Just months after his last, tense exchange with the Canberra press corps, China’s ambassador toasted their health on Tuesday.
Experts say Ambassador Xiao Qian’s upbeat tone in a 90-minute new year press conference could be a signal that Beijing will take a new approach to diplomacy as the country ends COVID-19 isolation.
Alongside encouraging statements about Australian citizens in detention and a trade embargo, Ambassador Xiao’s speech also pointed to some of the fundamental political differences that could complicate a return to diplomatic normality.
A toast
“The year of the rabbit is considered to be the year of jumping over obstacles and coming into good luck,” he said, while raising his glass.
The ambassador said 2022 had been an extraordinary year for relations with Australia and said the resumption of communications meant the countries could begin to return a badly degraded relationship towards what has been the norm of recent decades.
“We have different views, but there’s no reason for us to be confrontational in nature,” he said.
“That’s the basic idea guiding our relationship.”
China cut communications channels and imposed $20 billion worth of sanctions on Australian exports after the previous government called for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, including that health officials should be armed with the powers of weapons inspectors.
There was a report this week that officials in China were preparing to allow for sanctions on coal to be lifted.
Mr Xiao said the decision would fall to the companies themselves, but said signals from the central government mattered while sending the strongest indication yet that embargoes might lift.
Encouraging signs
“We [previously] have [had] to tell our companies that we’re having some problems with this country politically: You have to be careful,” he said.
“The Chinese people are aware that it’s good to see that we have a better relationship.
“So as we move on, I hope personally that we’re gonna have a more active engagement in all the possible areas, including trade relations.”
The ambassador made a similarly non-committal but encouraging statement about two Australians detained in China, including the TV journalist Cheng Lei who has been detained for two years.
“I hope a solution will come as soon as possible, but we need to respect the legal procedure,” he said.
That the ambassador couched both statements in personal terms showed commitment to building on diplomatic momentum, said Professor James Laurenceson, of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney.
“He obviously can’t get ahead of decisions by China’s leaders and the foreign ministry in Beijing, but by repeatedly stating he ‘personally’ wants to encourage further relationship improvement [he] is making it clear what direction he’s pushing in,” he said.
“That’s encouraging.”
Perhaps less so were remarks about the ambassador’s Japanese counterpart, Shingo Yamagami.
Undiplomatic remark
A front-page story in a News Corporation newspaper that morning quoted Tokyo’s man in Canberra warning Australians to be wary of Beijing’s new friendly face, and China’s envoy did not hold back in response.
“It’s not my role … to try and stop Australia developing a normal relationship with a third country,” he said.
“In the Second World War Japan invaded Australia, bombed Darwin, killed Australians and … it was humanly unacceptable.
“The Japanese government has not apologised for that up to today.
“That means they don’t accept it’s wrong. And they might repeat the history.
“When someone threatens you they might threaten you again.”
That underscores what could be an awkward point for the government; Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has cultivated close ties with his Japanese counterpart.
More to see
Together with much more muted criticism about the AUKUS submarine agreement, it pointed to the difficulties of reading too much into the ambassador’s remarks, the head of the Asia Society Australia, Philipp Ivanov says.
He said hints at progress on trade and the Australians in detention were an encouraging sign the relationship was stabilising – albeit one yet to be backed with action.
But while the return of diplomacy may have started to bear fruit – politics and geopolitics could yet stand in the way.
“The signals from China are encouraging and positive,” he said.
“But there are some fundamental structural issues remaining, particularly on the future and structure of Asia and security in the region.
“It’s a matter of seeing what happens next and whether just after the diplomatic engagement that we’ve seen on both sides, we’ll actually see some changes.”
