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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Pjotr Sauer

‘End justifies the means’: high Russian death toll fails to shift opinion on Ukraine war

Three destroyed Russian tanks pictured from above
Destroyed Russian tanks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. According to western assessments, 115,000 Russians have been killed in the war so far. Photograph: Vladyslav Musiienko/Reuters

Huddled in an undisclosed location near the frontlines, the two Russian soldiers appeared desperate as they recorded what they feared might be their final message.

Introducing themselves as Vyacheslav Trutnev and Dmitry Ostrovsky, from the 132nd Brigade of the 109th Regiment, the men recounted how they fled their position in eastern Ukraine after their company commander ordered them to advance at night through minefields to a new location, a move they called a “suicide mission”.

“Three groups already went ahead and they aren’t responding. And we were the fourth,” said one of the two, in a clip published on Russian social media. “This mission was a one-way ticket. We laid down our weapons and retreated.”

The soldiers then proceeded to berate their commander for sending “the hungry and freezing in droves to their deaths … Your insane orders are killing them.”

The clip offers a rare but telling glimpse into the nature of Moscow’s warfare, which Russian soldiers have likened to being thrown into a meat grinder.

Throughout the war in Ukraine, Russia is believed to have suffered catastrophic losses, reportedly losing up to 90% of the personnel it had at the onset of the conflict.

September was a particularly deadly month for the Russian army, according to US, British and other European officials, with an average of more than 1,000 of its soldiers injured or killed each day.

UK military intelligence claims September was the deadliest month for the Russian army since the start of the war in Ukraine. But crucially for Moscow, the massive casualties have neither provoked significant public discontent within Russian society nor discouraged potential new recruits.

According to western assessments, Russian casualties in the war so far tally up to 115,000 killed and 500,000 wounded.

The staggering death toll – estimated to be 10 times higher than Soviet losses during the war in Afghanistan – is difficult to verify but is consistent with independent open-source reports.

Using official reports, online obituaries on social media and images of tombstones, the BBC Russian service with the independent website Mediazona have identified the names of 74,014 dead Russians. They estimate the real tally to be between 113,000 to 160,000 deaths.

“We’ve seen a significant increase over the past six months,” said a spokesperson at Mediazona.

Russia’s approach to warfare aims to wear down Ukrainian forces and expose their positions, drawing them out into a fight. Ukrainian drone footage circulating online often captures unprotected Russian troops advancing toward Kyiv’s positions with minimal air or artillery support.

While costly, this strategy has also proven effective, leading the Russian army to a series of victories in Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and most recently Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine.

“For Russia, the end justifies the means,” said a former Russian defence official, speaking on conditions of anonymity.

“Before the war, such casualties would have seemed unimaginable. Now, it appears that the generals hardly care as long as they meet Putin’s demands.” Despite the losses, Russia is able to replenish its ranks by recruiting up to 30,000 new soldiers a month – roughly as many as are leaving the battlefield. This has allowed the military to consistently deploy wave after wave of troops against Ukrainian defences.

The key role is played by financial incentives, which have raised Russian military salaries to unprecedented levels, said Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, a polling and sociological research company in Moscow.

In some regions, Russians who sign a contract with the army will receive an upfront payment of up to 3m roubles (£23,800), on top of the monthly minimum wage of £1,757 – about four times the average salary in Russia.

As Russia suffered more losses this summer and fall, it has also ramped up its recruitment.

According to data from the Ukrainian OpenMinds research centre, there was a 224% increase in Russian military recruitment ads following the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk this summer. The data also shows that in August 2024 alone, internet searches for military contracts in Russia surged by 66%.

Aside from isolated protests by a small group of outraged wives and mothers, public attitudes supporting the invasion have remained largely unchanged, even in the face of record losses. This undermines initial western and Ukrainian assumptions that high casualties would bring the Russian war machine to a halt.

The former Ukrainian army chief Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi has previously lamented that in any other country such high “casualties would have stopped the war”.

Volkov believes that one of the main reasons behind Russian society’s apparent indifference to the rising death toll lies in the composition of the army.

Statistics show that most of those who are fighting and dying are either volunteers from impoverished Russian regions or former convicts, rather than mobilised soldiers forced to fight or those who signed a contract before the war.

Despite pressure from his generals, Vladimir Putin has reportedly resisted declaring a new mobilisation – a deeply unpopular move that would forcibly pull hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens from their everyday lives.

“The bulk of the men currently fighting do so voluntarily for substantial financial incentives. Society views it as their choice, leading to a relatively calm reaction to their deaths,” Volkov said.

“The wives of those who die receive significant compensation, while their children are granted free university education. As a result, the families believe that the government is looking after their interests.

“For many in large cities like Moscow and St Petersburg, the war still feels very distant,” Volkov said, noting that most enlisted soldiers come from smaller regional towns and cities in parts of Russia where stable, well-paying jobs are difficult to find.

Simultaneously, the Kremlin and its propaganda machine have launched a campaign that sociologists refer to as an effort to “glorify” the deaths, portraying fallen soldiers as heroes.

“The losses are part of a heroic sacrificial ‘ethos’ that is being imposed on society and has become a source of pride for many,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based political analyst.

Across the country, schools, parks and public buildings have been marked with thousands of memorial plaques in what is framed as the ultimate sacrifice for the homeland.

The Russian president has also tried to couple the conflict to the second world war, galvanising nationalist sentiments and framing the military actions as a continuation of historical struggles.

Some observers interpret Russia’s subdued reaction to mass casualties as rooted in a longstanding tradition, further reinforced under Putin’s leadership, where the value of individual life is diminished.

This perspective draws on historical reference points, including the many who perished during the second world war, the mass purges under Stalin, and most recently the Covid death toll, believed to be one of the highest in the world.

“Under Putin, the value of life has further diminished, while he simultaneously cultivated a cult of death,” said Dina Khapaeva, a Russian professor at Georgia Institute of Technology in the US, who focuses her research on historical memory.

Khapaeva highlighted a speech by Putin delivered in front of the mothers of fallen soldiers, in which he seemingly praised their children’s deaths. “Your son lived, and his goal has been achieved,” Putin said. “And that means he did not leave life in vain.”

Vladimir Solovyov, a popular Russian propagandist, further reinforced the idea that sacrifices made for the state were rewarded in the afterlife, telling his viewers there was no need to fear death because “we will go to heaven”.

Putin is offering Russians “the joy of death”, said Khapaeva.

“Instead of a meaningless, hopeless, impoverished life, a Russian is offered the chance to die ‘for the motherland’.”

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