Record exports of gas and critical minerals are pumping up Australia's earnings and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.
The Resources and Energy Quarterly report, released on Tuesday, showed the commodities sector would post $450 billion in export earnings in 2022/23, up from an expected $422 billion.
Australia is also "well placed" in the global push for low-emission technologies with exports of critical minerals more than doubling in two years, the report by the Office of the Chief Economist said.
Exports of vital metals including copper, nickel and lithium are expected to generate $33 billion in export earnings in 2022/23 as Australian mines benefit from rising prices and expanding production.
The invasion of Ukraine has sparked turmoil on energy markets, inflating prices and forcing major economies to look for a replacement for Russian gas, including recent deals inked with Australian giant Woodside Energy.
Australia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export values are forecast to hit a record $90 billion in 2022/23, up from $84 billion forecast only three months ago, and more than the $70 billion in the last financial year.
Energy prices remain elevated, as the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbates existing energy shortages, the report says.
But energy prices other than gas "will likely fall back in 2023 and 2024" as gains in world supply combine with soft demand.
The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association said the record forecast for LNG exports shows the importance of bringing on new gas supply to Australia's economy.
"We have invested as an industry over $300 billion in LNG export projects since 2010 and the economic returns on that investment are clear to see," the industry body's CEO Samantha McCulloch said.
The quarterly report tipped oil and gas exports to top $100 billion for the first time, forecast at $105 billion in 2022/23.
The latest export figures also show Australia continues to be one of the world's largest fossil fuel exporters.
University of NSW professor Jeremy Moss says at 81 mega tonnes, Australia is the equal-largest exporter LNG and the second-largest exporter of thermal coal, at nearly 200 mega tonnes.
He calculates the emissions from the fossil fuel exports as double the amount of Australia's domestic emissions and five times the projected annual emissions cuts under the federal government's target.
"It's like putting one foot on the accelerator, while putting another foot on the brake," Prof Moss said.
"Extracting more coal oil and gas will just lead to a larger, mostly unfunded clean-up bill as coal mines and gas fields inevitably will need to shut down."
