Tesla stock's huge recent run reflects "animal spirits" vs. a change of fundamentals since Donald Trump's election win, according to UBS analysts. Tesla stock fell Monday, reversing from modest gains to a fresh two-year highs.
In other Tesla news, Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom said he'll push for reviving state EV tax credits if the federal government repeals national EV incentives, but said he would exclude Tesla.
Also, CEO Elon Musk said over the weekend that the next big update to Full Self-Driving will be "coming soon." Finally, Tesla is offering a new discount on the Model Y in China as it makes a big year-end sales push.
Trump Boosts TSLA, But Not Tesla: UBS
UBS analysts led by Joseph Spak said that likely policies in President-elect Donald Trump's administration will be a mixed blessing at best. Removing electric vehicle subsidies could force Tesla to cut prices, Spak noted. Federal guidelines could speed the adoption of self-driving cars, but Tesla doesn't have an autonomous vehicle.
The rise in Tesla stock is mostly driven by animal spirits/momentum," Spak wrote in a Monday note.
UBS kept a sell rating on TSLA stock, but raised its price target to 226 from 197.
California EV Credits, But Not For Tesla?
Gov. Newsom on Monday proposed reviving state EV tax credits if U.S. tax credits of $7,500 are eliminated. But the plan would include market-share limits. That would exclude Tesla to promote more EV makers. California phased out state incentives in 2023. President-elect Trump has said he wants to eliminate U.S. EV tax credits. That would require Congress to act.
Elon Musk Says FSD v13 'Soon'
Back in September, Tesla's AI team, in a post on Elon Musk's X, targeted releasing FSD v13 by the end of October. In late October, the AI team said it aimed to get the latest FSD v13 by Thanksgiving.
Late Saturday, Elon Musk said on X that it would be "coming soon," but gave no specifics.
Tesla and Musk timelines often slip, especially with FSD.
Musk, who has been saying Tesla will achieve self-driving "this year" or "next year" for almost a decade, recently pegged mid-2025 as when FSD will go unsupervised in Texas and California.
President-elect Donald Trump's transition team reportedly wants to devise a framework for federal self-driving rules, something Trump supporter and adviser Musk has called for. Investors see that as smoothing the path to Tesla robotaxis. But Tesla FSD, despite its name, is still a long way from being self-driving.
Tesla China Discount
Tesla China on Sunday announced a 10,000 yuan ($1,381) discount on the Model Y real-wheel drive and long-range all-wheel drive variants. Buyers must take delivery by year-end. That's on top of a five-year, 0%-interest loan offer.
The vast majority of Tesla's sales in China are for the Model Y, with most of the those the entry-level RWD version.
Tesla is driving to drive up global sales in Q4, offering a variety of discounts and incentives around the market. Musk said on the Q3 earnings call that he expected full-year deliveries to top last year's level.
Tesla China sales have been holding at or above quarterly records, but short delivery wait times have suggested that little cushion.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock fell nearly 4% to 346.38.59 after hitting a fresh two-year high of 361.93 near the open.
Shares declined slightly Monday night, after President-elect Trump vowed to impose sweeping day one tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.
Tesla stock jumped 9.9% last week. Shares have skyrocketed 36.3% so far in November as investors bet on a huge Trump boost.
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