It's as if everyone on the campaign trail has been trying to solve a fiendishly difficult algebra problem: solve for x, where x is the support independent candidates will receive at the ACT election in 2024.
No one quite agrees on the terms of the problem. Not all the information is there. The parameters are completely vague. No one has properly reliable or consistent polling. It's less a solvable puzzle and more a political headache.
Independents for the win?
No one really agrees whether the level of support for independents is genuine in the community or the product of high levels of media attention. Confirmation bias stalks all the campaigns.
Some of the more exuberant pundits have boldly predicted five independents could take up seats in the Legislative Assembly after ballots are counted. Others are less sure.
If the independent vote splinters across the large number of candidates and fails to coalesce as preferences flow, it may leave independents with nothing for all their hype, effort and enthusiasm.
Just what happens with the independent vote on Saturday night is the big question. Its answer is set to determine the outcome of the 2024 election. The solution as devised by voters will be made clear when their ballots are counted.
Calm waters for Labor campaign
After more than two decades, one would expect Labor to be in a more haphazard, fragile, tattered, battle-worn position.
But its campaign has been largely free of gaffes - Chief Minister Andrew Barr did get it wrong on the cost of a Liberal policy, a significant mistake Labor put down to a typo. Labor's fractious factional preselections, always a bad distraction for the party, had been resolved very early in the year.
Liberals stumble
The Liberals' campaign has had more stumbles. The policies put up by the opposition have been designed to appeal - with good success - to popular sentiment, while skirting around questions of detail.
But by the time Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee gave a journalist the middle finger after a heated press conference exchange, the Liberals had already been running roughshod towards election day.
The party dumped a sitting MLA from its ticket just two weeks before candidate declarations were due. Then there was Darren Roberts' pseudonymous Facebook page, which made and endorsed a series of derogatory posts.
And then shadow attorney-general Peter Cain had to apologise for a 2002 workbook he wrote in which he said Aboriginal people benefited from the arrival of European colonists after it made its way to The Guardian.
A "rogue campaign worker" was blamed in the final week for sending a text message endorsing just one Liberal candidate.
Each incident pointed to a party still uncomfortable with itself, internally divided over what its purpose and mission is, and how to win the election. Lee has talked often of putting forward a "positive vision" for Canberra, but she was often quick to divert back to harsh criticism of the current government.
Cracks show in The Greens amid door knocking success
The Greens have had serious cracks in their vetting process exposed. The party, which has sought to position itself as a bold alternative to laggard major parties, has struggled to shape the conversation in the way it had hoped.
Greens Murrumbidgee candidate Harini Rangarajan, 20, had a series of what the party said were "creative writing" exercises thrust into the spotlight. Greens leader Shane Rattenbury conceded they could be concerning to people in the community. The posts included passages about desiring to be a martyr and compared Osama bin Laden, the terrorist leader, to Jesus Christ.
James Cruz, a support candidate in Kurrajong, ran into trouble when The Australian found a series of old social media posts he made, including one in which he said he wanted to "f---ing kill politicians".
Both instances were damaging distractions for the party, but were centred on candidates very unlikely to win seats.
The Greens' strength as a campaigning force has come from its ground campaign. The party might not have invented door knocking, but they certainly have made the technique their own. With no corflutes on public land, the Greens set themselves a challenge to drive name recognition and visibility.
Swipes and attacks
Campaigns come in a variety of different flavours. Take the 2023 NSW state election campaign, which the McKinnon Prizes recognised Labor's Chris Minns and the Liberals' Dominic Perrottet for "civil conduct and respectful leadership".
It's hard to see Lee and Barr being recognised in the same way.
The Liberals released a series of attack ads, including one riffing on the popular 2000 "Not Happy, Jan" ad from the Yellow Pages. Jan was replaced with an actor portraying Barr. The party then ran a campaign called "Not Happy, Andrew".
Labor's attack ads - including one which forced an 11th-hour retraction, the day before polls closed - sought to highlight the most conservative elements of the Canberra Liberals. "So far right, they're wrong," Labor warned of their opponents. Labor sought to link independents with the "risk" of a Liberal government.
The opposition also released an ad fully generated by artificial intelligence, which featured "Bob", a fictional character who continued to vote Labor each election despite being unhappy with the performance. The Liberals' ad said, "Don't be a Bob."
The Liberals' focus in advertising has seemed to focus on attacking the government rather than promoting their ideas, while Labor's ads have been slightly more positive.
But there was also a moment where the leaders had a chance to say something nice about each other at this week's Property Council ACT leaders' debate. Barr, in a rather odd remark, said he and Lee drove the same car but his was more efficient.
Lee's more considered response showed the Liberal leader at her best.
"Despite our political differences, I do pay respect to the fact he has been a leader and obviously has enjoyed the confidence of his colleagues to have remained leader for that long and the enormous sacrifices that he and his family would have made for such a long time," she said.
Less than 20 minutes later, Lee gave a journalist the middle finger after a heated press conference.
With all these elements, it's little wonder there is no consistent agreement on how the conundrums of the 2024 election will be resolved by voters at the ballot box.
Whatever the case, voters have had the chance to see the breadth and depth of choices available to them. That's why they say on campaign trails that the voters never get it wrong.
