is the Greens’ top target in the general election. By Friday evening there should be results from Elmbridge, Dominic Raab’s patch, where the Lib Dems are gunning for control of the council, and Dorset and Gloucester, which they want to knock into no overall control.
Saturday afternoon
The West Midlands metro mayoralty – perhaps the most closely fought major contest in this set of elections – is expected to declare its result on Saturday around 3pm. Andy Street is seeking re-election for a third term but faces a challenge from Labour’s Richard Parker, with polls suggesting the pair have been neck and neck.
The results of the London mayoral contest and London assembly elections are also due on Saturday. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is seeking a third term and polls have put him comfortably ahead of Tory Susan Hall, despite jitters in Khan’s campaign team. The Greater Manchester contest, which Andy Burnham is all but certain to win, is also due.
This last set of results, which will include some councils and police and crime commissioners declaring on Saturday and Sunday, will complete the picture of these local elections and determine just how much trouble the Conservatives are in.
