When I saw England against Belgium in the Arnold Clark Cup in Bristol, in February, I thought to myself: this is probably the best national team in the world at the moment and I had the Lionesses as pretty clear favourites going into the World Cup. Injuries mean, sadly, that has changed, but they are certainly one of the eight teams that could reach the quarter-final stage and go on to win the trophy.
As Arsenal manager, I fully understand the effect of losing Beth Mead and Leah Williamson. Anyone watching the Euros last year could see how significant a role those two had. The key to looking at just how disruptive their absence will be for England is to look at their positions.
In terms of Mead, England have quite deep cover in the wide forward positions. Any team in the world would miss a player like Beth but England also have Chloe Kelly, who has played at a high level last season, and Lauren James, who was not involved last year. So, despite the loss of Mead, that’s a position the team is strong in. England still have an attack that is absolutely up there with the best.
What they need to get right before the tournament is defensive organisation and building relationships between the new back four, really getting that to work as a unit because that is what will be tested against the top teams in the later stages of the tournament.
Williamson’s ability playing out from the back and her leadership qualities make her hard to replace. The team and the coach, Sarina Wiegman, have not had a lot of preparation playing without her in the backline. I would not necessarily describe the process of replacing Williamson as trial and error, but it is going to require time on the training pitch to work out how to deal with the captain’s absence.
In England’s 2-0 loss to Australia in April, which Williamson started but Millie Bright was out for, you could see what can happen when you miss key relationships in the backline. I expect Wiegman will use the prep camps before the first game to find her preferred back four and give that unit as much time together as possible.
The status of Bright, who is working her way back from injury, is crucial. The question is whether Wiegman looks for the best possible partnership for Bright in anticipation of her playing, which would be the preferred option, or does she plan without her? If Bright can’t train with the team then you can’t properly test your preferred backline before the tournament starts and that is risky.
Further forward, Ella Toone is going to be the preference as the No 10 in the absence of Fran Kirby. She played a massive role coming off the bench during the Euros, but we have seen she is ready to be a starting player for England. The relationship she had at Manchester United with Alessia Russo last season is also important. One thing that is sometimes overlooked in international football is that leaning on the relationships at club level can be beneficial. Do you want to play Toone with Bethany England (Tottenham) or Rachel Daly (Aston Villa) and Russo with Jordan Nobbs (Villa)?
Maybe on paper those combinations look stronger, but you may not get the level of communication that can be perfected by two players who have played so much together and that is something to consider.
Russo has a lot of great qualities, which is why I have brought her to Arsenal, and she is definitely capable of leading the line for England. She’s incredibly hard-working in and out of possession and offers a really good point of attack. She is able to hold the ball up, protect the ball, but also dribble out of difficult situations, and is a very creative finisher.
She can finish in many different ways, from outside the box, with a header or even with a backheel. She is drawn to those finishing opportunities, which is animportant thing to have as a striker. Then there is the passion she plays the game with: she invests every inch of herself into every game.
One interesting aspect of Wiegman’s coaching style is that she likes to think about the finishing XI as much as she does the starting XI. She develops a clear idea of which players best fit into those roles. The game state is very different from minute one to minute 70 and you have to find the players who can adapt and settle in those moments. Russo and Toone were the ones to come off the bench last year, but there is no doubt they have the qualities to be able to start as well.
Two players who could play a big part, even if not starters, are England and Nobbs. They showed how important the World Cup is to them by changing clubs in order to play more regularly in the buildup. There have been plenty of examples of people moving elsewhere for that particular reason and it not paying off, so it is a really brave thing to do.
One other thing that has changed since the Euros is that England have – in addition to the injuries to Mead, Williamson and Kirby – lost the experience that players such as Jill Scott and Ellen White brought to the team. Good leadership can make a big difference when you’re away as a group for that length of time. England met on 19 June and if they go all the way to the final on 20 August, that is two months.
It is vital to have players that can handle that time together and keep the team energised. Should things go to plan England will have their first big test on 7 August in the last 16, a month and a half on from meeting up, so the question is whether they will have preserved their energies for that moment and beyond? That is going to be a challenge with this new group with all those caps and tournament experience missing.
Is the team capable of winning? Yes. They are expected to reach the quarter-finals and from then on, if they play as well as they can, they can go all the way. But they will need to be at their absolute best and have the small margins on their side.
