An analyst expects Eli Lilly to launch a competitor to weight-loss drugs from Novo Nordisk in 2026 — a year earlier than expected — giving Eli Lilly stock another chance to shine.
On Friday, Lilly posted updates to a trio of studies testing its pill, known as orforglipron, in patients with and without diabetes who are overweight or suffer from obesity. The company also is running a study to determine whether the pill can reduce cardiovascular outcomes like heart attack and stroke.
Lilly expects to finish the studies in the third quarter of 2025. That would put it on deck to launch the new pill in 2026, SVB Securities analyst David Risinger said in a note to clients. Previously, he expected orforglipron to hit the market in 2026.
On the stock market today, Eli Lilly stock sank a fraction to 425.79. But shares remain near a record high.
Eli Lilly Stock And Weight-Loss Drugs
The battle is heating up for weight-loss drugs. There's just one on the market today — Wegovy from Novo. But a number of companies want to change that. They're testing different ways of mimicking GLP-1, a gut hormone that signals to the brain the stomach is full. It also plays a role in helping the pancreas release insulin. Insulin controls blood sugar.
Several drugs target GLP-1 in diabetes treatment. The active ingredient behind Wegovy is known as semaglutide. Novo sells it as Ozempic and Rybelsus for patients with diabetes. The next-generation aims to loop in other mechanisms to improve diabetes treatment and bolster weight loss.
Lilly's Mounjaro is approved for diabetes treatment. The company also hopes the once-weekly shot will soon win approval as a weight-loss drug. Eli Lilly stock has surged in the past on hopes for Mounjaro. But pills are often seen as a more convenient route for patients. That's where orforglipron enters the picture. It's a daily pill.
Pfizer, Novo Battle In Diabetes
This week was marked by several key pieces of news for weight-loss drugs. In a paper, researchers noted Pfizer's GLP-1 pill, danuglipron, helped patients with type 2 diabetes lose 10 pounds over 16 weeks. That topped diabetes drug Ozempic, which led to similar weight loss over 30 weeks.
But danuglipron is a twice-daily pill. Pfizer is also working on a once-a-day pill called lotiglipron. The company is waiting on the results of lotiglipron in Phase 2 testing before deciding which of the two potential diabetes and weight-loss drugs to send into final-phase testing.
Novo Nordisk is also studying an oral version of Wegovy. Over 68 weeks, patients with obesity lost up to 17.4% of their body weight. More than 89% of patients lost at least 5% of their body weight over the same time period.
Eli Lilly stock is well above its key moving averages, according to MarketSmith.com. Shares have a strong Relative Strength Rating of 95, meaning they've performed in the top 5% of all stocks over the last 12 months. Novo shares are in the same boat with a matching IBD Digital RS Rating.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
