A population prediction model has projected the elephant population in Tamil Nadu to cross the 3,500-mark in 2022 and further increase steadily, after having declined steeply in 2017 when the last synchronised estimation was conducted.
According to the 2017 census, the elephant population decreased to 2,761 from 4,015 in 2012.
According to the Forest Department, a population prediction model, presented by K. Baranidharan of the Department of Forest Products and Wildlife at the Forest College and Research Institute (FCRI), Mettupalayam, has projected the number of elephants at 3,592 in 2022. The synchronised elephant census is expected to take place in the State this year.
“The population projection was based on the data of the past census. This will help the Department develop tools to assess the carrying-capacity of our forests,” said Mr. Baranidharan, who presented the model before the recently appointed four-member committee to study the facts of elephant deaths in the past one year.
Based on the data on elephant mortalities until 2019, Mr. Baranidharan has also projected an increase in the death of elephants in the current year and onward.
The committee will propose that the Forest Department utilise the services of the wildlife wing of the FCRI to develop an elephant population prediction model and to come out with a protocol for assessing the carrying-capacity of habitats. It discussed seeking the assistance of the Tamil Nadu Veterinary and Animal Sciences University to develop wildlife disease surveillance protocols and wildlife health management plans for elephants. It also discussed engaging the Department of Wildlife Biology, Government Arts College, Udhagamandalam, to prepare a status report on the issues of habitat connectivity and fragmentation.
Assistant Professor B. Ramakrishnan of the college briefed the committee about challenges in habitat protection.
Deadliest phase
The maximum number of elephants in the Tamil Nadu side of the Nilgiri Elephant Reserve (NER) died in March and April between 1992 and 2019, according to an analysis done by independent biologist G. Sivasubramanian.
His analysis, based on the post-mortem reports of wild elephants done in the 28 years, found that 210 elephants died in March and April, out of the 940 elephants that died in the NER during the period. The data were presented before the committee.
“Elephant mortality will be high in the summer when they do not get enough nutrition owing to the lack of grass in the forests and because they depend solely on tree fodder,” he said.
