In 1999, as a journalist working for this newspaper, I flew into Ukraine for a short trip to report on the situation there. In the throes of a financial crisis, soaring inflation had rendered their currency worthless, eight years after they had voted overwhelmingly for independence from the Soviet Union. I landed in Kyiv and made a beeline for the eerie UNESCO World Heritage site of Pechersk Lavra, a vast monastic network of catacombs, where mummified monks have been laid to rest since the 11th century. In the coming days, it is not inconceivable that its 69 acres of holy ground will become a hiding place for some of Kyiv’s 2.8 million civilians. I can still recall the damp, fetid air and claustrophobia — matched by the awe I felt at its history.
From there, I took a propeller plane to the tree-lined, cobbled streets of Odessa. Loose chickens flapped across my lap in the cabin; the plane’s seatbelts hung uselessly, while the air hostess slid up the tiny aisle on her knees offering jellied shots of vodka in small plastic glasses as refreshment. I loved every second. We landed in an airport that doubled as a pig farm.
The stunning beaches of the city, lined with glamorous women, aped scenes from St Tropez. But on entering the bars, I noticed no one bought drinks. As you walked away from the beach the paths were lined with desperate grannies selling baby tortoises in the hope of a few kopiyok. In streets with Chanel and Louis Vuitton stores, Ukrainian mafia swaggered by, in dark suits and dark glasses, their guns visible. At night, the clubs filled with girls dancing languorously with western men, perhaps in the hope they would whisk them away from poverty.
I’ve never forgotten that visit: the warm, passionate people I met, the staggering beauty and culture of a country still in the toddler years of sovereignty. Ukraine’s relatively short period of independence has been riddled with complications. The struggle to cement its own culture has been combined with battling corruption, economic and political woes and the threat of Putin’s wish to have Ukraine under Russian control, including the Crimean war of 2014.
It is particularly cruel that just as Ukrainian efforts have come to fruition — a stable government, the power of oligarchs reduced and increasing ties with Europe — they may have to fight in every street to protect their freedoms. Successful democracy is exactly what President Putin feared. He has long harboured an imperial idea of the Russian nation, consisting of Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians. In his view, the last two groups don’t have a right to exist as separate nations.
It is a horrible irony that Moscow vowed to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty as a condition of the country surrendering its nuclear weapons after the Soviet collapse. Putin now uses the threat of a nuclear war to keep Ukraine’s western allies at bay, while the Ukrainians have no warheads of their own. His words yesterday were chilling, and will pervade every decision in the following days — no one trusts Putin’s reactions or the sanity of his mind. Europe will do everything to avoid a nuclear war.
Putin, we assume, factored in both this and sanctions. With Ukraine outside Nato protection, we will not put soldiers on the ground. He is betting the west wobbles, like we did with Syria and Crimea, while he destroys Ukraine’s military. After expressing initial horror, and once a puppet government is in place, the world will turn away rather than risk something more catastrophic.
Our hope must be that Putin has vastly miscalculated. Miscalculated the ferocity of the sanctions imposed last night and the economic shock they deliver. Underestimated the organised response by Nato. The halting of Nordstream. That he has left out of account that Ukrainian oligarchs do not want to be ruled by the Kremlin. That there will be an increased flow of weapons to Ukraine, followed swiftly by financial support. The disastrous effect of Russia becoming an international pariah.
Even if Putin succeeds with regime change, Ukrainians will respond with insurgency, funded by western allies, which will be hugely costly to Russia. As their president spends the summer on his £78 million yacht, will his people accept their economic fate? Fifty per cent of Russians polled recently said they didn’t want Ukraine joining Nato, but they were not backing a bloody and costly occupation. This invasion could go either way. If he fails, it is catastrophic for Putin. And it will lead to his downfall.
