City economist Simon French has given it a name: the dullness dividend. That is the value that investors would place on a vaguely competent, boring even, Prime Minister leading a stable Government with economic policies that add up.
We are so far from that currently it is painful. Meanwhile, as we reveal in these pages today, the pound is now seen as so flaky that investors prefer to flip into volatile Bitcoin as a “safe haven.” This is a pattern that has only been seen before with some of the world’s most fragile currencies such as the Turkish lira.
How the mighty pound sterling, once one of the world’s primary reserve currencies, has fallen.
While the madness continues there is little hope of business investment picking up to drive the productivity and economic growth we all crave but seems so unattainable. In truth the anti-growth coalition is rooted in Downing Street. In a Britain of Prime Ministerial revolving doors, political psycho-dramas and Government by chaos what hope is there of meaningful long term planning and investment.
Not everything can be laid at the Government’s door. The spike in energy costs triggered by the war in Ukraine is of course a huge contributor to inflation. But at times of international crisis the dullness dividend becomes ever more important. Infact it could not be a worse time for our entire governing classes to suffer an apparent mass breakdown. One thing is for sure. We will all pay the price.