Eli Lilly said Wednesday its obesity drug Zepbound spurred more weight loss than Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in the first-ever head-to-head study.
The study focused on patients with obesity and one medical problem — but not diabetes — over the course of 72 weeks. Zepbound recipients lost up to 20.2% of their body weight, or about 50 pounds. Wegovy patients lost up to 13.7% of their body weight, which is roughly 33 pounds.
"We expect HTH (head-to-head) clinical trial results to help drive accelerating Zepbound market share gains relative to Wegovy," Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in a report.
Eli Lilly stock rose 2% to 829.84, just below its 200-day moving average and 50-day line, MarketSurge chart analysis shows. Shares have a buy point at 972.53, but a decisive move above the 50-day line could offer an aggressive entry.
Novo shares fell 0.2%, closing at 108.97.
Eli Lilly's Approach To Weight Loss
Also, nearly 32% of Zepbound patients lost at least a one-fourth of their body weight compared with 16% for the Wegovy group.
The Eli Lilly-spurred study results are not a shock, given that separate studies have signaled that its Zepbound bests Novo's Wegovy on weight loss.
Zepbound works differently from Wegovy. While Wegovy mimics the GLP-1 hormone to improve feelings of satiety and markers of blood sugar, Zepbound loops in a second hormone called GIPR. Lilly is also working on a triple approach to weight loss, while Viking Therapeutics has said it could eventually have a quadruple-drug in testing for obesity treatment.
But Leerink's Risinger notes Eli Lilly's newest results don't outline safety metrics. Historically, Zepbound has also topped Wegovy on that measure as well.
In a 72-week study of Zepbound, 33% and 11% of patients given a 10-milligram dose of the weight-loss drug had nausea and vomiting, respectively. At 15 milligrams, the nausea and vomiting rates were 31% and 12%, respectively. Novo's 68-week study of Wegovy featured a 2.4-milligram dose of the obesity treatment, and 44% of patients had nausea, while 25% reported vomiting.
Risinger kept his outperform rating on Eli Lilly stock.
$42 Billion In 2029 Sales
Today, Wegovy is the stronger moneymaker. But that paradigm is expected to flip in 2027. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Zepbound to narrowly edge out Wegovy with $18.77 billion in sales vs. $18.7 billion in sales. The gap between the two is expected to widen through at least 2029.
Combined, the two weight-loss drugs are projected to generate a whopping $42 billion-plus in 2029.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.
