One of President-elect Donald Trump's biggest benefactors in his bid for a second term was Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX and the richest man on the planet. Musk went all in on Trump's reelection bid and now seems primed to exert an outsized role in a second administration. But what is he likely to get in return?
Even before hopping onstage and declaring himself "dark MAGA" at an October Trump rally in Pennsylvania, Musk put a staggering amount of cash into the race: Starting in the summer, when he endorsed Trump after the former president narrowly escaped an assassination attempt, Musk poured more than $118 million into his own pro-Trump political action committee—an amount greater than what Trump's official campaign raised in total small-dollar donations.
After that, Musk was fully on board, casting Trump as America's last hope. "Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election," he wrote in a September post on X. "Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it!"
But given his business portfolio, Musk had very clear financial interests in the election's outcome—especially since the president wields considerable discretionary authority over many government subsidies. In a second Trump administration, Musk could stand to exert considerable influence on government policy to his own benefit. But if he pushes Trump to adopt a more broadly deregulatory agenda, it could provide benefits far beyond just Musk's own companies.
On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly suggested he would rescind a program providing $7,500 tax credits for new electric vehicle (E.V.) purchases, telling Reuters, "tax credits and tax incentives are not generally a very good thing."
Musk has made similar comments, telling The Wall Street Journal in 2021, "We don't need the $7,500 tax credit." In July 2024, he posted on X, "Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla. Also, remove subsidies from all industries!"
But Tesla is a major beneficiary of government incentives. Tesla's Model Y is one of the few E.V.s that still qualifies for the purchase credit after more strenuous sourcing requirements kicked in. The Model Y accounted for one-third of all E.V. sales between January 1 and June 10 of this year; during the same period, the government dispensed more than $1 billion worth of E.V. credits. And last year, Tesla listed certain models of its new Cybertruck at or below $79,990, just $10 below the cutoff for tax credit eligibility.
Tesla also benefits from environmental credits, which state and federal governments give out for building low-emission vehicles. "Tesla has reported around $10 billion" in sales of excess credits "since 2015," CNBC reported last week. "Regulatory credits were about 60% of Tesla's net income in the second quarter of 2024, and 39% in the third quarter. Other government rebates on EV sales represented about 50% of Tesla's third-quarter profit."
The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act established the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which would dispense more than $4 billion in state grants over five years to build public E.V. charging stations. In the 2021 Wall Street Journal interview, Musk called such a program "unnecessary." But Politico's David Ferris wrote in February that so far, Tesla had won more than 13 percent of all NEVI contracts awarded, totaling more than $17 million.
SpaceX, Musk's space technology company, is poised to benefit as well. "SpaceX has received more than $19 billion from contracts with the federal government since 2008," CNBC reported, and "is on track to take in several billions of dollars annually from prime contracts with the federal government for years to come." This amount does not include classified contracts: Earlier this year, Reuters reported that SpaceX signed a $1.8 billion contract to secretly develop a network of spy satellites for the U.S. government.
Starlink, SpaceX's subsidiary satellite internet service, has also received government contracts over the years, though not without controversy: In 2022, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rejected Starlink's bid for an $885.5 million contract to deploy broadband satellites in rural areas of the U.S., finding that Starlink "failed to demonstrate that [it] could deliver the promised service." Brendan Carr, a Republican FCC commissioner, charged that Starlink's application was rejected over "partisan politics," and last month, the Republican-led House Committee on Oversight and Accountability announced that it would be investigating the FCC's decision.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden's 2021 infrastructure bill apportioned $42 billion to expand high-speed internet across the country. In more than two years, the program failed to connect a single household. The Washington Post reported in October that Republican lawmakers have "telegraphed business upsides for Starlink, including pushing for the company to get a slice of" that internet subsidy money.
Trump has indicated that he wants to put Musk in charge of a government efficiency commission, tasked with cutting trillions of dollars from the federal budget. With such a position, Musk could have considerable influence over these contracts and programs, and he may very well petition to keep or expand them. Trump even softened his rhetoric on the campaign trail in response to Musk's support, saying in August, "I have no choice" but to support E.V.s "because Elon endorsed me very strongly."
On the other hand, Musk could push Trump further in a deregulatory direction, which would benefit not just his companies but his competitors. "Elon Musk sees all regulations as getting in the way of his businesses and innovation," a former SpaceX official told Reuters. "He sees the Trump administration as the vehicle for getting rid of as many regulations as he can, so he can do whatever he wants, as fast as he wants."
Of the two options, this should be the clear favorite, allowing not only Tesla and SpaceX but all other such companies to compete and innovate on a level playing field. Musk should follow his own advice: End subsidies and favorable government contracts, and let the private sector compete.
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