It seems odd to have chosen Halloween as the day to deliver your make-or-break fiscal statement. But that’s what our Chancellor has done. Imagine the memes and ghoulish references if the markets give it the thumbs-down. And there was already a graveyard feel among the Tory tribe. The mood is described as “sulphurous”, the outlook for the Prime Minister “deadly” — and these are two of the kinder briefings sloshing around Westminster.
Even the King greeted our PM on Wednesday, with “Back again? Dear, oh dear”, as Truss awkwardly curtsied. Rumours are swirling that an imminent U-turn is expected on some or all of her and Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts, as senior, respected Tories break into the open demanding she reconsider. The Chancellor raced home from Washington in the early hours today for crisis talks. Waiting until Halloween is no longer an option to pull us out of this fiscal impasse, and some MPs are even plotting to remove our premier.
Liz Truss has two options: U-turn on her tax cuts to help calm the markets or continue with her fiscal agenda and watch the markets punish us further. The former means she might buy some time remaining in No 10. But she would be without any real power and following Rishi Sunak’s economic agenda. Or she can choose the latter, and it will be a matter of days before the 1922 Committee is flooded with letters and the chairman, Sir Graham Brady, will act, whatever the rules.
Either option is terrible for everyone. Because while governments are in crisis or stasis, little gets done. To mention just one looming problem, the NHS appears on the verge of near-collapse. Labour is the only winner of this snowballing situation. It continues to charge ahead with a 27-point lead over the Tories in the polling average. The party only needs to look sensible, keep working on clever solutions to problems that will tempt different voter factions over to Labour and let the Tories continue to torpedo us and themselves. This week, I met Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, at a Bloomberg event: quietly spoken, calm, competent, not at all Corbyn-scary. Everyone wanted to talk to her.
Some within the Tory party are vainly calling for unity and to back Truss (even as they say privately, she’s sunk). The unflappable James Cleverly, our Foreign Secretary, warned that replacing Truss would be “politically and economically disastrous for Britain”. Except the fact he is having to say this, 38 days into her new government, is proof enough her position is already highly precarious.
Credibility is stretched to breaking point — yes, over its economic competence, and the real economic pain of its actions. But also because the Conservatives don’t look like a ruling party anymore. Merely unruly. I should put in a caveat to save my blushes in case I am proved wrong, but honestly, I can’t imagine what twist of fate could change the current trajectory for the Conservative Party to lose at the next election.
We are on our fourth leader, each one removed more brutally than the last, and a fifth would trump satire. Only months on from Boris Johnson being deposed, ugly rancour is flowing again. After the past 12 years of changing leaders, and most importantly Brexit, the Tories in Westminster — and the grandees outside of it — are largely made up of those who have either been sacked, ignored, wronged, or over time proven right. And few hold back from reminding everyone of their viewpoint.
Truss brutally removed every Sunak supporter from her Cabinet, and they are gathering against her, while even half of those within her Cabinet are now on leadership manoeuvres. Not hard working, loyal Thérèse Coffey. She will go down with Truss in a puff of exasperated cigar smoke.
As voters, we grow increasingly bewildered and angry, as our problems — and mortgages — continue to mount. The Truss acolytes can shout “growth” as loudly as they like but growth requires investment, and investors want to see calm governance and stability. Not endless political bunfight and a new PM blustering. She can U-turn but the damage is done. A new government looks likely within two years. Or a new leader in the months to come.
If Truss does essentially adopt Sunak orthodoxy, then she should stand aside for him. He would caretake us to the next election, with at least economic competence. But this is the Tories: Boris Johnson’s allies would make his life hell. Forget Halloween. Every day is political fright night.
